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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-u-s-presidential-contest-october-16-2024/

 

  • Harris (52%) leads Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) among likely voters.

  • The contest is tighter among registered voters. Among the general electorate, Harris receives 51% to 48% for Trump. In early October, the same margin separated Harris (50%) and Trump (47%) among the broader electorate.

  • Trump (54%) leads Harris (44%) among independents who are likely to vote, widening the 4-point edge Trump (50%) had against Harris (46%) previously.

  • Trump (53%) leads Harris (47%) among men who are likely to vote while Harris (57%) has the advantage over Trump (42%) among women.

  • While members of Gen X divide (51% for Harris to 48% for Trump), Harris has majority support among GenZ/Millennials (53%) and among Baby Boomers/the Silent-Greatest Generations (55%).

Trump Favorable Rating Upside Down… Divide About Harris

  • 44% of adults nationally have a favorable impression of Trump while 49% have an unfavorable one.
  • 45% of residents have a favorable opinion of Harris compared with 46% who have a negative impression of her.

Nearly Half of Voters Plan to Vote on Election Day

47% of likely voters nationally say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. 29% report they will cast their ballot at an early voting location, and 24% think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.

Majority Disapprove of Biden’s Job Performance

While 40% of Americans approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office, 53% disapprove. Americans are nearly twice as likely to strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job (41%) than to strongly approve (22%).

 
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I honestly think she may lose Michigan and that would be a huge hurdle to winning the Presidency. I don't think Wayne country (Detroit and Deerborn) will go to Trump despite what some people think about the Muslim vote; but Macomb will be red again, and Oakland could very well be a toss up. Those are the 3 most populace counties in the state which account for probably over 3 million votes. Almost 5.5 million people voted in 2020 in Michigan, so you absolutely have to win 2 of those 3 counties to win the state...

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40 minutes ago, ZRod said:

I honestly think she may lose Michigan and that would be a huge hurdle to winning the Presidency. I don't think Wayne country (Detroit and Deerborn) will go to Trump despite what some people think about the Muslim vote; but Macomb will be red again, and Oakland could very well be a toss up. Those are the 3 most populace counties in the state which account for probably over 3 million votes. Almost 5.5 million people voted in 2020 in Michigan, so you absolutely have to win 2 of those 3 counties to win the state...

 

I'll check in from the mitten with the opposite take...

 

I started to worry a while ago. Somehow my intuition swung back. I'm not worried about it. I think there's gonna be a surprising edge of decent people who end up breaking left and giving her a small but big enough edge.

 

I don't think there suburbs are going to revert to suddenly liking Trump's GOP after trending hard away for several cycles in a row. And Detroit will deliver. There's a lot of noise in recent polls and some are being cooked deliberately to create a bulls#!t narrative of late Trump momentum.

 

I'm going to be nervously looking eastward at our friends in PA to come through on election night...

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On 10/15/2024 at 6:27 PM, Moiraine said:

 

 

 

There's an interesting article/post from Pew Research that shows how polling has changed since 2016/2020. This graph shows that. I use RCP (real clear politics) a lot, but the problem I'm realizing now is comparing where polls were in 2016 and 2020 to 2024 is the pollsters are entirely different. If polls had been accurate back then, they wouldn't have shown Biden leading PA by 6.4%. He ended up winning it by 1.2%, so the RCP average was terrible. But then... so was fivethirtyeight's. Harris is down 0.3% at RCP right now, but there are a bunch of new pollsters included in that. On Nate Silver's website, where he tries to filter out the junk polls, Harris is up 0.6%. I still think things are looking bad for Harris but hopefully the polls actually are more accurate today than they were 4 years ago. If they are overweighting Democrats again, Trump is winning by a lot.

On a semi-related note, why does it seem like every time something good and popular changes ownership, it goes to s#!t? The fivethirtyeight website sucks ever since ABC bought it and Silver got fired.

 

SR_24.08.28_facts-about-polling_3.png?re

 

Key things to know about election polls in the U.S. | Pew Research Center

 

 

 

I was thinking about this and going to make a post about it but yours is a great jumping off point. +1. Also I personally find Silver smug and at times grating but he's clearly SUPER good at what he does so he can afford to be. 538 is useless without him at the helm.

 

Despite taking body blows the last few cycles, pollsters worth their salt will re-calibrate their methodology to improve between cycles if they obviously screwed up. They definitely underweighted Trump in 2016 and 2020, though I would argue the latter was a historically incredibly difficult cycle to model accurately due to weird variables related to COVID. In 2018 and 2022 polls were actually pretty accurate, but midterms are such a different beast they're hardly worth comparing.

 

I think a lot of the bad rap for polling is simply people not understanding what probabilistic modeling of elections mean. Silvers 2016 model finished with a ~30% chance of Trump winning, which is pretty robust - and that's what happened. People want them to be a simple either-or prediction that is concrete, and that's not what they actually do.

 

Lastly, this. I don't know much about this rando D strategist, but I buy his theory: Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’

 

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As polls seem to indicate that former president Donald Trump has momentum in some swing states with 24 days remaining until the Nov. 5 presidential election, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says: Don’t buy it.

 

About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has happened.

 

The purpose is two-fold, Rosenberg said: To excite Trump’s base and discourage Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters, while also providing Trump with ammunition to say the election was rigged if he loses.

 

In a tweet thread, Rosenberg explained:

 

“Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12 have right/GOP affiliations. Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning — when he isn’t — escalated in last few days.

 

“I urge journalists and researchers to dive into FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have flooded the zone again. MT, PA, NC were initial targets but now it’s all 7 battleground states.

 

“This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon — and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian.”

 

Rosenberg pointed to a New York Times autopsy on the 2022 midterm elections: “The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative.”

 

Rosenberg also referred to a recent New York Times report — “Elon Musk is going all-in to elect Trump” — that shows coordination between Twitter/X owner Elon Musk and the Trump campaign.

 

Musk shut down a Twitter/X account that published hacked materials from the Trump campaign. And according to the New York Times, Musk and his team have set up a war room in Pittsburgh to strategize with a team of lawyers and public-relations professionals to help Trump win.

 

On Thursday, American Muckrakers posted about emails it received detailing how the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports, which claims to be nonpartisan, shared polling results with Trump advisers and campaign officials like Dan Scavino, Susie Wiles, and John McLaughlin.

 

“More than 25 organizations are now involved in red wave 2024,” Rosenberg tweeted. “Last week, they dropped 27 polls. This week it’s more. Ferocity of effort to make it look like Trump is winning clearly means they don’t think he is.”

 

Make of it what you will. But it's certainly plausible that the usual suspects of wealthy Trump-loving right-wing a$$h@!es are dumping a ton of dark money to try to propagate a narrative of a late Trump surge that's built on deliberately cooked right-wing polls to try to influence public opinion as the election nears. They're all bulls#!t artists and they're still supplying their usual product, the bulls#!t has just evolved and is spread via different avenues than before.

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16 minutes ago, SECHusker said:

 

Clip 1: She was pissed!  You could tell that Bret knew she had a point and he couldn't really stop her.

 

Clip 2: Just before that, Bret asked about the direction of the country.  I wished she would have talked about how that high number of folks that think we are on the wrong track mostly feel hopeless about the state of our politics.  Would have been a chance to explain how she will focus on bringing folks together.  Instead she really looked like she was hiding from it.  Bret kind of bailed her out by asking the question about Trump voters so she could eventually make that point... kind of.

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48 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

The choice should be clear.  It's sad for America that so many can't see it.

 

 

Just a hunch,  maybe we have a Margrett Thatcher in the making -  a leader with high principles and ethics.  

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