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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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5 hours ago, Apsu said:

 

Trump was correct - Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine would have been better solutions than the experimental mRNA jabs that made big Pharma very wealthy.
Just like Jomala is helping out the MIC.

Really man, stay away from conspiracy nonsense. My schtick is normally being condescending towards right wingers, but in this case, I genuinely mean it. 

 

Stay away from conspiracy nonsense. It's going to drive people close to you away. 

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Right leaning polls setting up the narrative that if trump loses it is because the election was stolen.  One such poll says the Felon will get over 73% of the vote :laughpound   Another poll is connected to a group co-founded by JD Vance - how's that for objectivity:dunno

 

I hope the right is overconfident, I hope they have overestimated their strength.  I hope that Harris surrprises and wins all 7 battleground states and blows the trump narrative out of the water.  

 

Article quoted in part below

 

https://dnyuz.com/2024/10/31/why-the-right-thinks-trump-is-running-away-with-the-race/

Quote

 

The torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for Donald J. Trump.

They stood out amid the hundreds of others indicating a dead heat in the presidential election. But they had something in common: They were commissioned by right-leaning groups with a vested interest in promoting Republican strength

These surveys have had marginal, if any, impact on polling averages, which either do not include the partisan polls or give them little weight. Yet some argue that the real purpose of partisan polls, along with other expectation-setting metrics such as political betting markets, is directed at a different goal entirely: building a narrative of unstoppable momentum for Mr. Trump.

The partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election and — perhaps more important — cementing the idea that the only way Mr. Trump can lose to Vice President Kamala Harris is if the election is rigged. Polls promising a Republican victory, the theory runs, could be held up as evidence of cheating if that victory does not come to pass.

“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” said Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. “Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.”

Last week, the right-wing influencer Ian Miles Cheong shared a survey with his 1.1 million followers on X. The forecast from a new polling company suggested, without sharing its methodology, that the former president would take 74.3 percent of the national vote — a landslide unprecedented in American history.

“Trump is absolutely going to win,” Mr. Cheong wrote. “The data shows it.”

In the final stretch of the campaign in 2020, Republican-aligned pollsters released 15 presidential election polls of swing states. In the same period this year, they have released 37, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight. Of those 37, all but seven had Mr. Trump in the lead.

That increase comes as the volume of nonpartisan polls — such as those commissioned by major news organizations — have dropped significantly, though they still make up a majority of the polls released. Of the nonpartisan surveys released in the final weeks of this year’s campaign, roughly half showed a lead for Mr. Trump.

And that is counting only polls that are explicitly designated as politically aligned by FiveThirtyEight, which sets a high bar for defining partisan polls. There have been additional polls conducted by firms with a history of favoring Republicans or with a public record of pro-Republican rhetoric that have not been designated as partisan by any of the aggregators.

Other factors have also fueled the perception of Mr. Trump’s strength. Betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi that allow people to place bets on election outcomes have seen a spike in Mr. Trump’s favor over the past month — one that does not track with the overall state of the race as captured by reputable polling firms.

That surge appears to have been pushed almost entirely by a very small number of high-value bets from just four accounts linked to a French national. Those accounts have collectively placed $30 million on a Trump victory this month.

Mr. Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, have nonetheless promoted the betting markets — although they are opaque, largely unregulated and not a scientific way to gauge public polls. Mr. Trump cited Polymarket in a recent speech, saying, “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.”

A spokesperson for Polymarket declined to provide comment for this article.

The trend is a continuation from the 2022 midterms, when a similar stream of Republican-aligned surveys late in the cycle — some conducted by two high school students in Pennsylvania — forecast a “red wave” that would deliver large majorities for Republicans in both the House and the Senate. While nonpartisan polls proved to be quite accurate, the partisan surveys were wrong.

This year, the partisan polls have attracted more public scrutiny, and they have generally tracked closer to other polls. In a race this tight, it is possible that their slight tilt toward Mr. Trump will prove to be accurate.

The partisan polls do not appear to be having a significant impact on the polling averages calculated by news organizations, including The New York Times. That is because those groups do not treat all polls equally, and adjust their models to give less weight to surveys from pollsters without reliable track records or with links to a political party. Some polls are excluded from their averages entirely.

One widely criticized poll in October, for example, showed a four-point lead for Ms. Harris among registered voters in Pennsylvania but a one-point lead for Mr. Trump among likely voters. The poll was commissioned by American Greatness, a right-wing media outlet linked to a conservative advocacy group co-founded by Senator JD Vance of Ohio, Mr. Trump’s running mate.

FiveThirtyEight does not mark American Greatness polls as partisan, but it did take the questionable findings into account and, as a result, its overall polling average for the critical swing state moved only by one-tenth of a point.

ABC News, which owns FiveThirtyEight, declined to make the aggregator’s editorial director of data analytics, G. Elliott Morris, available for comment.

Overall, Mr. Trump has made slight gains in the national polling average over the past two weeks, and the battleground state polling averages have tightened. Still, the race remains uncommonly close.

 

 

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This should turn out well.  Let's allow a looney anti-vaxxer inform policy and make polio, measles, tetanus, great again because all those whispy bearded scientists who spent their entire careers in fields way more heady than any MAGA turd could handle are all on the take.  But Trump isn't.  :blink:.

 

I guess maybe it'll help the social security issue if we take the life expectancy back to 1950s levels.

 

Good luck being able to travel out of the country 

 

 

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Wait...so only people that are in that field should have a say on things?

 

What an amazing concept!  

 

I wonder which super smart amazing poster has said that OVER AND OVER...

 

 

(This does exclude coaching and firemen, we can all weigh in on those jobs)

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What’s with the “Voter Protection” services in PA?   Interesting tactic.   
 

I was also under the assumption that if a voter was in line prior to the cut off time, they had to be allowed to vote that day.  Apparently some videos in PA show that to not be the case.  Seems a bit sketchy. 

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Just now, Archy1221 said:

What’s with the “Voter Protection” services in PA?   Interesting tactic.   
 

I was also under the assumption that if a voter was in line prior to the cut off time, they had to be allowed to vote that day.  Apparently some videos in PA show that to not be the case.  Seems a bit sketchy. 

I know in Nebraska if you are in line, you still get to vote. 

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1 hour ago, Scarlet said:

This should turn out well.  Let's allow a looney anti-vaxxer inform policy and make polio, measles, tetanus, great again because all those whispy bearded scientists who spent their entire careers in fields way more heady than any MAGA turd could handle are all on the take.  But Trump isn't.  :blink:.

 

I guess maybe it'll help the social security issue if we take the life expectancy back to 1950s levels.

 

Good luck being able to travel out of the country 

 

 

Personally, I hope they do it all. Take vaccines off the market, institute tariffs that cause inflation, deport millions of immigrants causing a massive economic depression, and slash government spending by trillions causing a collapse of social programs that benefit the elderly and children.

 

Right wingers deserve the America they envision. 

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Personally, I hope they do it all. Take vaccines off the market, institute tariffs that cause inflation, deport millions of immigrants causing a massive economic depression, and slash government spending by trillions causing a collapse of social programs that benefit the elderly and children.

 

Thank you for your input.

Only dishonest left wing morons are saying that all vaccines should come off the market.
Common sense says that an experimental and dangerous vaccine that did not work should not have been mandated on the public.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Personally, I hope they do it all. Take vaccines off the market, institute tariffs that cause inflation, deport millions of immigrants causing a massive economic depression, and slash government spending by trillions causing a collapse of social programs that benefit the elderly and children.

 

Right wingers deserve the America they envision. 

 

 

Somehow, this type of thinking occasionally makes me feel better. I'm not sure why. But I sometimes think we deserve it if we vote for it. But the problem is we didn't all vote for it, so we don't all deserve it, and "I told you so" isn't going to feel very good after all of this happens and things are s#!tty for everyone.

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15 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Somehow, this type of thinking occasionally makes me feel better. I'm not sure why. But I sometimes think we deserve it if we vote for it. But the problem is we didn't all vote for it, so we don't all deserve it, and "I told you so" isn't going to feel very good after all of this happens and things are s#!tty for everyone.

This.  I'd rather say "holy crap! I can't believe that actually worked" versus "I told you so"

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