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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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13 hours ago, TGHusker said:

Everything is cyclical. The GOP may very well dominate in the next 2 elections but they will overplay their hand and I we see a return to a more center government   If they continue this hard crazy right push others will eventually rise up to counter 

You're not wrong, however, the coming GOP dominance has little to do with policy, economics, or anything like that. 

 

They're going to win because of massive systemic advantages built into the electoral system, there isn't much Democrats can do about it.

 

There are a lot of reasons for this: educational polarization, urbanization and the decline of rural America, demographic shifts, etc. All of it adds up to a situation in which Democrats win the popular vote in elections by larger and larger amounts over time, but they will lose control of Congress, the Presidency, and the ability to nominate judges to the Judiciary as a result.

 

An example of policy not mattering anymore is the fact that Republicans haven't even bothered to run a policy platform in 2020 nor do they plan on having one in 2022. They don't need anything other than white grievance to win elections.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

You're not wrong, however, the coming GOP dominance has little to do with policy, economics, or anything like that. 

 

They're going to win because of massive systemic advantages built into the electoral system, there isn't much Democrats can do about it.

 

There are a lot of reasons for this: educational polarization, urbanization and the decline of rural America, demographic shifts, etc. All of it adds up to a situation in which Democrats win the popular vote in elections by larger and larger amounts over time, but they will lose control of Congress, the Presidency, and the ability to nominate judges to the Judiciary as a result.

 

An example of policy not mattering anymore is the fact that Republicans haven't even bothered to run a policy platform in 2020 nor do they plan on having one in 2022. They don't need anything other than white grievance to win elections.

I just can't see a R president winning in the next election.  

 

Congress, sure.  But I can't see how the next president will be a Republican. 

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3 hours ago, teachercd said:

I just can't see a R president winning in the next election.  

 

Congress, sure.  But I can't see how the next president will be a Republican. 

It depends, I think if Trump runs it would be 50/50. A non-Trump candidate probably has a mich higher chance of winning. The issue, again, is not about popularity or politics. The fact is, elections are much more difficult for Democrats to win than Republicans given the institutions and the systemic rural biases they have.

 

Using PVI as an example (Partisan Voting Index), in order to win the Presidency in 2016, Hillary Clinton needed to win the national popular vote by ~2.3%. She won by only 2.1%, as a result Democrats lost the Presidency.

 

In 2020, the electorate grew more conservative. The PVI number Joe Biden needed to win by grew from 2.3% to 4.3%. He won by 4.4%, and as a result barely won the electoral college.

 

This trend is continuing to grow. By 2028, the amount of votes Democrats need to win by is going to grow to a point where it simply may not be possible for them to win. It's not impossible that they win the national popular vote by 5.5%, translating into 10 million votes, and they lose all 3 branches of Congress in the process.

 

Just for fun, consider other facts that illustrate the systemic problems within our elections and why Democrats are more or less doomed.  In the 2020 election, assuming an exact 50/50 split of votes for Democrat and Republican Senators, Republicans would've won 62 seats, a super majority. Another fun number of why Democrats can kiss the Senate goodbye for the foreseeable future, by the year 2040, 30% of Americans will elect 68% of Senators. 

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7 hours ago, teachercd said:

I just can't see a R president winning in the next election.  

 

Congress, sure.  But I can't see how the next president will be a Republican. 

That all depends on two things:

 

a) who the Dem nominee is.

 

b) Does the Repub candidate run latching himself/herself to Trump heavily?

 

If the Dems put up someone reasonable and the Repub ties himself heavily to Trump, I can see the Dem winning.  If those two things are flipped, I can see the Dem winning.

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8 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

That all depends on two things:

 

a) who the Dem nominee is.

 

b) Does the Repub candidate run latching himself/herself to Trump heavily?

 

If the Dems put up someone reasonable and the Repub ties himself heavily to Trump, I can see the Dem winning.  If those two things are flipped, I can see the Dem winning.

I guess things to ask...If Trump runs does he get the same amount of votes as last time?

 

If Trump runs will that bring out more D voters?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

It depends, I think if Trump runs it would be 50/50. A non-Trump candidate probably has a mich higher chance of winning. The issue, again, is not about popularity or politics. The fact is, elections are much more difficult for Democrats to win than Republicans given the institutions and the systemic rural biases they have.

 

Using PVI as an example (Partisan Voting Index), in order to win the Presidency in 2016, Hillary Clinton needed to win the national popular vote by ~2.3%. She won by only 2.1%, as a result Democrats lost the Presidency.

 

In 2020, the electorate grew more conservative. The PVI number Joe Biden needed to win by grew from 2.3% to 4.3%. He won by 4.4%, and as a result barely won the electoral college.

 

This trend is continuing to grow. By 2028, the amount of votes Democrats need to win by is going to grow to a point where it simply may not be possible for them to win. It's not impossible that they win the national popular vote by 5.5%, translating into 10 million votes, and they lose all 3 branches of Congress in the process.

 

Just for fun, consider other facts that illustrate the systemic problems within our elections and why Democrats are more or less doomed.  In the 2020 election, assuming an exact 50/50 split of votes for Democrat and Republican Senators, Republicans would've won 62 seats, a super majority. Another fun number of why Democrats can kiss the Senate goodbye for the foreseeable future, by the year 2040, 30% of Americans will elect 68% of Senators. 

 

So democrats need to stop overloading themselves into the cities and move back into the boonies with the rest of us and balance back out the vote. Think of it as the great repopulating of rural America. Thank how many other things this might help as well. Over crowded city schools, underutilized rural schools, rebalance out income and property taxes. Restabilize the housing market. etc. 

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2 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I guess things to ask...If Trump runs does he get the same amount of votes as last time?

 

If Trump runs will that bring out more D voters?

 

 

Yes, and....yes.

 

Which, should mean the Dem wins again but that all depends on how the electoral vote falls and distribution of those votes.

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2 hours ago, NebraskaHarry said:

I'd also wonder how many Republicans wont vote because they think the elections are rigged so what's the point.

Or how many republican voters won't vote because it's not Trump?

 

It's purely based on the people I know around me.  There were far more "new" voters that took an interest in politics because of Trump and Facebook than there were "old" voters that chose not to participate because of Trump.  Will all those new GOP voters continue to support a more sane candidate?

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3 hours ago, funhusker said:

Or how many republican voters won't vote because it's not Trump?

 

It's purely based on the people I know around me.  There were far more "new" voters that took an interest in politics because of Trump and Facebook than there were "old" voters that chose not to participate because of Trump.  Will all those new GOP voters continue to support a more sane candidate?

Not sure how it is for you as a teacher butt out of all the people I teach with they are all "anti-trump" but...trump still got a lot of votes.  So I am guessing there is a lot of lying.  

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48 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Not sure how it is for you as a teacher butt out of all the people I teach with they are all "anti-trump" but...trump still got a lot of votes.  So I am guessing there is a lot of lying.  

There is only one person in my building who actually openly said she voted for Trump. Several people that would quietly walk away when the topic came up.  But I’d say at least 60% of our building was very anti-Trump as well; even a couple life long Republicans.

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5 minutes ago, funhusker said:

There is only one person in my building who actually openly said she voted for Trump. Several people that would quietly walk away when the topic came up.  But I’d say at least 60% of our building was very anti-Trump as well; even a couple life long Republicans.

that is funny...because in my building I only have 1 openly trump supporter...

 

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