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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I think I've expressed this to you, but because of the increasing Red-shift of rural America, it's likely that a Republican candidate has a 55% chance to win no matter the econmic conditions of the country or who the candidates are.

 

Even in a hypothetical race between Herschel Walker (R) and the best Dem candidate you can think of, the odds are in Rs favor for systemic reasons. It doesn't matter what they do, say, their personalities, etc. I can explain why in a more detailed post if you'd like, but just know: it's systemic. 

 

Lastly, we need to put aside the nonsense that Biden won't or shouldn't run in 2024. If he's even remotely healthy, he provides Democrats far and away the best chance to win (45%?). Any other candidate lowers their odds considerably. NOTE: this is simply because incumbent candidates have an advantage, it has nothing to do with his quality as a President or the potential/lack thereof of Dem candidates. 

I guess what I am getting at is 

Why would Joe not get the same amount of votes or right at that number, a second time?

Who voted for him last time that is not voting for him this time?

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24 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I guess what I am getting at is 

Why would Joe not get the same amount of votes or right at that number, a second time?

Who voted for him last time that is not voting for him this time?

Good question.  As it stands now with the current events of weak gun control and Trumpism, I cannot think of a single Republican I’d vote for ahead of Biden.  I don’t care how old he is.  

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On 6/1/2022 at 10:08 AM, Dr. Strangelove said:

And tax cuts for the wealthy is the superior alternative? 

 

Most of the time, Republicans don't acknowledge problems as even existing - like Climate Change - to even offer a contrasting policy choice.

 

The party of ZERO answers.  None.  Zilch.  They sure can yell and use fear as their MO however...  Woof

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4 minutes ago, Decoy73 said:

Good question.  As it stands now with the current events of weak gun control and Trumpism, I cannot think of a single Republican I’d vote for ahead of Biden.  I don’t care how old he is.  

Right, so where is the thought process of "a D won't win"

 

Or are people just not being honest about their vote?

 

 

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5 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Right, so where is the thought process of "a D won't win"

 

Or are people just not being honest about their vote?

 

 

 

 

The existential threat to our democracy isn't quite as immediate or explicit as it was when Trump was actually in office.

 

Biden would probably win re-election if its against Trump, because people will mobilize against the cheeto, but if he doesn't win enough people will probably not bother after the exhaustion of the last few years.

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48 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I guess what I am getting at is 

Why would Joe not get the same amount of votes or right at that number, a second time?

Who voted for him last time that is not voting for him this time?

He probably will. But the answer to Democrats systemic problems go to demographic shifts happening nearly all over the world. That is, nearly anybody with any semblance of upward mobility moves towards cities and away from rural areas.

 

When people move to cities, those areas tend to vote for Democrats. The rural areas people leave behind become worse off economically and vote for Republicans. 

 

As a result of this shift, people are leaving states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc. They've become more and more conservative. From 2016 to 2020, Hillary had to win the popular vote by ~2.3% to win those states in 2016 while Biden had to win by ~4.4% in 2020. By 2024, it's likely Democrats would need 5.5%, a nearly impossible margin. A good example of this are former swing states like Iowa and Ohio, which are now simply unwinnable for Democrats.

 

It's simultaneously true that those citizens are moving to states and turning them blue. However, there's an imbalance: young people are leaving MANY rural states but are moving to relatively FEW urban cities, like Phoenix or Atlanta. The number of states turning more Red outnumber states turning more blue. This matters because the Electoral College and Senate heavily favor geography in their electoral outcomes.

 

To give this trend more context, by 2040 ~70% of Americans (producing nearly ~75% of GDP and nearly all useful tax revenues) will live in states represented by 30 Senators.  If you think the division in this country is bad now, wait 2 decades for it to really heat up.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

As a result of this shift, people are leaving states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc

Between 2010 and 2020 growth rate:


Nevada grew 15% = 1.5% per year

Wisconsin grew 3.6% = .36% per year(probably because some are moving out and some are moving in)

Pennsylvania grew 2.4% = .24% per year(same thing)

 

US grew about .5% per year.  So, one was above and the other two were below but not much.  The population in the US just hasn't grown much over that time frame.

 

I think there is a bigger shift to cities within those states from rural areas than a major shift out of those states to other states.  Which, makes what you're saying true, but within states.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

And, how would a Republican President change that?

We already discussed the inflation  piece and you keep asking.  Why???  Go read what I’ve already posted to you.  
 

Also already posted about gas prices and how the admin hurts or better yet doesn’t help the cause.  Go read those.  
 

Wish the adults we were promised would get here sometime soon:dunno

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