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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

We already discussed the inflation  piece and you keep asking.  Why???  Go read what I’ve already posted to you.  
 

Also already posted about gas prices and how the admin hurts or better yet doesn’t help the cause.  Go read those.  
 

Wish the adults we were promised would get here sometime soon:dunno

LOL....really?  I must have missed those.  The only thing I've seen from you on oil is posting a video from John Stossel. :laughpound.....which was quite hilarious since it didn't have any real industry information.

 

I've asked you about policies and your response was....use google.

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1 hour ago, knapplc said:

That's bonkers. 

You forgot a couple of these:  :blink::blink:

 

And I agree.  Biden would be doing the country a disfavor if he chose to run.  He'd be doing his party a disfavor as well.  The Dems need a high quality Presidential nominee and VP nominee to be able to overcome what is setting up to being a very difficult election cycle.  We the GOP set up to potentially win back the House and maybe the Senate, the next 2 years will be a hard time for the WH.  If we think Biden is old now....

For the good of the country, I'd like to see both parties start fresh.  HOwever, I have little faith that the GOP will nominate someone other than a trump like candidate. 

That leaves it up to the Dems.  If the 1/6 committee and AG Garland dispatch of trump to new living quarters, then the Dems will have a great chance wt the right candidate to retain the WH.  But Biden isn't that candidate and I don't think Harris is either. (anyone who giggles when a serious question is asked of her can't be taken seriously). 

I'm not familiar wt Dem governors but surely there are some other than California's governor Newsom who could have broad appeal.  The Dems had way too many senators running in 2020- and only Sanders really got any traction - and the rest ganged up on him to take the nomination path away from him. 

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3 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

LOL....really?  I must have missed those.  The only thing I've seen from you on oil is posting a video from John Stossel. :laughpound.....which was quite hilarious since it didn't have any real industry information.

 

I've asked you about policies and your response was....use google.

why aren’t energy companies increasing output?  Couldn’t think of a better time for it right?  So why?

 

 

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1 minute ago, Archy1221 said:

why aren’t energy companies increasing output?  Couldn’t think of a better time for it right?  So why?

 

 

I've posted that multiple times with articles from the industry, polls from industry executives and industry data.  Go read those.  You choose to ignore that to just parrot party political talking points.

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4 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

I think a lot of people voted for "Not-Trump", if GOP runs someone without the baggage, Biden's # goes down significantly. 

 

Exactly. I couldn't guess at the percentage of "against cheeto" votes vs. "for Biden" votes, but there's more than enough of the former to vote Biden out of office.

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1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

Between 2010 and 2020 growth rate:


Nevada grew 15% = 1.5% per year

Wisconsin grew 3.6% = .36% per year(probably because some are moving out and some are moving in)

Pennsylvania grew 2.4% = .24% per year(same thing)

 

US grew about .5% per year.  So, one was above and the other two were below but not much.  The population in the US just hasn't grown much over that time frame.

 

I think there is a bigger shift to cities within those states from rural areas than a major shift out of those states to other states.  Which, makes what you're saying true, but within states.

 

 

You're completely correct, a good example is what we see in Omaha, a district Biden won. Or Lincoln with a Dem mayor and city council.

 

What I attempted to do was explain something complex in the simplest way possible.  The important factor in this demographic shift is education level, which is now the biggest indicator of voting behavior. 

 

In the scenario I described, college graduates are moving to cities. Often within their own states, but increasingly to cities outside of their state. 

 

The raw total of shift might not appear to shift much, but some of the influx of population for a particular state might be immigrants while the exodus are college graduates. The mix of incoming and outgoing matters, and it's why Democrat strategists think they're facing a borderline apocalypse. There's a lot of doomerism for Democrats, for good reason.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

As a result of this shift, people are leaving states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc. They've become more and more conservative. From 2016 to 2020, Hillary had to win the popular vote by ~2.3% to win those states in 2016 while Biden had to win by ~4.4% in 2020. By 2024, it's likely Democrats would need 5.5%, a nearly impossible margin. A good example of this are former swing states like Iowa and Ohio, which are now simply unwinnable for Democrats.

Do you understand net migration and which states are increasing the most and losing the most per 1,000 people?  

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6 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

9% inflation 

$5 gas

Negative ROI for the markets since Jan 2021

 

nice platform you folks have there!!

If 2022 was for a presidential election, no way Biden wins. Anything can happen by 2024.

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42 minutes ago, nic said:

If 2022 was for a presidential election, no way Biden wins. Anything can happen by 2024.

 

In contemporary politics, I'd agree.

 

Do you think anything else has happened in the last, say, six years that may make contemporary political analysis invalid?

 

Anything?

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5 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Do you understand net migration and which states are increasing the most and losing the most per 1,000 people?  

Yes.

 

As I said, people are moving to cities. Those cities are turning blue. Arizona and Georgia are increasingly blue and will be out of reach for Republicans by 2028. Further down the line, Texas and North Carolina will follow suit, although that's more than a decade away.

 

More states, however, are turning Red. Iowa and Ohio are no longer in play for Democrats, this will be followed by Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and even further down the line states like Maine.

 

In the short term, it makes it extremely difficult for Democrats to win in the electoral college until Texas flips in the 2030s. The Senate will be next to impossible, because like I stated, 70% of Americans will be represented by 30 Senators in 2040.

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15 hours ago, knapplc said:

 

In contemporary politics, I'd agree.

 

Do you think anything else has happened in the last, say, six years that may make contemporary political analysis invalid?

 

Anything?

Some obnoxious dude who bankrupted real estate businesses won on building a wall between Mexico and the US, while running against the women who was supposed to be the first female president.

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