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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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On 6/23/2022 at 6:47 AM, teachercd said:

Joe vs Trump:  Joe wins

Joee vs Desantis:  Desantis wins with ease, right?

Another D vs Trump:  I think that D wins close?

Another D vs Desantis: Desantis wins close?

 

 

 

This is probably incorrect:

 

Joe vs Trump - Trump favored (55% chance or so)

Joe vs DeSantis - 50/50 race

 

Any other Democrat would perform worse than Joe Biden against all other candidates. 

 

Incumbency advantages play a role and people over estimate their personal feelings towards politicians and assume they're shared by everybody. Which is why you and others think Joe would perform worse than another D candidate. Decades of political science research tells us that isn't true.

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34 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

This is probably incorrect:

 

Joe vs Trump - Trump favored (55% chance or so)

Joe vs DeSantis - 50/50 race

 

Any other Democrat would perform worse than Joe Biden against all other candidates. 

 

Incumbency advantages play a role and people over estimate their personal feelings towards politicians and assume they're shared by everybody. Which is why you and others think Joe would perform worse than another D candidate. Decades of political science research tells us that isn't true.

Well it would not surprise me that I would be wrong. It happens a lot.

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43 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

This is probably incorrect:

 

Joe vs Trump - Trump favored (55% chance or so)

Joe vs DeSantis - 50/50 race

 

Any other Democrat would perform worse than Joe Biden against all other candidates. 

 

Incumbency advantages play a role and people over estimate their personal feelings towards politicians and assume they're shared by everybody. Which is why you and others think Joe would perform worse than another D candidate. Decades of political science research tells us that isn't true.

You honestly think Trump would be favored against anyone with a pulse after 1/6 and all of his other baggage?  People came out in droves to vote against that bastard in 2020 and that was before he conspired to steal the election.  

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12 minutes ago, Decoy73 said:

You honestly think Trump would be favored against anyone with a pulse after 1/6 and all of his other baggage?  People came out in droves to vote against that bastard in 2020 and that was before he conspired to steal the election.  

I've explained this a few times in other posts, but basically getting more votes does not win you the Presidency. Yes, Trump is likely to perform the same or slightly worse relative to 2020. But frankly, he doesn't have to do any better. In fact, he can perform worse nationally by 1% or more and still win.

 

This is because the PVI (Partisan Voting Index) is trending towards Republicans rapidly, because the electoral college rewards geography over raw votes.

 

In 2016, to win Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 2.2%. They won by 2.1% and lost.

 

By 2020, the PVI increased such that a Democrat had to win the popular vote by 4.3% (an increase of 2.1% over 2016). They won by 4.4% and won.

 

By 2024, it's likely this trend continues. The Democratic candidate probably needs to win the popular vote by 5-5.5%, a nearly impossible margin, in order to win. This trend is worse in the Senate - which Democrats are unlikely to win back for two decades - and is something that will get worse in the electoral college until Texas turns blue in the 2032 or 2036 election cycle.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I've explained this a few times in other posts, but basically getting more votes does not win you the Presidency. Yes, Trump is likely to perform the same or slightly worse relative to 2020. But frankly, he doesn't have to do any better. In fact, he can perform worse nationally by 1% or more and still win.

 

This is because the PVI (Partisan Voting Index) is trending towards Republicans rapidly, because the electoral college rewards geography over raw votes.

 

In 2016, to win Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 2.2%. They won by 2.1% and lost.

 

By 2020, the PVI increased such that a Democrat had to win the popular vote by 4.3% (an increase of 2.1% over 2016). They won by 4.4% and won.

 

By 2024, it's likely this trend continues. The Democratic candidate probably needs to win the popular vote by 5-5.5%, a nearly impossible margin, in order to win. This trend is worse in the Senate - which Democrats are unlikely to win back for two decades - and is something that will get worse in the electoral college until Texas turns blue in the 2032 or 2036 election cycle.

Appreciate the explanation.  It speaks volumes about the voting public.  I wonder what the partisan tendencies of the youth (Gen Z and Gen Alpha) of the country are trending towards.  Or, maybe that generally stays consistently.  I would think that with all of them either still in or recently coming out of school and considering the first president they would really know much about being Trump (and all his shenanigans) plus in the wake of school and other mass shootings, these youth would trend toward Democrat.  

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7 hours ago, Decoy73 said:

Appreciate the explanation.  It speaks volumes about the voting public.  I wonder what the partisan tendencies of the youth (Gen Z and Gen Alpha) of the country are trending towards.  Or, maybe that generally stays consistently.  I would think that with all of them either still in or recently coming out of school and considering the first president they would really know much about being Trump (and all his shenanigans) plus in the wake of school and other mass shootings, these youth would trend toward Democrat.  

The youth most certainly are liberal, but they always have been. They're also the least likely to vote.

 

Furthermore, after graduating college they're moving to cities, increasing the urban rural divide.  By 2040, 70% of Senators will be elected by 30% of the population.  I'm not sure what this means, but it's not good for America. 

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18 hours ago, Decoy73 said:

Appreciate the explanation.  It speaks volumes about the voting public.  I wonder what the partisan tendencies of the youth (Gen Z and Gen Alpha) of the country are trending towards.  Or, maybe that generally stays consistently.  I would think that with all of them either still in or recently coming out of school and considering the first president they would really know much about being Trump (and all his shenanigans) plus in the wake of school and other mass shootings, these youth would trend toward Democrat.  

 

11 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The youth most certainly are liberal, but they always have been. They're also the least likely to vote.

 

Furthermore, after graduating college they're moving to cities, increasing the urban rural divide.  By 2040, 70% of Senators will be elected by 30% of the population.  I'm not sure what this means, but it's not good for America. 

 

 

Yes, younger voters typically skew liberal, but young voters today are the most liberal that age group has ever been.

 

Unfortunately things will be so screwed up pretty soon, e.g. the existence of free and fair elections in the U.S., that it won’t matter.

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On 6/24/2022 at 1:25 PM, Decoy73 said:

You honestly think Trump would be favored against anyone with a pulse after 1/6 and all of his other baggage?  People came out in droves to vote against that bastard in 2020 and that was before he conspired to steal the election.  

Didn't he receive the second most votes in history?  While people did come out in droves to vote against him, they also came out in droves to vote for him.  Dr. Strangelove is correct.  The odds of another D beating Biden in a primary just aren't supported in history.  Even Jimmy Carter won his primary for the 1980 election.  Thus far into his presidency, Biden's presidency is a mirror image of Carter's. 

 

 

 

   

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43 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

Didn't he receive the second most votes in history?  While people did come out in droves to vote against him, they also came out in droves to vote for him.  Dr. Strangelove is correct.  The odds of another D beating Biden in a primary just aren't supported in history.  Even Jimmy Carter won his primary for the 1980 election.  Thus far into his presidency, Biden's presidency is a mirror image of Carter's. 

 

 

 

   

Big difference running against Reagan for re-election vs Trump with all his current baggage.  But if Trump somehow escapes prosecution or conviction, then yes, he will be empowered and could win again if the economy and inflation continue to tank. In that scenario, he (Trump) likely wouldn’t loose too many voters and could even gain some.  But, who knows now, lots will happen between now and then.  

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If Joe doesn't will she?

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/hillary-clinton-2024/index.html

 

Quote

 

In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court's monumental decision to overturn Roe v Wade, conservative writer John Ellis took to the internet to make a provocative case: It was time for Hillary Clinton to make a(nother) political comeback.

"Now is her moment," he wrote. "The Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade creates the opening for Hillary Clinton to get out of stealth mode and start down the path toward declaring her candidacy for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination."
Ellis' argument is centered on the ideas that 1) President Joe Biden, who will be 82 shortly after the 2024 election, is simply too old to run again (Ellis is far from the only person making that case) and 2) The Democratic bench is not terribly strong
He's not the only person eyeing a Clinton re-emergence.

 

 
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Just now, BigRedBuster said:

Oh GOD.....Please NO!!!!

Agreed.  Hopefully if Joe doesn't the Dems can come up with a good younger candidate not named Harris.   Hillary will just get the GOP bases motivated when they should be deflated by all of the J6C action.  By then, hopefully Trump will be in jail along wt his inner circle and the congressmen/women who aided them. 

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31 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I’ll say it again. Liz Cheney got president. 
 

She’s the Republican that has the guts to be the leader in making sure this information comes out. There are a few others like kinsinger.  But she was willing to step up and take the most heat. 

I'd be okay with it.

 

What floors me is that her voting record for the 4 years of Trump was super conservative...like 90% on policy. Now she takes a stand against an a$$hole ex-prez (as she should) and most folks around here not only wouldn't vote for her, they want to run her out of Washington.

 

Makes no sense.

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