I have never felt worse about Nebraska football

[FrantzHardySwag]

4 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

 

30s also seems high for me, but it's more logical than the eye test or ignoring who you're playing. The crux of it is this - Buffalo has the top scoring offense in the country. Would they if they played Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State, etc? Of course not. Would they average more than we have? Probably, which is why they're higher in SP+. But not controlling for competition is why college yardage/points stats are garbage. Those work reasonably well within a conference, or in the NFL when the teams are a lot closer together, not overall in college where the difference between Alabama and UMass is astronomical.

 

I'm sure it's way more complicated than this, but look at it as comparing how well our offense did against each defense, relative to their other opponents. Our offense had far and away the best performance anyone has had against Iowa this year from a yards per play perspective, and right there with the top group in points. By yards and yards per play, easily the best performance against NW too. We've had a couple real bad offensive games against the easy teams (Illinois and Minny), but we've been pretty good against very good defenses over the year. Just not good enough at getting our of our own way.

I get this. Even within the B1G were 12th in scoring and 10th in yards. When you’re built to win games via track meets, like frost has his entire career, being in the bottom 1/3 of the B1G offensively is gonna mean a lot of losses. 

[Husker in WI]

13 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

I get this. Even within the B1G were 12th in scoring and 10th in yards. When you’re built to win games via track meets, like frost has his entire career, being in the bottom 1/3 of the B1G offensively is gonna mean a lot of losses. 

 

Oh right, we definitely have to get better - specifically at turning yards into points. But SP+ says we're not a bottom third offense in the Big Ten, and so as bad as we've looked there are underlying reasons for optimism. Those need to turn into points and wins, so I'm not going to fault anyone for not buying it. We all have our own measures and what we see. I will fault people for insisting there are zero reasons for anyone else to to see positives. You don't have to like/agree with SP+ (or any specific statistic), but let's not claim there are literally no reasons for anyone to look at our offense in a positive light. And I don't think you were specifically, just saying.

 

I will wholeheartedly agree that by the eye test and raw numbers, the offense has been worse this year. But in rewatching and looking at advanced stats, I can definitely see reasons for optimism. You can hand wave them away, just like I'm hand waving away the totals. But both sides have a case, and we're all pulling for it to get better.

[J-MAGIC]

1 hour ago, Huskers93-97 said:

I don’t know what SP+ is but obviously it is a s#!t rating system. This is the most pathetic offense at Nebraska in over 60 years. 

 

"No, it's not my personal biases that are wrong, it's the objective statistical evaluation system honed over a decade and a half."

 

Our points and yards per game rankings are bad because in our seven games we've played the Nos. 2 (Northwestern), 3 (Iowa), 10 (OSU), and 25 (Penn State) defenses in the country. SP+ is supposed to provide actual context for opponent to bad stats like points and yards per game. Points and yards per game in themselves are indicative of almost nothing. 

 

I don't disagree with the larger point here: The offense needs to be a lot better for Frost to achieve success. But even if you quibble with the numbers, it's pretty clear that it is at least not regressing. 

 

And absolutely lol at your last sentence. Were you not a Nebraska fan in 09??

[Undone]

1 hour ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

I get this. Even within the B1G were 12th in scoring and 10th in yards. When you’re built to win games via track meets, like frost has his entire career, being in the bottom 1/3 of the B1G offensively is gonna mean a lot of losses. 

 

Not necessarily disagreeing with your ultimate thesis there, but on the other hand we've lost three of our five losses by one score. And when you go back to the turnovers, penalties, and relatively bad special teams play in those games I'm not sure that the biggest problem is that Frost isn't getting the most bank for his buck out of his offensive scheme.

[Undone]

28 minutes ago, J-MAGIC said:

 

"No, it's not my personal biases that are wrong, it's the objective statistical evaluation system honed over a decade and a half."

 

Our points and yards per game rankings are bad because in our seven games we've played the Nos. 2 (Northwestern), 3 (Iowa), 10 (OSU), and 25 (Penn State) defenses in the country. SP+ is supposed to provide actual context for opponent to bad stats like points and yards per game. Points and yards per game in themselves are indicative of almost nothing. 

 

I don't disagree with the larger point here: The offense needs to be a lot better for Frost to achieve success. But even if you quibble with the numbers, it's pretty clear that it is at least not regressing. 

 

And absolutely lol at your last sentence. Were you not a Nebraska fan in 09??

 

Damn...really good post.

[krc1995]

45 minutes ago, J-MAGIC said:

 

"No, it's not my personal biases that are wrong, it's the objective statistical evaluation system honed over a decade and a half."

 

Our points and yards per game rankings are bad because in our seven games we've played the Nos. 2 (Northwestern), 3 (Iowa), 10 (OSU), and 25 (Penn State) defenses in the country. SP+ is supposed to provide actual context for opponent to bad stats like points and yards per game. Points and yards per game in themselves are indicative of almost nothing. 

 

I don't disagree with the larger point here: The offense needs to be a lot better for Frost to achieve success. But even if you quibble with the numbers, it's pretty clear that it is at least not regressing. 

 

And absolutely lol at your last sentence. Were you not a Nebraska fan in 09??

Any statistical comparisons this year on the national level is invalid. BIG teams have not played enough  games. And how do you compare team rankings when they don’t play out of conference? 
 

and looking only at averages is misleading. I think looking at consistency and variability across categories would give a better picture of what we are (or aren’t). Everything seems to be a bit random. 
 

one thing I know, whether it be by 35 points or by 7, we’re losing more than we’re winning.  

[FrantzHardySwag]

1 hour ago, J-MAGIC said:

Points and yards per game in themselves are indicative of almost nothing. 

When you play in the B1G. And all your games thus far have been in the B1G. Points and yards tell you how good your offense is, in the B1G. Last time I checked we’re gonna be in the B1G for the foreseeable future. We need more points and yards in the B1G to win football games. Every year under Frost we’ve scored less points and had less yards against B1G teams than the previous year. You’re over complicating a simple problem. 

[KC Sker]

15 minutes ago, krc1995 said:

one thing I know, whether it be by 35 points or by 7, we’re losing more than we’re winning.  

 

[Huskers93-97]

1 hour ago, J-MAGIC said:

 

"No, it's not my personal biases that are wrong, it's the objective statistical evaluation system honed over a decade and a half."

 

Our points and yards per game rankings are bad because in our seven games we've played the Nos. 2 (Northwestern), 3 (Iowa), 10 (OSU), and 25 (Penn State) defenses in the country. SP+ is supposed to provide actual context for opponent to bad stats like points and yards per game. Points and yards per game in themselves are indicative of almost nothing. 

 

I don't disagree with the larger point here: The offense needs to be a lot better for Frost to achieve success. But even if you quibble with the numbers, it's pretty clear that it is at least not regressing. 

 

And absolutely lol at your last sentence. Were you not a Nebraska fan in 09??

There is 1 offensive stat that matters. Points scored. Yards don’t win games. Statistics don’t win games. Points do. We suck and there are 104 teams better at scoring than we are 

 

[gobiggergoredder]

On 12/12/2020 at 5:46 PM, Ron said:

This program is in such a bad

place it’s hard to know where to begin.  Frost should be ashamed to accept his $5M comp for the terrible state of a program 3 years into his tenure.  No excuses.  If this happened in corporate America he would have been canned long ago. 

If it was politics he’d be president elect.

[All Hail Herbie]

4 hours ago, krc1995 said:

Any statistical comparisons this year on the national level is invalid. BIG teams have not played enough  games. And how do you compare team rankings when they don’t play out of conference? 
 

and looking only at averages is misleading. I think looking at consistency and variability across categories would give a better picture of what we are (or aren’t). Everything seems to be a bit random. 
 

one thing I know, whether it be by 35 points or by 7, we’re losing more than we’re winning.  

 

This is a good point.  If the argument is that SP+ provides context, it would seem to be very flawed in a year when there is not any cross-conference play.  No matter, this whole discussion of statistics is merely a diversion from reality.

 

Seeking a statistical metric of progress as a substitute for disciplined play and ultimately, wins, perhaps illustrates how far we have fallen.  When we were winning league titles in the 80's and 90's, I honestly can say that I was oblivious to what our SP+ or other statistical metrics were.  WE WERE WINNING!

[Huskers93-97]

No mention here of Moos being impressed by our SP+ rating. He does say our offense needs to score more points. 
 

https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/Article/Nebraska-Huskers-athletic-director-Bill-Moos-Scott-Frost-157032863/?fbclid=IwAR1kbxFPcp65TCIo84Ejrm_1Fn5izEn3AIctbXg2YFGmZnt1tWQ4BHE23YQ

[TheSker]

24 minutes ago, Huskers93-97 said:

No mention here of Moos being impressed by our SP+ rating. He does say our offense needs to score more points. 
 

https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/Article/Nebraska-Huskers-athletic-director-Bill-Moos-Scott-Frost-157032863/?fbclid=IwAR1kbxFPcp65TCIo84Ejrm_1Fn5izEn3AIctbXg2YFGmZnt1tWQ4BHE23YQ

I would bet Moos gives Frost some serious ultimatums 

[biggiecheese]

12 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

 

Fair enough to have your subjective perspective.  That is what is nice about these forums we are all allowed to look at the same product displayed on the field and come to completely different conclusions.  I tend to be an optimist but also have a day job where I am evaluating leaders in my organization.  Somewhere in Season 2 is when I began to have concerns about the abilities with Frost and his staff and those trends have continued into year 3.  I am not seeing good leadership, player development or decision making by this staff on a regular basis.  These are key traits a good coaching staff should possess but they continue to be lacking.  I am hopeful this staff and team will eventually show reasons for optimism, but I have a feeling we will have to wait til 2021 to see those.  

2021 will be when the curtain comes down and we see what is really going on

[Huskers93-97]

I finally got around to watching the Charlie McBride video on carriker chronicles on utube. He is not outwardly critical of the staff but he does not sound impressed with if defense. 
 

he did say well if you can recruit but can’t coach kids to do what you need them to do then maybe hard decisions need to be made or something along those lines