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Covid-19 Vaccinations.


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21 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

 

I'll probably keep wearing mine at least until my kids get vaccinated. 

 

I kind of wish they would stay en vogue for awhile afterwards, though. 

I think if they say we don't have to wear one next year, I will stop wearing it.  

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Just got the J&J today, glad they brought it back one shot is nice and convenient. Where I went you even stayed in your car. Couldn't have been easier.   Kinda made the laugh how the nur

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2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

How do you still not understand this???  From the article.......

 

Yeah, absolutely. So I actually think that 7% number, which is technically accurate, is a little misleading because it's 7% of those people who had a breakthrough infection who ended up being hospitalized. The real denominator that I think is important to people is how many percent of those who actually were fully vaccinated ended up hospitalized? That's what you want to know, what are my chances of being fully of being hospitalized even after I've been fully vaccinated? And that's the 0.0005% that I cited earlier. 

I do understand. Now tell me who is making the claim in that article. Like I said in my post, I'd love for those numbers to be correct, but my not seeing it anywhere other than speculative reporting.

 

2 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

While you’re sifting through the data on the interwebs, take a hot minute to search ‘confirmed vs actual covid cases’, and see how arbitrary it is. 
 

I have a feeling you know this already, but unfortunately admitting it wouldn’t allow you to remain on the precarious perch you’ve somehow found yourself on. 

Show me the data. You've yet to do so after multiple posts.

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1 hour ago, RedDenver said:

I do understand. Now tell me who is making the claim in that article. Like I said in my post, I'd love for those numbers to be correct, but my not seeing it anywhere other than speculative reporting.

I’ll try one more time.  If you don’t understand how vaccines are enormously successful and over 99.99% successful in preventing hospitalization and death by that point then there is no help for you.  
 

The CDC has data on the number of Covid-19 breakthrough infections on fully vaccinated people—5,800

 

The CDC says the number of people fully vaccinated people who had breakthrough infections and ended up hospitalized is—396. 
 

The CDC says the number of people fully vaccinated who have then since died of COVID-19 is—74

 

396 + 74 = 470

 

The CDC says the number of fully vaccinated COVID Americans is—77 million. 
 

5800 breakthrough cases divided by 77 million is .000075% chance of a breakthrough case 
 

470 dead or hospitalized individuals divided by 77 million vaccinated individuals is .0000061% chance of hospitalization or death after full vaccination. 
 

Here is another source for you to probably disagree with somehow. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/04/14/health/breakthrough-infections-covid-vaccines-cdc/index.html

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Finally got my 1st dose (Moderna) about 2 hours ago.  I literally did not feel a thing. She wiped a spot on my shoulder and said "all done". I was still waiting for at least a tiny poke (.... that's what she said :lol:)

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3 hours ago, RedDenver said:
5 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

While you’re sifting through the data on the interwebs, take a hot minute to search ‘confirmed vs actual covid cases’, and see how arbitrary it is. 
 

I have a feeling you know this already, but unfortunately admitting it wouldn’t allow you to remain on the precarious perch you’ve somehow found yourself on. 

Expand  

Show me the data. You've yet to do so after multiple posts.

I’ll help you out Goalposts.  Though it’s easy to find the info if you truly wanted to.  
 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210209/study-says-covid-cases-have-been-severely-undercounted

 

In the U.S., the number of COVID-19 cases is likely 3 times that of reported cases. According to the study, more than 71 million Americans have contracted the virus during the pandemic, and 7 million were infected or potentially contagious last week.
 

 

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There are quite a few recent posts in this thread that are teetering on the edge of acceptability. Time to tone it back.

 

Attack the post, not the poster.

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9 hours ago, JJ Husker said:

Finally got my 1st dose (Moderna) about 2 hours ago.  I literally did not feel a thing. She wiped a spot on my shoulder and said "all done". I was still waiting for at least a tiny poke (.... that's what she said :lol:)

Probably didn't even give it to you!  Haha

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14 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

I’ll try one more time.  If you don’t understand how vaccines are enormously successful and over 99.99% successful in preventing hospitalization and death by that point then there is no help for you.  
 

The CDC has data on the number of Covid-19 breakthrough infections on fully vaccinated people—5,800

 

The CDC says the number of people fully vaccinated people who had breakthrough infections and ended up hospitalized is—396. 
 

The CDC says the number of people fully vaccinated who have then since died of COVID-19 is—74

 

396 + 74 = 470

 

The CDC says the number of fully vaccinated COVID Americans is—77 million. 
 

5800 breakthrough cases divided by 77 million is .000075% chance of a breakthrough case 
 

470 dead or hospitalized individuals divided by 77 million vaccinated individuals is .0000061% chance of hospitalization or death after full vaccination. 
 

Here is another source for you to probably disagree with somehow. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/04/14/health/breakthrough-infections-covid-vaccines-cdc/index.html

I wish it was that effective, but you can't compare the data that way. You're basically comparing the vaccine rate to covid spread rate - by the vaccine being distributed faster will tilt the numbers towards the vaccine looking more effective and vice versa. There's tons of variables you're not accounting for. It's why studies have specific protocols and control groups.

How CDC Measures COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness

 

I started reading that CDC page and found some studies that do support your general conclusion that the effectiveness against hospitalization is extremely high, but no where near your calculated number. I could only find 14-day hospitalizations and not total hospitalizations though. Found the studies at this link from CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html#Research1

 

First study summary (emphasis mine):

Quote

 

Summary
What is already known about this topic?

Messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be effective in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in randomized placebo-controlled Phase III trials.

What is added by this report?

Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status; vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) was 80%.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in real-world conditions. COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for all eligible persons.

 

Note that the bold appears to be for all symptoms and not just hospitalizations and deaths like we're discussing.

 

Reference 3 in that study is "observational studies of the mRNA vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19" titled "FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines are effective per real-world evidence synthesized across a multi-state health system". Here's the abstract from that study (emphasis mine):

Quote

Large Phase 3 clinical trials of the two FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines, mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech), have demonstrated efficacies of 94.1% (n = 30,420, 95% CI: 89.3-96.8) and 95% (n = 43,448, 95% CI: 90.3-97.6) in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, respectively. Given the ongoing vaccine rollout to healthcare personnel and residents of long-term care facilities, here we provide a preliminary assessment of real-world vaccination efficacy in 62,138 individuals from the Mayo Clinic and associated health system (Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin) between December 1st 2020 and February 8th 2021. Our retrospective analysis contrasts 31,069 individuals receiving at least one dose of either vaccine with 31,069 unvaccinated individuals who are propensity-matched based on demographics, location (zip code), and number of prior SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests. 8,041 individuals received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine and were at risk for infection at least 36 days after their first dose. Administration of two COVID-19 vaccine doses was 88.7% effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection (95% CI: 68.4-97.1%) with onset at least 36 days after the first dose. Furthermore, vaccinated patients who were subsequently diagnosed with COVID-19 had significantly lower 14-day hospital admission rates than propensity-matched unvaccinated COVID-19 patients (3.7% vs. 9.2%; Relative Risk: 0.4; p-value: 0.007). Building upon the previous randomized trials of these vaccines, this study demonstrates their real-world effectiveness in reducing the rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity among individuals at highest risk for infection.

 

So the data shows that the 14-day hospitalization rate for that study was (1-0.887)*.037=0.0042=0.4%, which is orders of magnitude bigger than the number you're calculating (.0000061% is 65,000 times smaller than 0.4%). However, that is extremely low, which is very good news. I assume total hospitalizations will be higher since there's going to be some number of hospitalizations less than 14 days.

 

There's another study about real-world effectiveness in two nursing homes experiencing an outbreak (vaccine effectiveness 63%); it's interesting but not germane to our discussion:

Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Among Residents of Two Skilled Nursing Facilities Experiencing COVID-19 Outbreaks — Connecticut, December 2020–February 2021

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37 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I wish it was that effective, but you can't compare the data that way. You're basically comparing the vaccine rate to covid spread rate - by the vaccine being distributed faster will tilt the numbers towards the vaccine looking more effective and vice versa. There's tons of variables you're not accounting for. It's why studies have specific protocols and control groups.

How CDC Measures COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness

 

I started reading that CDC page and found some studies that do support your general conclusion that the effectiveness against hospitalization is extremely high, but no where near your calculated number. I could only find 14-day hospitalizations and not total hospitalizations though. Found the studies at this link from CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html#Research1

 

First study summary (emphasis mine):

Note that the bold appears to be for all symptoms and not just hospitalizations and deaths like we're discussing.

 

Reference 3 in that study is "observational studies of the mRNA vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19" titled "FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines are effective per real-world evidence synthesized across a multi-state health system". Here's the abstract from that study (emphasis mine):

 

So the data shows that the 14-day hospitalization rate for that study was (1-0.887)*.037=0.0042=0.4%, which is orders of magnitude bigger than the number you're calculating (.0000061% is 65,000 times smaller than 0.4%). However, that is extremely low, which is very good news. I assume total hospitalizations will be higher since there's going to be some number of hospitalizations less than 14 days.

 

There's another study about real-world effectiveness in two nursing homes experiencing an outbreak (vaccine effectiveness 63%); it's interesting but not germane to our discussion:

Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Among Residents of Two Skilled Nursing Facilities Experiencing COVID-19 Outbreaks — Connecticut, December 2020–February 2021

You are not looking at the correct data points.  CDC, WHO, Fauci, immunologists, virologists all disagree with you.  

 

from your link.   Bold mine. 
 

In a phase 3 trial studying BNT162b2 (9), the COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by Pfizer/BioNTech, 50 out of 21,314 (0.23%) vaccinated patients experienced a symptomatic COVID-19 infection, with an incidence rate of 12.5 cases per 1000 person-years. In contrast, 275 of 21,258 (1.29%) patients receiving a placebo injection developed COVID-19, with an incidence rate of 69.1 cases per 1000 person-years. Thirty patients experienced severe disease, all of whom had received placebo. Seven or more days after the second dose, the difference between groups was even more pronounced, with incidence rates of 3.61 and 72.9 cases per 1000 person-years in the vaccinated and placebo groups, respectively (efficacy = 95.0%; 95% CI: 90.3-97.6%).
 

Similarly, in the trial studying mRNA-1273 (10), the vaccine candidate developed by Moderna, 19 of 14,550 (0.13%) vaccinated patients experienced a symptomatic infection compared to 269 of 14,598 (1.84%) patients receiving placebo. Among these symptomatic infections, there were 9 cases of severe COVID-19 in the placebo group compared to only one in the vaccinated cohort. This effect was stronger when considering infection rates 14 or more days after the second dose, with incidence rates of 3.3 and 56.5 cases per 1000 person-years in the vaccinated and placebo groups, respectively (efficacy = 94.1%; 95% CI: 89.3-96.8%).

 

on the open label study you reference...Less than 1% even tested positive for Covid-19.  


Over the duration of our study (see Methods), 263 of 31,069 (0.85%) vaccinated individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to 661 of 31,069 (2.13%) matched unvaccinated individuals 


Importantly, we found that two of the six infections in the vaccinated cohort on or after day 36 occurred in individuals who had received only one vaccine dose, even though all vaccinated individuals should have received two doses by this time point per the manufacturer guidelines


There are several important limitations to consider in this study. First, while the cohort size was even larger than the cohorts studied in phase 3 trials, the mean follow-up time per patient is substantially lower (mean = 27.1 days versus approximately 80 to 90 days). Consistent with this, approximately 45.1% of our vaccinated cohort had received only one dose of vaccination at the time of this study 

 

 

Now we need to find out from the open label trial you referenced is the number of fully vaccinated individuals who were hospitalized.  

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And now we're going to start hitting plateaus of vaccinated folks thanks to the anti-vaxxers out there.

 

The one thing that's going to convince these folks to get vaccinated? Catching Covid. Nobody wants their a$$ kicked like that. It'll learn you quick.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, knapplc said:

And now we're going to start hitting plateaus of vaccinated folks thanks to the anti-vaxxers out there.

 

The one thing that's going to convince these folks to get vaccinated? Catching Covid. Nobody wants their a$$ kicked like that. It'll learn you quick.

 

 

 

I don't disagree with the bold...but I think a LOT of people did catch COVID, and they either didn't know they had it, or they experienced none of the symptoms that have hit you hard. Combine that experience with being an anti-masker, and still not getting their a$$ kicked, it doesn't surprise me that they won't get a shot. 

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7 hours ago, DevoHusker said:

 

I don't disagree with the bold...but I think a LOT of people did catch COVID, and they either didn't know they had it, or they experienced none of the symptoms that have hit you hard. Combine that experience with being an anti-masker, and still not getting their a$$ kicked, it doesn't surprise me that they won't get a shot. 

There is no way I did not have it.  I was around 3 people that tested positive for it and I am at least 25% of the students had/have it.  I am just lucky that i did not feel it.

 

I got the shot so I am all good!

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1 hour ago, teachercd said:

There is no way I did not have it.  I was around 3 people that tested positive for it and I am at least 25% of the students had/have it.  I am just lucky that i did not feel it.

 

I got the shot so I am all good!

Same situation here.

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