Stats that will make you scratch your head...

[Husker in WI]

47 minutes ago, HuskerNation1 said:

 

In my opinion way too much stock is being placed in the "advanced stats."   It's certainly another data point, but it should be not viewed as the primary means of gauging success and the trends of a program.  At the end of the day Wins and Losses are what matter.  The Northwestern game this year was a prime example where we outgained NW by over 125 yards and moved the ball well  (442 yards on offense) yet lost the game and only scored 13 points.  

 

Right, but do you feel better about our chances to score more points in the future with that, or if we had 250 yards of offense? Primary means of gauging success, absolutely not. Primary (or at least significant) piece in looking for the future of a program, I'd say so. At least taken over the course of a few years, and obviously with other things factored in like the state of the program, transfers, etc. And I'm not trying to say the stats are the only thing we should believe - but I happen to see a lot of positive trends mixed up with the negatives, and advanced stats make me feel a bit better that the positives I see aren't completely from the kool-aid. 

[Wistrom Disciple]

1 hour ago, HuskerNation1 said:

Well to be fair we also did not play Wisconsin and Cincinatti this year which could have worsened the stats.  

Wisconsin averaged 22.3 ppg in their six games, including only 10 points each game over their last four. They would've probably helped our stats.

- Cincy would have been more of a challenge. 

[HuskerNation1]

1 hour ago, Wistrom Disciple said:

Wisconsin averaged 22.3 ppg in their six games, including only 10 points each game over their last four. They would've probably helped our stats.

- Cincy would have been more of a challenge. 

 

Wisconsin always seems to have our numbers, and we were supposed to play them in week 2.  The game before they were supposed to play us they beat Illinois 45-7 and the game after they beat Michigan 49-11.  Their year was kind of odd for them as they are usualy a consistent team week to week, but with how we played early I am not confident we would have won or given up fewer points than our season average.  

[Toe]

3 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

Well to be fair we also did not play Wisconsin and Cincinatti this year which could have worsened the stats.  

 

Still blows my mind how many people this past offseason were acting like we were gonna blow right through Cincinnati like they were nothing. I kept saying "Uhh, you realize that they're a top 25 team, right?" And now they're an undefeated top ten team...

[Born N Bled Red]

1 hour ago, Toe said:

 

Still blows my mind how many people this past offseason were acting like we were gonna blow right through Cincinnati like they were nothing. I kept saying "Uhh, you realize that they're a top 25 team, right?" And now they're an undefeated top ten team...

Well if they played us they would be a 10-1 top 15 team amirite??

[Wistrom Disciple]

3 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

Wisconsin always seems to have our numbers, and we were supposed to play them in week 2.  The game before they were supposed to play us they beat Illinois 45-7 and the game after they beat Michigan 49-11.  Their year was kind of odd for them as they are usualy a consistent team week to week, but with how we played early I am not confident we would have won or given up fewer points than our season average.  

Yes, past Wisconsin teams have played well against us but to state they would do so again would be an assumption at best... kind of like assuming we would beat Illinois this year, or assuming we would have lost to Penn State (preseason top 15 team). Too many inconsistencies this year to draw conclusions. Instead, we can only use the stats and results we have on the subject.

 

In this case, the stats and results suggest that we aren't many steps for regaining the top position in our division. Some better discipline with penalties, catching a few dropped passes, avoiding errant snaps and it is likely that our record improves. We finally look the part again in terms of size and talent, it's now just a matter of developing consistency and sharpening skills as we have the talent to win the division.

[HuskerNation1]

11 hours ago, Wistrom Disciple said:

Yes, past Wisconsin teams have played well against us but to state they would do so again would be an assumption at best... kind of like assuming we would beat Illinois this year, or assuming we would have lost to Penn State (preseason top 15 team). Too many inconsistencies this year to draw conclusions. Instead, we can only use the stats and results we have on the subject.

 

In this case, the stats and results suggest that we aren't many steps for regaining the top position in our division. Some better discipline with penalties, catching a few dropped passes, avoiding errant snaps and it is likely that our record improves. We finally look the part again in terms of size and talent, it's now just a matter of developing consistency and sharpening skills as we have the talent to win the division.

 

Actually the stats I shared show the program is performing near the bottom of where it has been the past decade.  Regarding our division, I am not sure the West has had a weaker year than this year with fewer teams than usual being ranked.  This was a year Nebraska should have and could have easily taken the division, yet we finished near the bottom again. 

 

Regarding the areas you suggest need to be improved, those are not new issues though and I have little confidence Frost and his staff will get the team to suddenly figure those out.  They seem to be systemic at this point, so unless Frost changes his ways or modifies his staff, I believe we will see more of the same in 2021.  

[Wistrom Disciple]

1 hour ago, HuskerNation1 said:

Actually the stats I shared show the program is performing near the bottom of where it has been the past decade.  Regarding our division, I am not sure the West has had a weaker year than this year with fewer teams than usual being ranked.  This was a year Nebraska should have and could have easily taken the division, yet we finished near the bottom again. 

 

Regarding the areas you suggest need to be improved, those are not new issues though and I have little confidence Frost and his staff will get the team to suddenly figure those out.  They seem to be systemic at this point, so unless Frost changes his ways or modifies his staff, I believe we will see more of the same in 2021.  

Yes, offensively we performed poorly this season... again. And yes, we finished in the middle of the division which is disappointing. However, I believe that all of the issues are mental mistakes which can be corrected. Playing as many young guys as we did along the line, some of those issues should be reduced as they mature and get more comfortable. The snapping appears to have been corrected with a technique adjustment so that should help us going forward. Young receivers running the wrong routes should also be corrected with time and practice.

 

I'm in the camp that we're not far from winning the division as it is now and should not make drastic changes. Though young, we are finally a team that looks the part in sheer size & skill and got rid of the quitters mentality we previously had at the end of the Riley era. The mental aspect is the biggest hurdle of course but I am optimistic that a return to normalcy in 2021 will go a long ways towards returning to the top of the division.

[Hilltop]

2 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

 

Actually the stats I shared show the program is performing near the bottom of where it has been the past decade.  Regarding our division, I am not sure the West has had a weaker year than this year with fewer teams than usual being ranked.  This was a year Nebraska should have and could have easily taken the division, yet we finished near the bottom again. 

 

Regarding the areas you suggest need to be improved, those are not new issues though and I have little confidence Frost and his staff will get the team to suddenly figure those out.  They seem to be systemic at this point, so unless Frost changes his ways or modifies his staff, I believe we will see more of the same in 2021.  

It's amazing what a little maturity does - "figuring out" those little corrections becomes a heck of a lot easier with Junior and Senior linemen.  The stats you shared show a part of what we are- very young.

[HuskerNation1]

1 hour ago, Wistrom Disciple said:

Yes, offensively we performed poorly this season... again. And yes, we finished in the middle of the division which is disappointing. However, I believe that all of the issues are mental mistakes which can be corrected. Playing as many young guys as we did along the line, some of those issues should be reduced as they mature and get more comfortable. The snapping appears to have been corrected with a technique adjustment so that should help us going forward. Young receivers running the wrong routes should also be corrected with time and practice.

 

I'm in the camp that we're not far from winning the division as it is now and should not make drastic changes. Though young, we are finally a team that looks the part in sheer size & skill and got rid of the quitters mentality we previously had at the end of the Riley era. The mental aspect is the biggest hurdle of course but I am optimistic that a return to normalcy in 2021 will go a long ways towards returning to the top of the division.

 

The mental lapses have been happening for many years even before Frost joined, and with upperclassmen in the mix too. Also, some of the mental difficulties have come at the hands of the coaching staff and playcalling and game management.  I get that Frost is a young head coach and can grow too, but he has not shown a willingness to stray from what worked for him in the past at Oregon and UCF, and from what I have seen in many years of watching BIG football, it's not just a few miscues that have made us ineffective and a bottom feeder in the West division but its also the offensive philosophy and too much emphasis on a horizontal game vs a vertical game that will continue to cause offensive pain.  Frost really needs to rethink how he wants to attack BIG competition which requires him to show self-awareness and a willingness to go back to the drawing board and think differently. 

 

I hope you are right with your optimism.  I simply not there based upon the stats/data as well as the way Frost has carried himself and his staff over the past 3 years. If Frost makes some changes to his assistants and admits he needs to think differently, I will have more hope for the future of the program.

[All Hail Herbie]

The attention given to "advanced" stats astounds me given the persistent problems within the program right now.  We had 4 turnovers, 9 penalties, and permitted Rutgers to convert a fake punt and kick return for a touchdown courtesy of our special teams.

 

This game should have been a rout as it was a complete mismatch.  Yet, our ineptitude made us sweat the result late in the game.  

 

Both the Purdue and Rutgers games best illustrated why we are a bottom tier team right now.  We won both (against lesser competition), but in neither instance was the game in hand due to our failures.  

 

The "problem" stats are the only ones that count right now so let's focus on fixing these.

 

 

[Big Red Viking]

21 hours ago, Born N Bled Red said:

Well if they played us they would be a 10-1 top 15 team amirite??

Right on

[huskerfan74]

On 12/21/2020 at 4:56 PM, Undone said:

 

Yep. And arguably it was special teams that really screwed us so bad last year more than any other single issue.

And you think that special teams were better this year? I hope you don’t think that because our special teams this year was the worst in the universe. A middle school football team can arguably play better at special teams. 

[BigRedBuster]

10 hours ago, huskerfan74 said:

And you think that special teams were better this year? I hope you don’t think that because our special teams this year was the worst in the universe. A middle school football team can arguably play better at special teams. 

They definitely were better because we actually could kick field goals and some kicks were in the end zone.  I also don’t remember giving up KO or punt return tds.  I could be forgetting that though.  
 

Still need to improve though.  

[Husker in WI]

13 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

They definitely were better because we actually could kick field goals and some kicks were in the end zone.  I also don’t remember giving up KO or punt return tds.  I could be forgetting that though.  
 

Still need to improve though.  

 

We did. We were better at field goals, that's about it. Iowa had a big punt return that was a factor in not being able to pull that game out as well, not a TD but wrecked our opportunity to flip field position. We struggled with field position in general all year, we gave up long returns and couldn't return kicks at all. There were many things that could have flipped our record, special teams is one of them. If we kicked touchbacks and averaged more than 18 yards per kick return, I think honestly we're 5-3 instead of 3-5.

 

Rutledge's teams have always been worse or barely better in his first year, then top-10 his second - hoping that holds true here. I do think Cerni will make a difference, 39 yards per punt is not great either. Especially with no hang time. So the short version is we could actually kick field goals, and that's huge. Nothing else was much better, and field position really cost us this year. Frost talks about being great on clean drives - it's a lot easier to not have a negative play if we're only going 40-50 yards instead of 90. We played a lot of games getting the ball inside our own 20 and giving the ball to the opponent near midfield.