Huskers and the attrition issues

[lo country]

So after the end of year 3, we are still here posting a losing reason.  No real definitive, singular reason.  Here is another read that does have some data behind NU's current issues.  And what has caused some issues in the past.  Attrition.  Guys leaving the program and never developing the deep roster we had "back in the day"....Not saying it's the silver bullet, but it does explain some problems.  Question is how do you fix it?

 

"But the Huskers’ attrition rate has remained pretty steady over two decades, and losing nearly four out of every 10 players coaches hand select either based on their talent or to address specific needs is definitely an uphill battle."

 

"So far, the Scott Frost era at Nebraska has presented something of a mixed bag on the attrition front. Frost’s first class, the 2018 group, has already lost 48% of the players signed that year. The 2019 group has remained relatively stable with an attrition rate of 11.1%, part of the reason why it could end up being such a pivotal class for this coaching staff. The 2020 class, which certainly dealt with one-of-a-kind circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic, already had an attrition rate of 21.7% in January 2021, which is high for a group that just signed a year ago. Maybe that’s an outlier year given the context, but history shows that attrition is something worth paying attention to in Lincoln."

 

https://hailvarsity.com/football/tracking-nebraska-footballs-2021-attrition-rate

[Mavric]

We've also changed coaches every four-ish years for most of the last 20 years.  I would guess that has as much to do with it as anything.  Plus COVID this year.

[lo country]

22 minutes ago, Mavric said:

We've also changed coaches every four-ish years for most of the last 20 years.  I would guess that has as much to do with it as anything.  Plus COVID this year.

Hoping our the classes stick.  No doubt keeping Frost will help.  Rotating coaches, kids and schemes isn't working.

[uberism]

Stability and recruiting kids with the right mental makeup will solve this. The wrong thing to do, as we found out, is to push hard for several kids in FL and similar type of places since a lot of those kids go with no real big burning desire to build and work and wait for there time at a place like Nebraska. Gotta get more of the better kids in places like Hawaii, New Jersey, and 500 Mile Radius. 

 

I'd go down to Oklahoma and Texas harder too. I know kids down there are going to hard to get that have the choice of going To Oklahoma, A&M  and Texas, but there is enough talent down there to pull away a good player or two every year. 

For far away states, Georgia is where we should go a bit harder in. Pull back from South Florida a bit and go a bit harder in Georgia. 

[Caliborn72]

Fwiw I think the staff had no choice but to try to use their rising star status in Florida recruiting. They were big shots all over the country, but especially in Florida, and had built relationships with the HS coaches down there.

 

It ended up not working out like we hoped, for various reasons, and now it’s probably for the best that we are turning attention elsewhere.

[I AM FOOT FOOT]

12 hours ago, lo country said:

Hoping our the classes stick.  No doubt keeping Frost will help.  Rotating coaches, kids and schemes isn't working.

Bad hires have taken a toll for sure, hopefully Nebraska gets it right next time. 

[Toe]

4 hours ago, uberism said:

a lot of those kids go with no real big burning desire to build and work and wait for there time at a place like Nebraska.

 

I think that guys not wanting to sit back and develop is a big part of the problem, but I think there's more to it than just where they're from.

 

The mass exodus of Riley's guys created a vacuum at the top. Especially at WR - our WR group was mostly freshmen and walk-ons this year. It's gotta be easier to accept a backup job when you're behind an upperclassman who is clearly a good player. That gives younger guys more time to grow and develop before they step onto the field, of course.

 

But when you're a guy like Fleming and you think you're a big shot future star, and there's no clear star ahead of you on the depth chart, what do you think? You think you should be the starter on day one, right? But was he actually ready to? A few guys might be ready enough when they step onto campus, but most aren't. Clearly, the coaches didn't think Fleming was ready to. And it's not like Frost is afraid to play a true freshman WR - Wandale worked out alright doing that. But riding the pine when some lower-rated guy is on the field is hard to swallow when you've got an ego.

 

So I think part of what we're seeing is essentially a negative feedback loop - guys not sticking around to become upperclassmen starters leading to more guys not sticking around to become upperclassmen starters. Having to play a bunch of guys who aren't as experienced as you need leads to more losses, and more losses leads to even more guys leaving.

 

I guess the only way to break the cycle is to find guys who are ready to be immediate starters (hard), or find guys who are willing to take the time to develop, and actually give them that time. That last part is awfully hard for some fans around here who declare guys a bust if they aren't immediate superstars.

[lo country]

2 hours ago, man eating mastodon said:

Bad hires have taken a toll for sure, hopefully Nebraska gets it right next time. 

I truly want Frost to succeed.  I have some concerns, but hoping for the sake of turning NU around the switch gets flipped and he's here a long time.  I do no longer believe the mantra "If not Frost, then who"....A lot of good coaches out there.

[lo country]

52 minutes ago, Toe said:

 

I think that guys not wanting to sit back and develop is a big part of the problem, but I think there's more to it than just where they're from.

 

The mass exodus of Riley's guys created a vacuum at the top. Especially at WR - our WR group was mostly freshmen and walk-ons this year. It's gotta be easier to accept a backup job when you're behind an upperclassman who is clearly a good player. That gives younger guys more time to grow and develop before they step onto the field, of course.

 

But when you're a guy like Fleming and you think you're a big shot future star, and there's no clear star ahead of you on the depth chart, what do you think? You think you should be the starter on day one, right? But was he actually ready to? A few guys might be ready enough when they step onto campus, but most aren't. Clearly, the coaches didn't think Fleming was ready to. And it's not like Frost is afraid to play a true freshman WR - Wandale worked out alright doing that. But riding the pine when some lower-rated guy is on the field is hard to swallow when you've got an ego.

 

So I think part of what we're seeing is essentially a negative feedback loop - guys not sticking around to become upperclassmen starters leading to more guys not sticking around to become upperclassmen starters. Having to play a bunch of guys who aren't as experienced as you need leads to more losses, and more losses leads to even more guys leaving.

 

I guess the only way to break the cycle is to find guys who are ready to be immediate starters (hard), or find guys who are willing to take the time to develop, and actually give them that time. That last part is awfully hard for some fans around here who declare guys a bust if they aren't immediate superstars.

That's some really good incite there.  A self fulfilling prophecy as it were.

[I AM FOOT FOOT]

22 minutes ago, lo country said:

I truly want Frost to succeed.  I have some concerns, but hoping for the sake of turning NU around the switch gets flipped and he's here a long time.  I do no longer believe the mantra "If not Frost, then who"....A lot of good coaches out there.

Agreed, id like to see him get Nebraska back to being respectable but so far its been far from it besides recruiting  which is still on par with what they had with the last few staffs.  I just don't see frost getting it done 

 

[melscott62]

56 minutes ago, lo country said:

I truly want Frost to succeed.  I have some concerns, but hoping for the sake of turning NU around the switch gets flipped and he's here a long time.  I do no longer believe the mantra "If not Frost, then who"....A lot of good coaches out there.

The difference with frost is he wouldn’t use this as a means to a better job.   I think many coaches would

[uberism]

2 hours ago, Toe said:

 

I think that guys not wanting to sit back and develop is a big part of the problem, but I think there's more to it than just where they're from.

 

The mass exodus of Riley's guys created a vacuum at the top. Especially at WR - our WR group was mostly freshmen and walk-ons this year. It's gotta be easier to accept a backup job when you're behind an upperclassman who is clearly a good player. That gives younger guys more time to grow and develop before they step onto the field, of course.

 

But when you're a guy like Fleming and you think you're a big shot future star, and there's no clear star ahead of you on the depth chart, what do you think? You think you should be the starter on day one, right? But was he actually ready to? A few guys might be ready enough when they step onto campus, but most aren't. Clearly, the coaches didn't think Fleming was ready to. And it's not like Frost is afraid to play a true freshman WR - Wandale worked out alright doing that. But riding the pine when some lower-rated guy is on the field is hard to swallow when you've got an ego.

 

So I think part of what we're seeing is essentially a negative feedback loop - guys not sticking around to become upperclassmen starters leading to more guys not sticking around to become upperclassmen starters. Having to play a bunch of guys who aren't as experienced as you need leads to more losses, and more losses leads to even more guys leaving.

 

I guess the only way to break the cycle is to find guys who are ready to be immediate starters (hard), or find guys who are willing to take the time to develop, and actually give them that time. That last part is awfully hard for some fans around here who declare guys a bust if they aren't immediate superstars.

 

No major disagreement, but there are regional differences. Nebraska won with meat, potatoes, corn fed players, not green diet types living on a beach. Sure there is athletic kids in Florida, and a lot of them in south Florida, but it's not a place where you will find many kids with the right type of mental makeup to fit in ,in today's world. Those kids are not likely even watching any Nebraska game and going here because it is there best option will lead them going into the portal and going to some lower level school. 

[Mavric]

HOL did an article on the B1G's 2018 recruiting classes today. 

 

Nebraska signed 25 players and has 13 of them left

Penn State signed 23 and has 16 left

Michigan State signed 22 and has 15

Iowa signed 23 and has 16

Minnesota signed 26 and has 14

Purdue signed 24 and has 17

Illinois signed 25 and has 15

Rutgers signed 22 and has 13

 

Other schools didn't lose as many.  But several of those schools didn't go through a coaching change and have lost nearly as many as we did in a transition class.

 

I'm not saying it's not an issue.  But it'd definitely not just a Nebraska thing.

[MyBloodIsRed16]

I'll worry when these guys who jump ship and then blow the doors off at the new school.  I don't keep up that much but its not like we are losing all-american talent.

[Farms]

4 minutes ago, MyBloodIsRed16 said:

I'll worry when these guys who jump ship and then blow the doors off at the new school.  I don't keep up that much but its not like we are losing all-american talent.

Correct. When people were talking about a mass exodus I stated that it would t surprise me to see 15 players leave but I’d be surprised if more than 2-3 are guys we’ll really miss.