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Tom Osborne made the WRONG decision in the 1984 Orange Bowl


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Let's say he goes for two earlier, like statistics said he should have, misses, then scores later and misses again. Not that he was going for it, but: 

 

What's the legacy? The legacy is two bonehead calls when he should have kicked the extra point. Now the legacy is: cojones.

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There was no OT then. It was win, lose or tie. Osborne's cojones were too big to go for a tie.   Win: 50% Lose: 50% Tie: not an option   Doesn't matter when you go for tw

Tom Osborne going for 2 against Miami has always been lauded as our great coach going for the win.  I always agreed with that decision, but it's easier to say that after NU won 3 National Championship

Here's a short video where Tom Osborne agrees that not going for two earlier was a mistake.

16 minutes ago, MinnwiscowaSker said:

Let's say he goes for two earlier, like statistics said he should have, misses, then scores later and misses again. Not that he was going for it, but: 

 

What's the legacy? The legacy is two bonehead calls when he should have kicked the extra point. Now the legacy is: cojones.

But, if Osborne explains, "Being down 14, I knew we needed 2 TD's to win or tie. I knew I would be going for 2 after the 2nd TD, but I wanted to do the mathematically appropriate strategy, so that's why I went for 2 after the first TD.  I knew if I missed the first 2 point conversion, I would at least have an opportunity to tie after the 2nd TD."  Of course, that would require fans and media to understand the math behind the decision, and that's easier said than done.

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23 hours ago, ColoradoHusk said:

Here's a chart I found on the interweb, so it looks most years the conversion rate is between 40-50%.  I have always assumed a 50% conversion rate.

 

NCAA_2_point_conversion_graph.jpg

 

 

What's really changed over time is the kick expected value, which obviously has continuously increased. I think the year to year variation in the two point conversion percentage is just random noise due to a small sample size.

 

 

I wonder what the values are like in the NFL with the extra point being from the 15 yard line, and the two point conversion being from the two yard line rather than the three yard line.

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17 minutes ago, Corn55 said:

 

 

I wonder what the values are like in the NFL with the extra point being from the 15 yard line, and the two point conversion being from the two yard line rather than the three yard line.

Across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the NFL PAT conversion percentage for the kick was 94.1%, while the 2 point conversions from the 2-yard line was 49.4% successful.  This would make the expected value of the 2-point conversion slightly higher than the kicked PAT.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-2-point-conversion-success-rate/14xqvso7ght731i836opc1oxgz#:~:text=NFL two-point conversion success,94.1 percent of the time.

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10 hours ago, ScarletRevival said:

It was the right call,  but with a tie he would have had one more national championship.

And you may not have seen Miami rise to a national power. 

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On 1/11/2021 at 1:33 PM, Mavric said:

 

Just like running the ball:

1 - gain yards

2 - lose yards

3 - fumble

You forgot, a fumble can at least be recovered by yer own team, INT’s, not.

On 1/11/2021 at 1:33 PM, Mavric said:

 

Just like running the ball:

1 - gain yards

2 - lose yards

3 - fumble

You forgot, a fumble can at least be recovered by yer own team, INT’s, not.

On 1/11/2021 at 1:33 PM, Mavric said:

 

Just like running the ball:

1 - gain yards

2 - lose yards

3 - fumble

You forgot, a fumble can at least be recovered by yer own team, INT’s, not.

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On 1/12/2021 at 4:10 PM, ColoradoHusk said:

Across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the NFL PAT conversion percentage for the kick was 94.1%, while the 2 point conversions from the 2-yard line was 49.4% successful.  This would make the expected value of the 2-point conversion slightly higher than the kicked PAT.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-2-point-conversion-success-rate/14xqvso7ght731i836opc1oxgz#:~:text=NFL two-point conversion success,94.1 percent of the time.

 

This stuff has been really interesting.  I never really thought about the percentages at the time, because it was win or lose.  I just barely remember they had to go for it even though chances were super difficult to convert during those times.  But I remember momentum felt good?  And after one replay it was obvious the play was perfect (even though I screamed for them throwing), but the Miami player made a great play to deflect the pass. I always knew if a player made a great play (for us or against us), then there is nothing you can do about it.  Miami defender saved the day for them, but killed our championship. Smith would have caught it and history rewritten.

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On 1/14/2021 at 9:12 AM, nupowr said:

If you go for 2 early, do it out of the kick formation.  

I'd rather have that Husker offense on the field to go 2 yards than try a fake field goal.  I'm just guessing, but I would be really surprised if any stats supported a fake fg.

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