Economy

[knapplc]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

It’s possible you don’t understand what “part of the problem” means

 

This snark isn't really necessary. I'm asking reasonable questions. All you had to do was say this:

 

2 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

It could be an important factor, it could be a smaller factor than what I think, but it is no doubt a factor.

 

The problem with the "they're just lazy" narrative is that the benefits they'd use to avoid work are finite. Even a modest apartment rent, plus utilities, would have eaten through the bailout money we all received by now, so it's not that.

 

Nor is it likely that it's the same people just staying out of work. Likely the employment churn of folks losing a job, then getting reemployed, is the major factor.

 

Nationwide we're looking at a 3.6% unemployment rate. That's a fraction of the population, and well within the fired/hired cycle. In April 6.6 million people were hired, and 6 million were separated/laid off/fired. It takes time to find a new job, so you're looking at a couple of weeks to a couple of months of turnaround there. 

 

The perpetually unemployed - the folks I think you're referring to as the "lazy" - are not a significant factor in society.

[Archy1221]

4 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

This snark isn't really necessary. I'm asking reasonable questions. All you had to do was say this:

It wasn’t snark, just an observation based on the wording of your previous post.  
 

7 minutes ago, knapplc said:

The perpetually unemployed - the folks I think you're referring to as the "lazy" - are not a significant factor in society.

What is “not a significant factor” in terms of numbers? 

[knapplc]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

What is “not a significant factor” in terms of numbers? 

 

Per the BLS, only 1.2%-1.6% of those surveyed gave "other reasons" for not working, even though they're in the "working age" bracket. Over 98% said they did not work because they are: Ill or Disabled, Retired, they have Home Responsibilities, or they are Going to School.

 

You stated - correctly - that the BLS doesn't have an "I'm lazy" answer on their survey, but if the lazy are represented in that 1.2% (which I think is safe to presume), that's insignificant compared to the working population.

[Archy1221]

10 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Per the BLS, only 1.2%-1.6% of those surveyed gave "other reasons" for not working, even though they're in the "working age" bracket.

Those were people in the want a job category.   
 

There were 35 million people aged 16-54 who “do not want a job”.  So different category.   How many of those fall into the perpetually unemployed but not significant part of society as you say?   

[knapplc]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Those were people in the want a job category.   
 

There were 35 million people aged 16-54 who “do not want a job”.  So different category.   How many of those fall into the perpetually unemployed but not significant part of society as you say?   

 

No, those were people in the working age group who are not working.  Per the BLS.

 

 

[Archy1221]

3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

No, those were people in the working age group who are not working.  Per the BLS.

 

 

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm

[Archy1221]

4 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

No, those were people in the working age group who are not working.  Per the BLS.

 

 

Aren’t you the same person who moaned and complained about a source I used from around 2014 or so  and then you go head and use a source from 2014 when I have already posted up to date 2021-2022 data

 

 

 

 

[BigRedBuster]

52 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Yes it is and agree.  We also have had a decline in college admittance of 7.8% so some of that boomer retirement should have been mitigated by less student enrollment (people eligible for work) 

That was discussed in my previous post.  The biggest group to enter the workforce is younger adults.  Part of that is because they aren't going to college.

 

But, it's not enough to counter all the other people leaving the workforce and lack of immigration.

[knapplc]

1 minute ago, Archy1221 said:

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm

 

Right. I read that. Those persons fall into the categories I listed above:  Ill or Disabled, Retired, they have Home Responsibilities, or they are Going to School. Only 1.6% of those said "other," which is where the "lazy" come in.

 

Here's another analysis of job participation:

 

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Now We Know What Happened to Those Workers Who Dropped Out During the Pandemic.

“To conclude, our analysis of the out-of-labor force activities in the (government data) reveals that shifts toward retirement and home care/family care have driven the shortfall in labor force participation,” says the paper, titled, “Why Are Workers Staying Out of the U.S. Labor Force?”

 

The details about retirement show how the pandemic affected a group of older workers whose labor force participation rates had been on the upswing prior to the pandemic. The percentage of retirees under 65 increased in 2021 to 46.7% from 44.5%. But the change brought the percentage closer to 2015-2016 levels, economist Victoria Gregory and research associate Joel Steinberg found.

 

“Enhanced unemployment programs, tax credits, rent and student loan moratoriums, and the child tax credit probably slowed job-seeking in 2020 and 2021, but the magnitude was probably small,” Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote after the jobs report’s release. “Whatever those programs' effects on the job market were, they are playing less of a role in 2022 since they have expired.”

 

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[BigRedBuster]

20 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Those were people in the want a job category.   
 

There were 35 million people aged 16-54 who “do not want a job”.  So different category.   How many of those fall into the perpetually unemployed but not significant part of society as you say?   

I would assume there's a large portion of those that are financially taken care of and possibly staying home to raise kids...etc.

 

I would not call someone like that "lazy".

[Archy1221]

42 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I would assume there's a large portion of those that are financially taken care of and possibly staying home to raise kids...etc.

 

I would not call someone like that "lazy".

Neither would I nor have I 

43 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Right. I read that. Those persons fall into the categories I listed above:  Ill or Disabled, Retired, they have Home Responsibilities, or they are Going to School. Only 1.6% of those said "other," which is where the "lazy" come in.

 

Here's another analysis of job participation:

 

 

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Now We Know What Happened to Those Workers Who Dropped Out During the Pandemic.

“To conclude, our analysis of the out-of-labor force activities in the (government data) reveals that shifts toward retirement and home care/family care have driven the shortfall in labor force participation,” says the paper, titled, “Why Are Workers Staying Out of the U.S. Labor Force?”

 

The details about retirement show how the pandemic affected a group of older workers whose labor force participation rates had been on the upswing prior to the pandemic. The percentage of retirees under 65 increased in 2021 to 46.7% from 44.5%. But the change brought the percentage closer to 2015-2016 levels, economist Victoria Gregory and research associate Joel Steinberg found.

 

“Enhanced unemployment programs, tax credits, rent and student loan moratoriums, and the child tax credit probably slowed job-seeking in 2020 and 2021, but the magnitude was probably small,” Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote after the jobs report’s release. “Whatever those programs' effects on the job market were, they are playing less of a role in 2022 since they have expired.”

 

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I don’t believe you are reading the graph correctly 

[BigRedBuster]

Can we all agree that there is a mass labor shortage in America and, even though some are staying home because they are "lazy", there are a lot bigger issues that are causing it?

[Archy1221]

3 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Can we all agree that there is a mass labor shortage in America and, even though some are staying home because they are "lazy", there are a lot bigger issues that are causing it?

Yes, the problem is multi factorial.  You and I seem to agree there.  We also agree, along with most everyone else, legal immigration is good, it’s just a matter of making it legal and figuring out the appropriate number.  We probably agree that DINK’s are also contributing to the problem (but it’s their choice) since they aren’t helping replace the boomers. 

[knapplc]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

I don’t believe you are reading the graph correctly 

 

I am. But if you can show different, please do.

[Stumpy1]

4 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

That was discussed in my previous post.  The biggest group to enter the workforce is younger adults.  Part of that is because they aren't going to college.

 

But, it's not enough to counter all the other people leaving the workforce and lack of immigration.

I'm not sure if you have seen it with your business but we are having a very hard time getting people of the younger generation hired.   We have outstanding benefits and pay pretty well but we have been noticing that younger people are more interested in dollar signs than they are in benefits.  We have had people turn down our offers to go and make $2-3/hr  more but have told us that they will have to pay for insurance which is no big deal to them.