Economy

[BigRedBuster]

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[DevoHusker]

On 7/25/2022 at 10:23 AM, funhusker said:

Not odd at all.  Since opponents are chomping at the bit to say we are in a recession.

 

And the WH did admit that some believe 2 quarters of negative GDP makes a recession.  They are just saying they will use a more holistic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JJ Husker]

I've got a stupid question.

If millions of people have left the work force (relatively few of them due to death from Covid) and businesses are short millions of employees to fill positions......what exactly are those millions of people doing to earn a living and pay their expenses?

 

I mean sure we all would like to just quit working but there's this little thing called money that is usually kind of nice to have, you know, for things like food, water, shelter.....  I'm struggling to figure out how that many people just decide to quit working and apparently it's not a problem for them. What am I missing?

[Born N Bled Red]

17 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

I've got a stupid question.

If millions of people have left the work force (relatively few of them due to death from Covid) and businesses are short millions of employees to fill positions......what exactly are those millions of people doing to earn a living and pay their expenses?

 

I mean sure we all would like to just quit working but there's this little thing called money that is usually kind of nice to have, you know, for things like food, water, shelter.....  I'm struggling to figure out how that many people just decide to quit working and apparently it's not a problem for them. What am I missing?

 

Its called retirement and decades domestic policies that discouraged a reproduction rate that would replace the boomer retirees that saw Covid as their sign it was time to enjoy their lives. 

[JJ Husker]

1 minute ago, Born N Bled Red said:

 

Its called retirement and decades domestic policies that discouraged a reproduction rate that would replace the boomer retirees that saw Covid as their sign it was time to enjoy their lives. 

I know that retirements account for much of it but I just have a hard time believing that is the full explanation that flipped labor supply and demand so drastically and suddenly. Gotta admit, it went pretty quickly from not a noticeable problem to damn, where can I find an employee.

 

Curious, what domestic policies discouraged the reproductive rate? Or are you just insinuating all sorts of economic issues and the costs of raising a family?

[Moiraine]

18 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

I know that retirements account for much of it but I just have a hard time believing that is the full explanation that flipped labor supply and demand so drastically and suddenly. Gotta admit, it went pretty quickly from not a noticeable problem to damn, where can I find an employee.

 

Curious, what domestic policies discouraged the reproductive rate? Or are you just insinuating all sorts of economic issues and the costs of raising a family?

 

 

I'd like to know the answer to that too since I think there are much stronger factors out there than policy.

[JJ Husker]

Gas $3.75 today, down another .64¢ in the last 8 days. Hopefully it keeps up this pace for another 2-3 weeks 

[Born N Bled Red]

21 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

Gas $3.75 today, down another .64¢ in the last 8 days. Hopefully it keeps up this pace for another 2-3 weeks 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/shell-reports-record-profit-11-061117220.html

 

More record profits for the oil companies though. This is greed not inflation. 

[JJ Husker]

14 minutes ago, Born N Bled Red said:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/shell-reports-record-profit-11-061117220.html

 

More record profits for the oil companies though. This is greed not inflation. 

I’m sure some, a lot, of it is greed but hear me out. In my business, many of my raw material costs have increased 200% to 300%. I’ve also had to raise my employees wages. My selling prices are arrived at pretty simply. I markup materials a certain percentage and sell my labor at the going rate (or what I think the going rate is). So, for discussion’s sake, let’s say that material percentage is 30%. So if one of my materials used to be $1.00 (.30¢ markup) now it’s $3.00 (90¢ markup). Not counting how much I’ve had to increase my labor rate, I’m making what amounts to an additional 60% based on prior material costs. Am I being greedy?

 

I will tell you I’ve cut my material a little because I realize what’s going on but still the bottom line is looking much better these days.

[Born N Bled Red]

1 hour ago, JJ Husker said:

I know that retirements account for much of it but I just have a hard time believing that is the full explanation that flipped labor supply and demand so drastically and suddenly. Gotta admit, it went pretty quickly from not a noticeable problem to damn, where can I find an employee.

 

Curious, what domestic policies discouraged the reproductive rate? Or are you just insinuating all sorts of economic issues and the costs of raising a family?

 

1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I'd like to know the answer to that too since I think there are much stronger factors out there than policy.

 

This labor shortage didn't just magically happen. I've read articles like this since I was in high school (Y2K era) predicting the this labor shortage. Here is a global report from 2014 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/labor-shortages/Mitigate-Potential-Labor-Shortage, its been updated with the times so you can explore their full report. Another recent article can be found here. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-labor-force-dropouts-march-morning-consult/

 

In 2020, 28% of the entire US population were Boomers or older. 21% are boomers. Combined, Gen X and Millennials make up 41% of the US population and Gen Z, those born between 1997 and 2012 account for 20.35 (half of which are above age 18.) So, approximately a third of the workforce and the replacement workforce GEN Z has half those numbers of age to work. This issue is exacerbated by the fact that the pandemic "encouraged" many boomers, not yet retirement age, to retire early and GEN Z seems to be entering the workforce more slowly. Fewer teens have jobs, and a greater percentage of those potential employees go to college, thus slowing their entrance to the workforce. 

 

"The share of Americans over age 55 who were working fell sharply when the pandemic began, plummeting 6 percentage points to 33.3 percent in March and April of 2020, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. And although those numbers have started to recover, it remains unclear how many of those older workers will pursue new employment or eventually declare, “Retired!” "

 

Domestic policies that have led to decreasing reproduction rates include: 

- The decision to not tie minimum wage to inflation

- The need for both parents of a family to work

- lack of social safety nets 

- the demonization of the working poor

- poor maternity/ paternity benefits and planning

- poor access to and affordability of childcare 

- increased access to birth control and family planning methods

- poor healthcare and unaffordable healthcare systems

- cost of higher education

- cost of home ownership

- cost of raising a kid- gone are the days that kids are a value add to a family once they are old enough to carry a bucket of feed to the chickens or drive a tractor. In the past, when America was more agrarian the more kids you had, the more hands you had to do the family's work. They contributed to the welfare of the family. Now kids are a fiscal drain on a family. 

 

Some explanation for those delays might be related to the economic changes during older millennials' early 20s, but even with a more stable economy, they're still having fewer kids. According to data from the National Center for Health Statistics, each generation has fewer children than the last: the birth rate in the U.S. has decreased from about 23.7 per 1,000 people in 1960 to only 12.4 in 2015. In the short time since the oldest millennials turned 18 in 1999, the birth rate has dropped 14%.

One of the often cited reasons people don't have or wait to have children is that kids are expensive. We explored the cost of raising a child over time (1960-2015) to assess whether recent trends in birth rates are related to changes in those costs.

Key Findings:

• Millennials are having fewer kids and waiting longer to have their first child than Baby Boomers or Gen Xers.

• Single mothers earn less and are more likely to live in poverty than single fathers and married parents; and millennials head more single-parent households than any other generation.

• The average cost of raising a child has increased $31,000 in real dollars since 1960.

• Parents are spending 1175% more on education and 155% more on healthcare in 2015 than 1960, and they're cutting on food (-14%) and clothing (-39%) to help pay for these expenses.

• Since 1990, daycare and nursery rates have grown 175%.

• Private-school tuition has increased over 43% since 1999.

https://listwithclever.com/research/cost-of-raising-a-child-over-time/

 

[Born N Bled Red]

22 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

I’m sure some, a lot, of it is greed but hear me out. In my business, many of my raw material costs have increased 200% to 300%. I’ve also had to raise my employees wages. My selling prices are arrived at pretty simply. I markup materials a certain percentage and sell my labor at the going rate (or what I think the going rate is). So, for discussion’s sake, let’s say that material percentage is 30%. So if one of my materials used to be $1.00 (.30¢ markup) now it’s $3.00 (90¢ markup). Not counting how much I’ve had to increase my labor rate, I’m making what amounts to an additional 60% based on prior material costs. Am I being greedy?

 

I will tell you I’ve cut my material a little because I realize what’s going on but still the bottom line is looking much better these days.

 

You gotta read the article my man, these are NET profits, not gross. Their profit margins have increased to record levels. And I am certain you are paying for increased shipping rates due to the globalized greed of our price gouging oil industry. How much of inflation throughout the supply chain can be attributed to fuel costs do you think? 

 

Your suppliers pay higher shipping costs and pass those on to you, you pay higher shipping costs and pass both your costs and your supplier costs on to the wholesaler, the wholesaler passes all those shipping cost plus their shipping costs on to the end sales, who pass all of those shipping costs on to the consumers. In truth when it comes to inflation calculation the costs of goods probably hasn't gone up- its the cost of shipping those goods that have been passed on to the consumer, then you factor in that the consumers also pay for fuel and is a MAJOR line item in the inflation category and then it becomes hugely apparent that MOST of inflation is the result of high fuel prices. Maybe a bit of it comes from increased labor costs, but I'd recon 70% of our inflation rate is accounted by the near tripling of fuel costs. Its just masked as its passed on (as shipping costs) to consumers through the sale of goods. 

 

No wonder oil companies are reporting record profits. 

 

[Moiraine]

40 minutes ago, Born N Bled Red said:

 

 

This labor shortage didn't just magically happen. I've read articles like this since I was in high school (Y2K era) predicting the this labor shortage. Here is a global report from 2014 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/labor-shortages/Mitigate-Potential-Labor-Shortage, its been updated with the times so you can explore their full report. Another recent article can be found here. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-labor-force-dropouts-march-morning-consult/

 

In 2020, 28% of the entire US population were Boomers or older. 21% are boomers. Combined, Gen X and Millennials make up 41% of the US population and Gen Z, those born between 1997 and 2012 account for 20.35 (half of which are above age 18.) So, approximately a third of the workforce and the replacement workforce GEN Z has half those numbers of age to work. This issue is exacerbated by the fact that the pandemic "encouraged" many boomers, not yet retirement age, to retire early and GEN Z seems to be entering the workforce more slowly. Fewer teens have jobs, and a greater percentage of those potential employees go to college, thus slowing their entrance to the workforce. 

 

"The share of Americans over age 55 who were working fell sharply when the pandemic began, plummeting 6 percentage points to 33.3 percent in March and April of 2020, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. And although those numbers have started to recover, it remains unclear how many of those older workers will pursue new employment or eventually declare, “Retired!” "

 

Domestic policies that have led to decreasing reproduction rates include: 

- The decision to not tie minimum wage to inflation

- The need for both parents of a family to work

- lack of social safety nets 

- the demonization of the working poor

- poor maternity/ paternity benefits and planning

- poor access to and affordability of childcare 

- increased access to birth control and family planning methods

- poor healthcare and unaffordable healthcare systems

- cost of higher education

- cost of home ownership

- cost of raising a kid- gone are the days that kids are a value add to a family once they are old enough to carry a bucket of feed to the chickens or drive a tractor. In the past, when America was more agrarian the more kids you had, the more hands you had to do the family's work. They contributed to the welfare of the family. Now kids are a fiscal drain on a family. 

 

Some explanation for those delays might be related to the economic changes during older millennials' early 20s, but even with a more stable economy, they're still having fewer kids. According to data from the National Center for Health Statistics, each generation has fewer children than the last: the birth rate in the U.S. has decreased from about 23.7 per 1,000 people in 1960 to only 12.4 in 2015. In the short time since the oldest millennials turned 18 in 1999, the birth rate has dropped 14%.

One of the often cited reasons people don't have or wait to have children is that kids are expensive. We explored the cost of raising a child over time (1960-2015) to assess whether recent trends in birth rates are related to changes in those costs.

Key Findings:

• Millennials are having fewer kids and waiting longer to have their first child than Baby Boomers or Gen Xers.

• Single mothers earn less and are more likely to live in poverty than single fathers and married parents; and millennials head more single-parent households than any other generation.

• The average cost of raising a child has increased $31,000 in real dollars since 1960.

• Parents are spending 1175% more on education and 155% more on healthcare in 2015 than 1960, and they're cutting on food (-14%) and clothing (-39%) to help pay for these expenses.

• Since 1990, daycare and nursery rates have grown 175%.

• Private-school tuition has increased over 43% since 1999.

https://listwithclever.com/research/cost-of-raising-a-child-over-time/

 

I think everyone knows the population is top heavy and why. What you're pasting in the last 1/3 doesn't show that cost is related to having fewer kids. Maybe that's in the article. You should share that part if it's there.

I don't think policy has as much to do with this as you think it does. Women joining the workforce does, but that's more related to women wanting to work. That may have led to a 1-earner household not being enough because some companies figured out they could take advantage and did, which in turn could be related to a lower birth rate, but I don't know that that's the case. Birth control also does, and I wouldn't call that policy.

I also doubt that all of these green countries have the same policies. I think this is far more to do with gender equality, birth control, and less need for manual labor in the family unit, rather than policies (China excluded).

 

 

Blue is higher usage of modern birth control, red is lower.

[Born N Bled Red]

32 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

I think everyone knows the population is top heavy and why. What you're pasting in the last 1/3 doesn't show that cost is related to having fewer kids. Maybe that's in the article. You should share that part if it's there.

I don't think policy has as much to do with this as you think it does. Women joining the workforce does, but that's more related to women wanting to work. That may have led to a 1-earner household not being enough because some companies figured out they could take advantage and did, which in turn could be related to a lower birth rate, but I don't know that that's the case. Birth control also does, and I wouldn't call that policy.

I also doubt that all of these green countries have the same policies. I think this is far more to do with gender equality, birth control, and less need for manual labor in the family unit, rather than policies (China excluded).

 

 

Blue is higher usage of modern birth control, red is lower.

 

Indeed, access to birth control is a major factor. However, economic policies of the United State limit how many children people are willing to have. MANY, many people in my friend group have lamented they would have more kids if they weren't so damn expensive. This article argues some of what I was trying to elucidate better. 

 

"But the reality of why American families are smaller is not about a failing national character or a decline in women’s femininity. It’s about money. Because while many more women are choosing to have no children or fewer children, others are having fewer children than they would like. And for these women, their own smaller families are the result not of their own personal selfishness or moral degradation, but of economic constraints. For all of the pro-natalist handwringing over America’s shrinking tax base, the United States has spent shockingly little of its annual tax revenues on creating accessible and effective support for mothers. For years, the US has made domestic policy that has punished women for becoming mothers, and by extension, de-incentivized those who want to have as many children as they would like. This is one reason why the birth rate has declined so much: women are not given enough material support by the state to be able to raise children while still leading prosperous, economically productive lives."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/09/us-birth-rate-decline-one-economics-coronavirus