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Turnover plus and minus for Huskers the past 15 years


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A crazy stat article by Dirk from 2019.  We are a huge anomaly when it comes to turnovers.  NU has the honor of being dead last in TO margin the past 15 years....Getting more and losing less has got to worth 3-4 games a year as close as most have been.  But 15 years.....How do you fix that?

 

From the article:

 According to analytics experts like ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the average value of a turnover is 4-5 points. In other words, based on thousands of games, a team minus-3 in turnover margin spots an opponent an average of 12-15 points. Two touchdowns.

 

https://omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/teams/football/chatelain-this-bizarre-husker-stat-is-so-insane-scott-frost-couldnt-believe-its-true/article_c9eadecd-a2e4-5ccc-9226-ecfaf59d38cc.html

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2 minutes ago, Corn55 said:

Update for the last two years. We had a turnover margin of exactly zero in 2019. In 2020, we had a turnover margin of -11.

I think the past 3 seasons W-L record more accurately correlate with what the statistics show.  And that's not a good trend....

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Watched every game during BS covid lockdowns April-June on YouTube from 1991-2010 that was available. 
 

if you watch the Cornhuskers for those 20 years you can see in plain motion  

of our biggest flaw/downfall it’s 

 

1.  Top talent 

2. turnovers

3. Penalties 
 

everyone wants talent, we gotta get ours and develop it. 
beyond that, let’s not turn the ball over and have self killing penalties. 
the first is hard, but the the last two...we have to be better by desire. If we limit turnovers and penalties we win dozens of more games the last 20 yrs...Watch the tape of those years, it’s how we won, and now it’s we are losing. 

 
 

 

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18 hours ago, I am I said:

Watched every game during BS covid lockdowns April-June on YouTube from 1991-2010 that was available. 
 

if you watch the Cornhuskers for those 20 years you can see in plain motion  

of our biggest flaw/downfall it’s 

 

1.  Top talent 

2. turnovers

3. Penalties 
 

everyone wants talent, we gotta get ours and develop it. 
beyond that, let’s not turn the ball over and have self killing penalties. 
the first is hard, but the the last two...we have to be better by desire. If we limit turnovers and penalties we win dozens of more games the last 20 yrs...Watch the tape of those years, it’s how we won, and now it’s we are losing. 

 
 

 

I agree with your 3 points. The old "jimmy's and joe's" argument.  I think the key to talent is really develop the guys we have.  We need to go after the "stars", but we will not be able to get a roster like Clemson, Bama, OSU etc......We have consistently out recruited the West, but continually lose to them......Get the kids we can and work like hell to make them better.  I have complained about an inability to develop talent for a while.  So many times a guy looks good his first year as a starter and then seem to regress.....The defensive side is the first one in some time that guys seem to be getting better.  Maybe more familiar with the scheme, their fit etc....But improved performance.  I also think scheme lends to some of the success or failure of the kids we have (scheme with what we have, not what you want).

 

Turnovers and penalties are true killers. We have too many TO's and do not get near enough.  Even breaking even would be huge.  And our inability to recover a fumble is mind boggling.  In the NFL, win the TO battle and your winning percentage is 78%.....If we can't get them, we need to stop giving them.....And penalties (coupled with poor field position) are something this team doesn't have the firepower to overcome.  We are not great "when on schedule" and even worse when behind.  And nothing gets us behind schedule quicker than penalties....I think 2 and 3 would be easier (quicker?) to fix than talent....But then again, we have struggled with 2 and 3 for quite some time...

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