Lubick to leave?

[Husker in WI]

21 minutes ago, CFHusker said:

Games cannot be an outlier whether really good or really bad.   

 

Right, no outliers here. 

[Wistrom Disciple]

30 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

Thanks for the research on Mills inside the 5 - that is better than I expected for sure. But I would disagree about it being consistent. I like my 4.7 average to not be dependent on one game against Rutgers. He averaged 3.5 across the other 5 games he played - consistent 3.5 with potential for an explosion isn't great. Obviously everyone has good and bad games, but a drop of 1.2 per carry based on one game is a pretty big outlier. And the year before was similar, more outliers (2) because of more games played (12).

 

In his Nebraska career he's basically a 3.7 YPC back (15 games), with a 16% chance of being a 9.3 YPC back (3 games). For the comment about the 3.6 average in 2019 being decent instead of bad - it's a bad average for a college back. And I wasn't clear on it in the post, but I was trying to say individual games were mediocre to bad - 15/44 and 10/26 are really bad. 11/67 is  better than mediocre. So maybe not the most accurate range. The one great game against Wisconsin makes this interesting, his other 2 big games were against 83rd (RU - 2020) and 113th (NIU - 2019) defenses in YPC allowed and I'd be tempted to say he only ran on bad defenses. 

 

This is a lot of negativity which I don't like to do, I appreciate that Mills was a solid back and I liked watching him. But after that Wisconsin game the narrative was "he figured it out, he's a top Big Ten back!" and I just don't think the numbers bear that out. He was generally average at best, with the potential for an occasional huge game. Which does make him in some sense above average, but we need consistency.

 

I think we simply have different expectations of what the RB position is supposed to do in the offense. My impression from your answers is that you're expecting tons of yards and explosive plays from the position which is great when it happens. Typically these backs have a speed element which was not a strong attribute for Mills. However, we also need backs to grind out first downs and control the clock and tempo. Mills was exceptional at this when he was healthy. 

 

The stats you're pointing out and removing the outliers from are not actually that bad for a Big Ten runningback as the Big Ten tends to have better defenses than most of college football. @CFHuskeris correct that you can't pull out the best games and make the jump to a conclusion. You wouldn't want me to flip the argument and remove the games against the best defenses as that would pad his stats in my favor. 

 

@ZRod, my thoughts exactly. The Rutgers game was the game you're thinking of here. Mills had a big run to the 2 yard line and then was subbed out. Took us four tries but Wandale got in on fourth down from the one.

[CFHusker]

49 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Right, no outliers here. 

Those are games  Avg yards per carry should include all carries and all games.  It is an objective stat vs. subjective.  In your chart above 11 out of 16 games he had 4ish yds or better per carry.  If I had to explain Mills to a buddy who had never watched him play, I would consider him about a 4 yds per carry guy.  Which is good.  He is a tough SOB, that played hurt often.  The o line play needs a RB like Ameer that can bounce lateral quick to get to a crease.  Or an Ozigbo that could pressure the los before commiting to a crease.  Mills is a straight shot run you over RB and the O line isnt quite good enough to maximize Mills.  I hope he finds success in the NFL, but I see him doing better maybe in Canada.

 

[ZRod]

1 hour ago, Wistrom Disciple said:

I think we simply have different expectations of what the RB position is supposed to do in the offense. My impression from your answers is that you're expecting tons of yards and explosive plays from the position which is great when it happens. Typically these backs have a speed element which was not a strong attribute for Mills. However, we also need backs to grind out first downs and control the clock and tempo. Mills was exceptional at this when he was healthy. 

 

The stats you're pointing out and removing the outliers from are not actually that bad for a Big Ten runningback as the Big Ten tends to have better defenses than most of college football. @CFHuskeris correct that you can't pull out the best games and make the jump to a conclusion. You wouldn't want me to flip the argument and remove the games against the best defenses as that would pad his stats in my favor. 

 

@ZRod, my thoughts exactly. The Rutgers game was the game you're thinking of here. Mills had a big run to the 2 yard line and then was subbed out. Took us four tries but Wandale got in on fourth down from the one.

That's probably the one. Sounds exactly right. Work has my brain fried so I'm sketchy on the specifics, but I remember thinking at the time "get him back in there on 3rd or 4th down!"

[lo country]

8 hours ago, J-MAGIC said:

 

I, too, magically wish Nebraska was Alabama

Who doesn't.  Point being game manager vs QB who carries the team...Looking back at TO's run.  Wow.  Glad I got to see it.

[Mavric]

2 hours ago, CFHusker said:

Games cannot be an outlier whether really good or really bad.   

 

Um .... I'm not sure you understand what an "outlier" is.

[ColoradoHusk]

1 hour ago, Mavric said:

 

Um .... I'm not sure you understand what an "outlier" is.

Somebody didn’t take Stats 215 at UNL. 

[Wistrom Disciple]

14 hours ago, Mavric said:

Um .... I'm not sure you understand what an "outlier" is.

To be fair, I think the point @CFHusker tried to make was that you shouldn't subjectively jump to a conclusion by removing the best or worst games as it skews the stats towards one side or the other. For instance, pulling out the three best games (1/6 of his career games for us) indicates Mills is a 3.71 YPC back. On the other end, pulling out the three worst games would push his average to 5.42 YPC. 

 

Instead, take an objective approach in considering the totality of his career as the means for judging whether the player is good or bad. In this case, 1,141 yards over 227 carries = 5.03 YPC career average indicate that Mills was a solid player for us (when healthy) even though he did not produce a ton of highlight plays or games. Hopefully we can once again have a dominant running game with a feature back coming soon. 

[Undone]

On 1/28/2021 at 8:23 AM, Canadian Fan said:

New structure?

Frost:         HC & QB Coach 

New Guy:  New QB Analyst

New Guy:  OC & WR Coach

New Guy:  Dedicated ST Coach 

 

So you switch some things around but biggest change is you move from a full-time QB coach to a full-time ST coach.

 

 

Here's my restructuring list:

 

Frost: 1st Head Coach Runner-Up & Supreme Meme Lord

Tom Osborne: Head Coach & Assistant Meme Lord

Tom Osborne: New QB Analyst

Tom Osborne: New Offensive Coordinator

Tom Osborne: WR Coach

Tom Osborne: Dedicated ST Coach

[J-MAGIC]

3 hours ago, Wistrom Disciple said:

To be fair, I think the point @CFHusker tried to make was that you shouldn't subjectively jump to a conclusion by removing the best or worst games as it skews the stats towards one side or the other. For instance, pulling out the three best games (1/6 of his career games for us) indicates Mills is a 3.71 YPC back. On the other end, pulling out the three worst games would push his average to 5.42 YPC. 

 

Instead, take an objective approach in considering the totality of his career as the means for judging whether the player is good or bad. In this case, 1,141 yards over 227 carries = 5.03 YPC career average indicate that Mills was a solid player for us (when healthy) even though he did not produce a ton of highlight plays or games. Hopefully we can once again have a dominant running game with a feature back coming soon. 

 

That's fair, but I think the original point being made here is that Mills was a very boom-or-bust player and was far often more bust than boom. That's not really going to be reflected by looking at just pure average per carry. 

 

I would be interested to see what Mills' yards after contact stats were. That's more reflective of how good a back actually is. Any yards gained before contact are mostly a result of coaches scheming stuff open or great blocking and any replacement-level player can get that yardage. The truly worthwhile backs are the one who can get you yardage beyond what would be immediately available to replacement-level players. I remember most of Mills' big games coming from him running through Mack-truck sized holes and going down at first contact quite often. I'm not trying to trash anyone, but I think we can get a lot more production from the RB position than he was giving us.

[Mavric]

21 minutes ago, J-MAGIC said:

 

That's fair, but I think the original point being made here is that Mills was a very boom-or-bust player and was far often more bust than boom. That's not really going to be reflected by looking at just pure average per carry. 

 

I would be interested to see what Mills' yards after contact stats were. That's more reflective of how good a back actually is. Any yards gained before contact are mostly a result of coaches scheming stuff open or great blocking and any replacement-level player can get that yardage. The truly worthwhile backs are the one who can get you yardage beyond what would be immediately available to replacement-level players. I remember most of Mills' big games coming from him running through Mack-truck sized holes and going down at first contact quite often. I'm not trying to trash anyone, but I think we can get a lot more production from the RB position than he was giving us.

 

According to Pro Football Focus, Mills was #268 in the country in "Elusive Rating".  If I filter out the players who had fewer than 50 attempts, he's still only #149 in the country.  For comparison, Ozigbo was #55 in the country among those with at least 50 attempts in 2018.  I tried to go back and find numbers for Abdullah or Burkhead but those stats don't go back that far.

 

[The PFF "Elusive Rating" distills the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking in front of him by looking at how hard he was to bring down.  The Formula: (Missed Tackles Forced) / (Designed Run Attempts + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact Per Attempt * 100)]

 

Another issue with Mills is that he just isn't a big-play threat.  Only 4 of his 84 carries went for 15+ yards.  His "Breakaway Percent" ranked #173 in the country for backs with at least 50 carries.  At least Ozigbo was #77 in that metric in 2018 (16 such carries in 159 attempts).

 

[The PFF "Breakaway Percentage" shows which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).]

[All Hail Herbie]

On 2/2/2021 at 6:14 PM, ColoradoHusk said:

I honestly don't mind running a smaller guy with strong legs in short yardage situations.  Those types of guys can find creases and make up for lack of effective blocking.  

 While I would not describe our redzone play calling as too cute, it seems to lack calibration at times. 

 

Regardless of our debate on the topic, we will soon find out if a consistent bowl quality SEC team uses Wandale in the much the same fashion in the red zone.  I suspect they will not...

[Wistrom Disciple]

1 hour ago, J-MAGIC said:

That's fair, but I think the original point being made here is that Mills was a very boom-or-bust player and was far often more bust than boom. That's not really going to be reflected by looking at just pure average per carry. 

 

I would be interested to see what Mills' yards after contact stats were. That's more reflective of how good a back actually is. Any yards gained before contact are mostly a result of coaches scheming stuff open or great blocking and any replacement-level player can get that yardage. The truly worthwhile backs are the one who can get you yardage beyond what would be immediately available to replacement-level players. I remember most of Mills' big games coming from him running through Mack-truck sized holes and going down at first contact quite often. I'm not trying to trash anyone, but I think we can get a lot more production from the RB position than he was giving us.

Good point, and yes YPC isn't the only indication of a good or bad player. The stats were intended to show that he was not "mediocre to bad" as a skewed statistic was initially stated. I was trying to make a point that stats can be twisted to fit a narrative if desired. 

 

I will disagree with the boom or bust assessment. Might just be semantics but I consider a bust to be a player who severely dropped below the average. Since Mills only had three games under 3.0 yards/carry, I thought he was decent for us. Blocking was certainly suspect during his two years but I thought he did a solid job overall.

 

1 hour ago, Mavric said:

Another issue with Mills is that he just isn't a big-play threat. 

Thank you for the insights, pretty interesting stuff! As for the quoted portion above, I don't believe anyone had the expectation for Mills to be a home-run type of back when we got him. Maybe it's just revisionist history on my end, I was under the impression that he would be a workhorse back similar to how he was used at JUCO. The intention being to have him eat up a handful of yards and help us control the clock/tempo. Johnson & Morrsion would be our speed backs with Mills as the power/short yardage guy. 

[Mavric]

23 minutes ago, Wistrom Disciple said:

Good point, and yes YPC isn't the only indication of a good or bad player. The stats were intended to show that he was not "mediocre to bad" as a skewed statistic was initially stated. I was trying to make a point that stats can be twisted to fit a narrative if desired. 

 

I will disagree with the boom or bust assessment. Might just be semantics but I consider a bust to be a player who severely dropped below the average. Since Mills only had three games under 3.0 yards/carry, I thought he was decent for us. Blocking was certainly suspect during his two years but I thought he did a solid job overall.

 

I mean ... under 3.0 yards per carry is a pretty low bar.  Under 3.0 is "why are we doing this in the first place?" range.  And also helpful that he also had two right at 3.0 and two more at 3.1.  So seven games at or below 3.1.  Out of 18.  Nearly 40% of the time he couldn't average over 3.1.  That's pretty bad.  Definitely bust category.  And 12 out of 18 he didn't average 4.0.  67% of the time he was getting less than 4 yards per carry.  That is nothing resembling a "solid job".

 

For comparision, 4.0 yards per carry was #76 in the country last year.  Bottom half.  Not great.

 

Quote

Thank you for the insights, pretty interesting stuff! As for the quoted portion above, I don't believe anyone had the expectation for Mills to be a home-run type of back when we got him. Maybe it's just revisionist history on my end, I was under the impression that he would be a workhorse back similar to how he was used at JUCO. The intention being to have him eat up a handful of yards and help us control the clock/tempo. Johnson & Morrsion would be our speed backs with Mills as the power/short yardage guy. 

 

I don't think anyone was necessarily expecting that from him either.  I don't think many were expecting that from Ozigbo before he improved significantly his senior year.

 

But it's really hard to plod your way down the field getting 3.something yards per carry all the time.  You have to be able to get some chunk plays.  Mills doesn't do that.  So that's a big reason they offense has been struggling.

 

[Husker in WI]

1 minute ago, Mavric said:

 

I mean ... under 3.0 yards per carry is a pretty low bar.  Under 3.0 is "why are we doing this in the first place?" range.  And also helpful that he also had two right at 3.0 and two more at 3.1.  So seven games at or below 3.1.  Out of 18.  Nearly 40% of the time he couldn't average over 3.1.  That's pretty bad.  Definitely bust category.  And 12 out of 18 he didn't average 4.0.  67% of the time he was getting less than 4 yards per carry.  That is nothing resembling a "solid job".

 

 

I don't think anyone was necessarily expecting that from him either.  I don't think many were expecting that from Ozigbo before he improved significantly his senior year.

 

But it's really hard to plod your way down the field getting 3.something yards per carry all the time.  You have to be able to get some chunk plays.  Mills doesn't do that.  So that's a big reason they offense has been struggling.

 

 

That's pretty much what I was typing up - 3 bad games and 3 great games is fine. But I have a different bar I guess and do not consider the 3-4 YPC games good enough either. So from my perspective it was a lot more than 3 bad games. 

 

There's totally room for arguments that the blocking, surrounding cast, and/or playcalling holding Mills back. But I don't think it's really debatable that outside of 3-4 games he did not perform well, regardless of the reasons. I'll miss him because he seemed like a good dude and when he went off he went off, but the backs we have now are better fits and I'm optimistic we'll get more consistent performances.