2021 Schedule Analysis and Breakdown- Initial Thoughts

[seaofred92]

Obviously we'll dive deeper into it as we get into the summer and closer to next season but here are my initial thoughts on 2021's schedule (2021 SP+ projected team ranking in parentheses):

 

8/28 @ Illinois (83) (Dublin): Game is currently scheduled to take place in Ireland but as we've figured out that is unlikely to take place. Most likely, this game will occur in Champagne. In the conference schedule release last week, this game was still listed as taking place on 8/28 and I believe the thought here is even if they move the game stateside it'll remain in week 0. This is a HUGE opportunity for NU as the other week 0 games are: UConn @ Fresno State, Hawaii @ UCLA, Southern Utah @ SJSU, and UTEP @ NMSU. NU's game should get a standalone window with PLENTY of eyeballs on it, and Illinois will be breaking in Brett Bielema as head coach. This is a flat out must win game for NU. A loss here could send things spiraling FAST. I fully expect us to be ready for this game and if we make a statement, roll that momentum into the coming weeks.  

 

9/11 Buffalo (77): The Bulls had a very strong season last year, led by stud running back Jaret Patterson who thankfully will be going to the NFL. In the past three seasons, the Bulls have won 2 division titles, have three bowl appearances with two wins, and a top 25 ranking to finish the 2020 season. While on paper this team might take a step back next season, the Bulls have clearly established a winning culture under Coach Leipold and should be ready to play when they come to Lincoln this fall. This is a "how mature is NU" game and I actually think the off week between the Illinois game and this one could help NU. We saw how the team handled beating PSU this season with the Illinois major letdown the following week. NU needs to be ready to play this game as this Bulls team is a much better challenge for NU than most fans will realize. 

 

9/18 @ Oklahoma (3): Lol. Sooners open up on the road in New Orleans at Yulman Stadium against Tulane and then come home to beat up on Western Carolina in week 2. This team is humming into the offseason after throttling Florida in their NY6 game and having their QB Rattler finally settle in during the second half of the season. When you think about NU's lack of pass rush combined with OU's major defensive improvement under Grinch last season, this game has potential to get very ugly. If NU stays within 14 points here I'd be ecstatic and that's more of a reflection of where OU is than where NU is. I think OU could be a playoff team in 2021. 

 

9/25 @ Michigan State (59): Similar to Buffalo, this is another "how mature/tough mentally are we?" game. NU probably SHOULD win this game. But nothing over the last 3 years has given me confidence we will. Mel Tucker knows NU from his Colorado days and while the Spartans were up and down in his first year in East Lansing, they did beat both Michigan and Northwestern last season. Probably another swing game for the mood of the season, if NU wins it shows we are taking a step forward. If we come out sleepy here and get pumped, Frost's seat will legitimately get hot for the first time me thinks. 

 

10/2 Northwestern (75): One of the standard bearers in the Big Ten West. NU fans know this team has been a thorn in the Huskers side since joining the league. They are the antithesis of Nebraska- under talented but incredibly well prepared, coached, and mentally tough. Never beat themselves. As a result, they win games vs teams like NU who are mentally weak and commit sloppy penalties and plays. The Wildcats have added another QB transfer for 2021 and have won the Big Ten West 2 of the last 3 seasons. I expect them to be great yet again this season and this would be a big time win for Frost despite the lack of "brand" name associated with the Wildcats program. 

 

10/9 Michigan (23): I have no idea what to expect from Michigan in 2021. The OC Gattis has been a relative flop.. Harbaugh shifted his staff bringing in a new DC and sometimes you just need new blood and new voices to get guys motivated. The Wolverines need better QB play and everything else will seemingly fall into place, however I don't know if 2021 is the year they get it. Despite being anointed the savior last year in pre-season, I doubt they go with Joe Milton, who was benched by the end of this year in favor of Cade McNamara. It'll probably come down to McNamara vs the new kid on the block, 5* QB JJ McCarthy for the starting role. Again, nearly impossible to know what to expect from Michigan right now without knowing what the defense will look like or who will be the QB. 

 

10/16 @ Minnesota (31): There honestly may not be a team I want to beat more in 2021 than Minnesota. This team should not be beating NU on a regular basis, they just shouldn't. They are currently ahead of NU program development wise but I sort of feel like they're at their ceiling right now as evidenced by Fleck putting his name in the rung for Tennessee. NU should've won this game in 2020 but blew it with poorly timed penalties and mistakes (shocker). The zone run scheme gives us fits every year, although last year with our MUCH improved LB play we did better. Minnesota is like a lesser version of Iowa- meh QB play usually a good to great Big Ten running back that runs behind a big OL and one perimeter playmaker. Can NU finally find the recipe to shut this team down?

 

10/30 Purdue (40): After an idle week- NU hosts the Boilermakers for the first time since Frost's first year at NU. No idea what has happened to Jeff Brohm's club (lack of QB play most likely) but they are going to be on their third DC in 3 seasons and have QB issues of their own. NU pretty much dominated this game in 2020 and almost blew it at the end- I think Purdue may be the second worst team in the Big Ten in 2021. NU has to and should win this game at home. 

 

11/6 Ohio State (4): Similar to the OU commentary above, NU isn't winning this game. Keeping the final score within 2 touchdowns would be great. OSU is somehow getting MORE talented and while they have to break in a new QB does anyone have any doubt they'll successfully find another stud at that position? Their skill positions are better than NU's defenders across the board and while we made some plays on the lines last year, they have better linemen across the board than NU does too. Overall you just want to see what NU did in this year's game, play hard and make some plays when they present themselves. Who knows where the chips fall from there. 

 

11/13 Southeastern Louisiana (NR): One of the best scheduling moves NU has made in years, the Lions come to Lincoln late in the year to break up the Big Ten grind. Nebraska needs to do what it did to Bethune Cookman and get up big and pull their starters at halftime at the latest. 

 

11/20 @ Wisconsin (9): Badgers were VERY inconsistent in 2020.. possibly regressing a little? Mertz was good then.. not so good. Obviously he was young and you'd expect him to make a jump this year but I'm very curious where the Badgers lie in 2021. They could be coming into this game as a serious playoff contender with a neutral site win over ND.. or they could have 4 losses. Neither would surprise me but one thing I think I know about this game- NU feels as though Wisconsin ducked us this year and will be ready to play this game. I actually think we finally get the Wisconsin monkey off our back and win this game. 

 

11/27 Iowa (16): So happy this game is back on Black Friday. Eichorst should be a curse word in the state of Nebraska. What an idiot. That being said- if we do beat Wisconsin like I have highlighted above, I don't know that we have the consistency to piece it together and beat Iowa the following week. NU has been extremely close against Iowa all 3 years Frost has been here. I want to win this game BADLY. But I'll believe it when I see it that we actually get the W. The Hawkeyes return Spencer Petras who NU was able to harass fairly successfully in this year's game. We know what the Hawkeyes will bring to this game- they're a better version of Minnesota. Big OL, one perimeter skill guy with a good to great RB. Likely a fringe top 25 team, Iowa will be ready for this game (they always are). The question is can NU finally fight back and beat these guys?

 

 

Overall Thoughts: It's a very challenging schedule for a variety of reasons. Lots of mental "gut-check" moments early in the season that will determine how the second half plays out. I think playing week 0 and getting the "extra" off week could be a sneaky advantage for this team, so long as we get the W over the Illini in that game. NU really needs to win a game it isn't supposed to this year in order to make that "jump", the closest thing to a "big" win we have in Frosts tenure is... Michigan State 2018 in the snow? But even then that MSU team wasn't great. How we respond to what will likely be big loses to OU and OSU will show me a lot about this team. The last 5 games of the year after the idle week NU NEEDS to go at least 3-2. SELA is an automatic win- meaning they'd split games v Purdue, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa. That would be a major jump forward for this team and likely put us into a bowl game, which is quite frankly a must in 2021 if Frost is going to continue this slow build with everyone on board. I'm not making win/loss predictions in this thread but right now I'd mark 9 of the 12 games on this as "toss ups" and 2 "sure losses" against OSU/OU and 1 "sure win". That means its likely going to come down to our mental toughness and ability to win close games, which if you follow NU football you know likely means bad things for NU. Hopefully this year's team is finally the team that gets over the hump and starts winning these close games and turning the tide. 

 

Difficulty of schedule by SP+ projected rating:

 

9/18 @ Oklahoma (3)

11/6 Ohio State (4) 

11/20 @ Wisconsin (9)

11/27 Iowa (16)

11/6 Michigan (23)

10/16 @ Minnesota (31)

10/30 Purdue (40)

9/25 @ Michigan State (59)

10/2 Northwestern (75)

9/11  Buffalo (77)

8/28 @ Illinois (83) (Dublin)

11/13 SELA (NR)

[Husker in WI]

15 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

Obviously we'll dive deeper into it as we get into the summer and closer to next season but here are my initial thoughts on 2021's schedule:

 

8/28 @ Illinois (Dublin): Game is currently scheduled to take place in Ireland but as we've figured out that is unlikely to take place. Most likely, this game will occur in Champagne. In the conference schedule release last week, this game was still listed as taking place on 8/28 and I believe the thought here is even if they move the game stateside it'll remain in week 0. This is a HUGE opportunity for NU as the other week 0 games are: UConn @ Fresno State, Hawaii @ UCLA, Southern Utah @ SJSU, and UTEP @ NMSU. NU's game should get a standalone window with PLENTY of eyeballs on it, and Illinois will be breaking in Brett Bielema as head coach. This is a flat out must win game for NU. A loss here could send things spiraling FAST. I fully expect us to be ready for this game and if we make a statement, roll that momentum into the coming weeks.  

 

9/11 Buffalo: The Bulls had a very strong season last year, led by stud running back Jaret Patterson who thankfully will be going to the NFL. In the past three seasons, the Bulls have won 2 division titles, have three bowl appearances with two wins, and a top 25 ranking to finish the 2020 season. While on paper this team might take a step back next season, the Bulls have clearly established a winning culture under Coach Leipold and should be ready to play when they come to Lincoln this fall. This is a "how mature is NU" game and I actually think the off week between the Illinois game and this one could help NU. We saw how the team handled beating PSU this season with the Illinois major letdown the following week. NU needs to be ready to play this game as this Bulls team is a much better challenge for NU than most fans will realize. 

 

9/18 @ Oklahoma: Lol. Sooners open up on the road in New Orleans at Yulman Stadium against Tulane and then come home to beat up on Western Carolina in week 2. This team is humming into the offseason after throttling Florida in their NY6 game and having their QB Rattler finally settle in during the second half of the season. When you think about NU's lack of pass rush combined with OU's major defensive improvement under Grinch last season, this game has potential to get very ugly. If NU stays within 14 points here I'd be ecstatic and that's more of a reflection of where OU is than where NU is. I think OU could be a playoff team in 2021. 

 

9/25 @ Michigan State: Similar to Buffalo, this is another "how mature/tough mentally are we?" game. NU probably SHOULD win this game. But nothing over the last 3 years has given me confidence we will. Mel Tucker knows NU from his Colorado days and while the Spartans were up and down in his first year in East Lansing, they did beat both Michigan and Northwestern last season. Probably another swing game for the mood of the season, if NU wins it shows we are taking a step forward. If we come out sleepy here and get pumped, Frost's seat will legitimately get hot for the first time me thinks. 

 

10/2 Northwestern: One of the standard bearers in the Big Ten West. NU fans know this team has been a thorn in the Huskers side since joining the league. They are the antithesis of Nebraska- under talented but incredibly well prepared, coached, and mentally tough. Never beat themselves. As a result, they win games vs teams like NU who are mentally weak and commit sloppy penalties and plays. The Wildcats have added another QB transfer for 2021 and have won the Big Ten West 2 of the last 3 seasons. I expect them to be great yet again this season and this would be a big time win for Frost despite the lack of "brand" name associated with the Wildcats program. 

 

10/9 Michigan: I have no idea what to expect from Michigan in 2021. The OC Gattis has been a relative flop.. Harbaugh shifted his staff bringing in a new DC and sometimes you just need new blood and new voices to get guys motivated. The Wolverines need better QB play and everything else will seemingly fall into place, however I don't know if 2021 is the year they get it. Despite being anointed the savior last year in pre-season, I doubt they go with Joe Milton, who was benched by the end of this year in favor of Cade McNamara. It'll probably come down to McNamara vs the new kid on the block, 5* QB JJ McCarthy for the starting role. Again, nearly impossible to know what to expect from Michigan right now without knowing what the defense will look like or who will be the QB. 

 

10/16 @ Minnesota: There honestly may not be a team I want to beat more in 2021 than Minnesota. This team should not be beating NU on a regular basis, they just shouldn't. They are currently ahead of NU program development wise but I sort of feel like they're at their ceiling right now as evidenced by Fleck putting his name in the rung for Tennessee. NU should've won this game in 2020 but blew it with poorly timed penalties and mistakes (shocker). The zone run scheme gives us fits every year, although last year with our MUCH improved LB play we did better. Minnesota is like a lesser version of Iowa- meh QB play usually a good to great Big Ten running back that runs behind a big OL and one perimeter playmaker. Can NU finally find the recipe to shut this team down?

 

10/30 Purdue: After an idle week- NU hosts the Boilermakers for the first time since Frost's first year at NU. No idea what has happened to Jeff Brohm's club (lack of QB play most likely) but they are going to be on their third DC in 3 seasons and have QB issues of their own. NU pretty much dominated this game in 2020 and almost blew it at the end- I think Purdue may be the second worst team in the Big Ten in 2021. NU has to and should win this game at home. 

 

11/6 Ohio State: Similar to the OU commentary above, NU isn't winning this game. Keeping the final score within 2 touchdowns would be great. OSU is somehow getting MORE talented and while they have to break in a new QB does anyone have any doubt they'll successfully find another stud at that position? Their skill positions are better than NU's defenders across the board and while we made some plays on the lines last year, they have better linemen across the board than NU does too. Overall you just want to see what NU did in this year's game, play hard and make some plays when they present themselves. Who knows where the chips fall from there. 

 

11/13 Southeastern Louisiana: One of the best scheduling moves NU has made in years, the Lions come to Lincoln late in the year to break up the Big Ten grind. Nebraska needs to do what it did to Bethune Cookman and get up big and pull their starters at halftime at the latest. 

 

11/20 @ Wisconsin: Badgers were VERY inconsistent in 2020.. possibly regressing a little? Mertz was good then.. not so good. Obviously he was young and you'd expect him to make a jump this year but I'm very curious where the Badgers lie in 2021. They could be coming into this game as a serious playoff contender with a neutral site win over ND.. or they could have 4 losses. Neither would surprise me but one thing I think I know about this game- NU feels as though Wisconsin ducked us this year and will be ready to play this game. I actually think we finally get the Wisconsin monkey off our back and win this game. 

 

11/27 Iowa: So happy this game is back on Black Friday. Eichorst should be a curse word in the state of Nebraska. What an idiot. That being said- if we do beat Wisconsin like I have highlighted above, I don't know that we have the consistency to piece it together and beat Iowa the following week. NU has been extremely close against Iowa all 3 years Frost has been here. I want to win this game BADLY. But I'll believe it when I see it that we actually get the W. The Hawkeyes return Spencer Petras who NU was able to harass fairly successfully in this year's game. We know what the Hawkeyes will bring to this game- they're a better version of Minnesota. Big OL, one perimeter skill guy with a good to great RB. Likely a fringe top 25 team, Iowa will be ready for this game (they always are). The question is can NU finally fight back and beat these guys?

 

 

Overall Thoughts: It's a very challenging schedule for a variety of reasons. Lots of mental "gut-check" moments early in the season that will determine how the second half plays out. I think playing week 0 and getting the "extra" off week could be a sneaky advantage for this team, so long as we get the W over the Illini in that game. NU really needs to win a game it isn't supposed to this year in order to make that "jump", the closest thing to a "big" win we have in Frosts tenure is... Michigan State 2018 in the snow? But even then that MSU team wasn't great. How we respond to what will likely be big loses to OU and OSU will show me a lot about this team. The last 5 games of the year after the idle week NU NEEDS to go at least 3-2. SELA is an automatic win- meaning they'd split games v Purdue, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa. That would be a major jump forward for this team and likely put us into a bowl game, which is quite frankly a must in 2021 if Frost is going to continue this slow build with everyone on board. I'm not making win/loss predictions in this thread but right now I'd mark 9 of the 12 games on this as "toss ups" and 2 "sure losses" against OSU/OU and 1 "sure win". That means its likely going to come down to our mental toughness and ability to win close games, which if you follow NU football you know likely means bad things for NU. Hopefully this year's team is finally the team that gets over the hump and starts winning these close games and turning the tide. 

 

Good stuff, I agree with a lot you said. My biggest disagreement is NW - yeah they are incredibly well coached, and they will always have a good defense. But I see their 2021 team as eerily similar to their 2019 team. They lost all of their impact defenders except Brandon Joseph and Chris Bergin. They'll still be good, but not top-5. Ramsey dragged their offense to a respectable level, but he was much more proven and much more mobile than Hilinski is. I said it before last year and Chiaokhiao-Bowman stepped up to prove me wrong, but they again look like the worst WR corps in the conference. And we should know what that looks like. They always play tough and will steal a few games, but they need to replace just about everything and I don't see the personnel to get that done this year. They're always a team you can lose to, but they will be much worse this year.

 

EDIT: To illustrate my point on their offense:

Leaving:

• All passing production 
• Their 2nd (RB), 3rd (QB), 4th (RB), and 6th (WR) leading rushers
  • Return 2 freshman backs who ran all over Illinois and got carries in other games,, which gave them enough to be the 1st (333 yards) and 4th (209 yards) rushers. So returning 542/~1,400 yards rushing.
• The top 4 receivers, which means the leading returning receiver by catches is Porter the RB (9/57). By yardage it's Kirtz, a WR (6/67).

 

They've proven me wrong before, but that cupboard is bare. 

[Cdog923]

I see 2 wins. Maybe 3, depending on injuries. 

[seaofred92]

29 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Good stuff, I agree with a lot you said. My biggest disagreement is NW - yeah they are incredibly well coached, and they will always have a good defense. But I see their 2021 team as eerily similar to their 2019 team. They lost all of their impact defenders except Brandon Joseph and Chris Bergin. They'll still be good, but not top-5. Ramsey dragged their offense to a respectable level, but he was much more proven and much more mobile than Hilinski is. I said it before last year and Chiaokhiao-Bowman stepped up to prove me wrong, but they again look like the worst WR corps in the conference. And we should know what that looks like. They always play tough and will steal a few games, but they need to replace just about everything and I don't see the personnel to get that done this year. They're always a team you can lose to, but they will be much worse this year.

 

EDIT: To illustrate my point on their offense:

Leaving:

• All passing production 
• Their 2nd (RB), 3rd (QB), 4th (RB), and 6th (WR) leading rushers
  • Return 2 freshman backs who ran all over Illinois and got carries in other games,, which gave them enough to be the 1st (333 yards) and 4th (209 yards) rushers. So returning 542/~1,400 yards rushing.
• The top 4 receivers, which means the leading returning receiver by catches is Porter the RB (9/57). By yardage it's Kirtz, a WR (6/67).

 

They've proven me wrong before, but that cupboard is bare. 

Yeah I totally understand what you're saying and where you're coming from. I would consider Pat Fitz an elite HC though and I've just seen us with much better teams and personnel be in dog fights and lose games to NW. I will never ever be confident about beating them even if we ever get to OSU level (which will likely never happen). They just find a way to muck things up and make it ugly and we're so mentally fragile that its a matter of time before things crash and burn against them it seems like.

[B.B. Hemingway]

I'd have them at 5 or 6 wins. 

 

They'll beat SELA, and can get 4 or 5 more out of Illinois, NW, Mich. St., Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, and Buffalo.

[HANC]

51 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

Obviously we'll dive deeper into it as we get into the summer and closer to next season but here are my initial thoughts on 2021's schedule (2021 SP+ projected team ranking in parentheses):

 

8/28 @ Illinois (83) (Dublin): Game is currently scheduled to take place in Ireland but as we've figured out that is unlikely to take place. Most likely, this game will occur in Champagne. In the conference schedule release last week, this game was still listed as taking place on 8/28 and I believe the thought here is even if they move the game stateside it'll remain in week 0. This is a HUGE opportunity for NU as the other week 0 games are: UConn @ Fresno State, Hawaii @ UCLA, Southern Utah @ SJSU, and UTEP @ NMSU. NU's game should get a standalone window with PLENTY of eyeballs on it, and Illinois will be breaking in Brett Bielema as head coach. This is a flat out must win game for NU. A loss here could send things spiraling FAST. I fully expect us to be ready for this game and if we make a statement, roll that momentum into the coming weeks.  

 

9/11 Buffalo (77): The Bulls had a very strong season last year, led by stud running back Jaret Patterson who thankfully will be going to the NFL. In the past three seasons, the Bulls have won 2 division titles, have three bowl appearances with two wins, and a top 25 ranking to finish the 2020 season. While on paper this team might take a step back next season, the Bulls have clearly established a winning culture under Coach Leipold and should be ready to play when they come to Lincoln this fall. This is a "how mature is NU" game and I actually think the off week between the Illinois game and this one could help NU. We saw how the team handled beating PSU this season with the Illinois major letdown the following week. NU needs to be ready to play this game as this Bulls team is a much better challenge for NU than most fans will realize. 

 

9/18 @ Oklahoma (3): Lol. Sooners open up on the road in New Orleans at Yulman Stadium against Tulane and then come home to beat up on Western Carolina in week 2. This team is humming into the offseason after throttling Florida in their NY6 game and having their QB Rattler finally settle in during the second half of the season. When you think about NU's lack of pass rush combined with OU's major defensive improvement under Grinch last season, this game has potential to get very ugly. If NU stays within 14 points here I'd be ecstatic and that's more of a reflection of where OU is than where NU is. I think OU could be a playoff team in 2021. 

 

9/25 @ Michigan State (59): Similar to Buffalo, this is another "how mature/tough mentally are we?" game. NU probably SHOULD win this game. But nothing over the last 3 years has given me confidence we will. Mel Tucker knows NU from his Colorado days and while the Spartans were up and down in his first year in East Lansing, they did beat both Michigan and Northwestern last season. Probably another swing game for the mood of the season, if NU wins it shows we are taking a step forward. If we come out sleepy here and get pumped, Frost's seat will legitimately get hot for the first time me thinks. 

 

10/2 Northwestern (75): One of the standard bearers in the Big Ten West. NU fans know this team has been a thorn in the Huskers side since joining the league. They are the antithesis of Nebraska- under talented but incredibly well prepared, coached, and mentally tough. Never beat themselves. As a result, they win games vs teams like NU who are mentally weak and commit sloppy penalties and plays. The Wildcats have added another QB transfer for 2021 and have won the Big Ten West 2 of the last 3 seasons. I expect them to be great yet again this season and this would be a big time win for Frost despite the lack of "brand" name associated with the Wildcats program. 

 

10/9 Michigan (23): I have no idea what to expect from Michigan in 2021. The OC Gattis has been a relative flop.. Harbaugh shifted his staff bringing in a new DC and sometimes you just need new blood and new voices to get guys motivated. The Wolverines need better QB play and everything else will seemingly fall into place, however I don't know if 2021 is the year they get it. Despite being anointed the savior last year in pre-season, I doubt they go with Joe Milton, who was benched by the end of this year in favor of Cade McNamara. It'll probably come down to McNamara vs the new kid on the block, 5* QB JJ McCarthy for the starting role. Again, nearly impossible to know what to expect from Michigan right now without knowing what the defense will look like or who will be the QB. 

 

10/16 @ Minnesota (31): There honestly may not be a team I want to beat more in 2021 than Minnesota. This team should not be beating NU on a regular basis, they just shouldn't. They are currently ahead of NU program development wise but I sort of feel like they're at their ceiling right now as evidenced by Fleck putting his name in the rung for Tennessee. NU should've won this game in 2020 but blew it with poorly timed penalties and mistakes (shocker). The zone run scheme gives us fits every year, although last year with our MUCH improved LB play we did better. Minnesota is like a lesser version of Iowa- meh QB play usually a good to great Big Ten running back that runs behind a big OL and one perimeter playmaker. Can NU finally find the recipe to shut this team down?

 

10/30 Purdue (40): After an idle week- NU hosts the Boilermakers for the first time since Frost's first year at NU. No idea what has happened to Jeff Brohm's club (lack of QB play most likely) but they are going to be on their third DC in 3 seasons and have QB issues of their own. NU pretty much dominated this game in 2020 and almost blew it at the end- I think Purdue may be the second worst team in the Big Ten in 2021. NU has to and should win this game at home. 

 

11/6 Ohio State (4): Similar to the OU commentary above, NU isn't winning this game. Keeping the final score within 2 touchdowns would be great. OSU is somehow getting MORE talented and while they have to break in a new QB does anyone have any doubt they'll successfully find another stud at that position? Their skill positions are better than NU's defenders across the board and while we made some plays on the lines last year, they have better linemen across the board than NU does too. Overall you just want to see what NU did in this year's game, play hard and make some plays when they present themselves. Who knows where the chips fall from there. 

 

11/13 Southeastern Louisiana (NR): One of the best scheduling moves NU has made in years, the Lions come to Lincoln late in the year to break up the Big Ten grind. Nebraska needs to do what it did to Bethune Cookman and get up big and pull their starters at halftime at the latest. 

 

11/20 @ Wisconsin (9): Badgers were VERY inconsistent in 2020.. possibly regressing a little? Mertz was good then.. not so good. Obviously he was young and you'd expect him to make a jump this year but I'm very curious where the Badgers lie in 2021. They could be coming into this game as a serious playoff contender with a neutral site win over ND.. or they could have 4 losses. Neither would surprise me but one thing I think I know about this game- NU feels as though Wisconsin ducked us this year and will be ready to play this game. I actually think we finally get the Wisconsin monkey off our back and win this game. 

 

11/27 Iowa (16): So happy this game is back on Black Friday. Eichorst should be a curse word in the state of Nebraska. What an idiot. That being said- if we do beat Wisconsin like I have highlighted above, I don't know that we have the consistency to piece it together and beat Iowa the following week. NU has been extremely close against Iowa all 3 years Frost has been here. I want to win this game BADLY. But I'll believe it when I see it that we actually get the W. The Hawkeyes return Spencer Petras who NU was able to harass fairly successfully in this year's game. We know what the Hawkeyes will bring to this game- they're a better version of Minnesota. Big OL, one perimeter skill guy with a good to great RB. Likely a fringe top 25 team, Iowa will be ready for this game (they always are). The question is can NU finally fight back and beat these guys?

 

 

Overall Thoughts: It's a very challenging schedule for a variety of reasons. Lots of mental "gut-check" moments early in the season that will determine how the second half plays out. I think playing week 0 and getting the "extra" off week could be a sneaky advantage for this team, so long as we get the W over the Illini in that game. NU really needs to win a game it isn't supposed to this year in order to make that "jump", the closest thing to a "big" win we have in Frosts tenure is... Michigan State 2018 in the snow? But even then that MSU team wasn't great. How we respond to what will likely be big loses to OU and OSU will show me a lot about this team. The last 5 games of the year after the idle week NU NEEDS to go at least 3-2. SELA is an automatic win- meaning they'd split games v Purdue, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa. That would be a major jump forward for this team and likely put us into a bowl game, which is quite frankly a must in 2021 if Frost is going to continue this slow build with everyone on board. I'm not making win/loss predictions in this thread but right now I'd mark 9 of the 12 games on this as "toss ups" and 2 "sure losses" against OSU/OU and 1 "sure win". That means its likely going to come down to our mental toughness and ability to win close games, which if you follow NU football you know likely means bad things for NU. Hopefully this year's team is finally the team that gets over the hump and starts winning these close games and turning the tide. 

 

Difficulty of schedule by SP+ projected rating:

 

9/18 @ Oklahoma (3)

11/6 Ohio State (4) 

11/20 @ Wisconsin (9)

11/27 Iowa (16)

11/6 Michigan (23)

10/16 @ Minnesota (31)

10/30 Purdue (40)

9/25 @ Michigan State (59)

10/2 Northwestern (75)

9/11  Buffalo (77)

8/28 @ Illinois (83) (Dublin)

11/13 SELA (NR)

Pretty fair assessment in opinion.  I agree with Buffalo being very tough and a great coach, but it can't be overlooked that they lose almost their entire offense due to graduation, early declarations and portal.  

[J-MAGIC]

37 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Good stuff, I agree with a lot you said. My biggest disagreement is NW - yeah they are incredibly well coached, and they will always have a good defense. But I see their 2021 team as eerily similar to their 2019 team. They lost all of their impact defenders except Brandon Joseph and Chris Bergin. They'll still be good, but not top-5. Ramsey dragged their offense to a respectable level, but he was much more proven and much more mobile than Hilinski is. I said it before last year and Chiaokhiao-Bowman stepped up to prove me wrong, but they again look like the worst WR corps in the conference. And we should know what that looks like. They always play tough and will steal a few games, but they need to replace just about everything and I don't see the personnel to get that done this year. They're always a team you can lose to, but they will be much worse this year.

 

EDIT: To illustrate my point on their offense:

Leaving:

• All passing production 
• Their 2nd (RB), 3rd (QB), 4th (RB), and 6th (WR) leading rushers
  • Return 2 freshman backs who ran all over Illinois and got carries in other games,, which gave them enough to be the 1st (333 yards) and 4th (209 yards) rushers. So returning 542/~1,400 yards rushing.
• The top 4 receivers, which means the leading returning receiver by catches is Porter the RB (9/57). By yardage it's Kirtz, a WR (6/67).

 

They've proven me wrong before, but that cupboard is bare. 

 

Hilinski was pretty good for SC as a freshman if I remember correctly before a weird year last season.

 

I think Buffalo and NW will probably outperform their preseason ranking because they always seem to. I also think last year was probably a blip for Michigan as they've consistently been a top-15ish team under Harbaugh and weren't really as bad as people have suggested last year.

 

Teams that could underperform, I could see Illinois going off a cliff because it seems as if Bielema likes to burn stuff down to the stump and start over wherever he goes. I also think OU is maybe just a top-10 team instead of a top-5 team; a lot of their good defensive games late in the season came against some pretty spotty B12 offenses and a Florida team starting a ton of backups. 

[Husker in WI]

27 minutes ago, J-MAGIC said:

 

Hilinski was pretty good for SC as a freshman if I remember correctly before a weird year last season.

He was, I just think most of NW's offensive success last year had to do with Ramsey's mobility - not necessarily running, but extending plays. I don't think Hilinski has that same skill set though, and I don't think their run game is ready to carry them yet. But they are always tough.

[Hilltop]

I think there is quite a bit of accurate information with a pretty negative undertone in the original post.  It is a tough schedule but I see no reason Nebraska wins less than 6 games in 2021 and will probably win 7-8 and maybe 9 if things really come together by the end of the year.  If the over/under comes out at anything less than 6.5 I would be very surprised.  

 

Illinois - W          Getting them early is huge.  The first game for a new staff gives Nebraska a huge edge here.

Buffalo - W         Two huge factors here.  We get a bye week to prepare and the game will be played in front of fans in memorial stadium.  

Ok - L                   Nebraska will travel well but we just aren't ready for this level of competition.

Mich State - W   Bad offense vs our developing defense..  and MS lost several key pieces on defense.  We win fairly easily.  

NW -  W               NW was #1 in returning production in 2020.  Many of those guys are gone.  This is a serious reloading year. 

Michigan -  ?      We get Michigan at home.  If their rookie 5 star QB lives up to expectations, they will be very tough to beat.  If not, this is a winnable game.

Minnesota - ?     As bad as Nebraska fans want to see this as a W it will be a tough game at Minn.  They return several key pieces and will be a good team.

Purdue - W         Plain and simple, on paper this is a game we should win.  Nothing special to see on that Purdue roster.

Ohio State - L    Our best chance here is to hope for a blizzard to keep it a low scoring, anything can happen type of game.

SE L - W             This is not a good team.

Wisconsin - ?    I believe this will be one of the best Wisconsin teams we have seen.  In Camp Randall, its pretty tough to picture a win unless we have really improved.

Iowa - ?              Iowa loses several key players and we get them at home, on the day we should be playing them for eternity.  I like our chances for a Win.

 

My optimistic take is we go 8-4 and win our bowl game to finish 9-4 on the season.    

[seaofred92]

24 minutes ago, Hilltop said:

I think there is quite a bit of accurate information with a pretty negative undertone in the original post.  It is a tough schedule but I see no reason Nebraska wins less than 6 games in 2021 and will probably win 7-8 and maybe 9 if things really come together by the end of the year.  If the over/under comes out at anything less than 6.5 I would be very surprised.  

 

Illinois - W          Getting them early is huge.  The first game for a new staff gives Nebraska a huge edge here.

Buffalo - W         Two huge factors here.  We get a bye week to prepare and the game will be played in front of fans in memorial stadium.  

Ok - L                   Nebraska will travel well but we just aren't ready for this level of competition.

Mich State - W   Bad offense vs our developing defense..  and MS lost several key pieces on defense.  We win fairly easily.  

NW -  W               NW was #1 in returning production in 2020.  Many of those guys are gone.  This is a serious reloading year. 

Michigan -  ?      We get Michigan at home.  If their rookie 5 star QB lives up to expectations, they will be very tough to beat.  If not, this is a winnable game.

Minnesota - ?     As bad as Nebraska fans want to see this as a W it will be a tough game at Minn.  They return several key pieces and will be a good team.

Purdue - W         Plain and simple, on paper this is a game we should win.  Nothing special to see on that Purdue roster.

Ohio State - L    Our best chance here is to hope for a blizzard to keep it a low scoring, anything can happen type of game.

SE L - W             This is not a good team.

Wisconsin - ?    I believe this will be one of the best Wisconsin teams we have seen.  In Camp Randall, its pretty tough to picture a win unless we have really improved.

Iowa - ?              Iowa loses several key players and we get them at home, on the day we should be playing them for eternity.  I like our chances for a Win.

 

My optimistic take is we go 8-4 and win our bowl game to finish 9-4 on the season.    

I want to be as optimistic as this, I really do, but the last few years have made me very hesitant to predict a string of W's. NU has won 4 out of 5 games one time at any point on their schedule since 2017 (2018 we won 4 of 5 against MN, BCU, @ OSU, IL, MSU) and before that we did it once under Riley in 2016 when we started 7-0 and then 2014 under Pelini in his final season when we started 5-0. So not saying it can't happen, I just think it would be a pretty big step for NU to take to take care of business in 4 out of 5 when we haven't really done it consistently in a long time. Especially when one of those games is against NW. I'd be ecstatic at 8-4. I just think 6-6 is a more realistic goal and if we hit 6 wins it'll be a success as we'll get to play in a bowl for the first time since the Music City Bowl against TN.

[Xmas32]

Appreciate the work @seaofred92

 

I'm just having a lot of difficulty getting to more than 6 wins based on what I've seen so far.  I really wish Kevin Marks from Buffalo had elected to transfer.  He's going to be a load and I don't expect to much of a drop off from Patterson.  I think NU gets wins from:

 

Illinois

Buffalo (how Lance Leipold hasn't gotten a better job is absolutely beyond me)

Michigan State

NW

1 of Minnesota/Purdue/Iowa/Wisconsin

SE LA

 

Max wins for me would be 8 with NU getting a W over Minnesota and upsetting either Iowa or Michigan.  Hard to see a path to a win over Wisconsin, especially on the road.

 

Bowl game/winning season is absolutely critical.

[JJ Husker]

Good rundown @seaofred92

Can't say I disagree with much of anything. Maybe the pulling of starters by halftime of the SEL game   Of course that is how it SHOULD go, but I'll believe it when I see this team actually put together a dominate game against a lesser opponent and not shoot themselves in the foot.

 

I see;

3 wins, 2 losses and 7 tossups. Expecting 3-4 to 5-2 on the tossups gives us a floor of 6-6, ceiling of 8-4 with 7-5 likely.

 

6 or fewer wins is not acceptable.

7-8 wins is the bare minimum to begin thinking we're trending up.

9-10 wins and we are definitely headed in the right direction.

[seaofred92]

20 hours ago, JJ Husker said:

Good rundown @seaofred92

Can't say I disagree with much of anything. Maybe the pulling of starters by halftime of the SEL game   Of course that is how it SHOULD go, but I'll believe it when I see this team actually put together a dominate game against a lesser opponent and not shoot themselves in the foot.

 

I see;

3 wins, 2 losses and 7 tossups. Expecting 3-4 to 5-2 on the tossups gives us a floor of 6-6, ceiling of 8-4 with 7-5 likely.

 

6 or fewer wins is not acceptable.

7-8 wins is the bare minimum to begin thinking we're trending up.

9-10 wins and we are definitely headed in the right direction.

 

 

1. Appreciate the kind words

 

2. I disagree with the bolded. We haven't won 6 games in a season since the 2017 season. How is 6 wins a failure? From a pure numbers/statistics standpoint a large majority of our games are tossups. Our over/under on the year will probably be in the ball park of 5.5-6.5 when Vegas comes out with these numbers. I absolutely think 6-6 shows we're trending up. Even assuming wins over Illinois, Buffalo, and SELA, that means we'd get 3 wins against the following group: @ Michigan St, Purdue, NW, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Wisconsin, and Iowa (Assuming losses to OSU and OU are 99.9% likely). Then get to a bowl game and maybe get a win. 7 wins would have me ecstatic. NU SP+ preseason rating is 30, we play 5 teams that are ahead of us in SP+. Minnesota is 31. So lets just say we win the games we're "supposed" to win (which has been a struggle for NU for forever) and lose the games we're "supposed" to lose. That's 7-5. And because we're @ MN and they're 1 spot behind us, you can make the case we'll be dogs in that game. Which would be 6-6. I don't think 6 or 7 wins is a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination- I actually would see that as a major step forward for the program to get back to a bowl game and be playing meaningful games in November. 

[JJ Husker]

2 hours ago, seaofred92 said:

 

1. Appreciate the kind words

 

2. I disagree with the bolded. We haven't won 6 games in a season since the 2017 season. How is 6 wins a failure? From a pure numbers/statistics standpoint a large majority of our games are tossups. Our over/under on the year will probably be in the ball park of 5.5-6.5 when Vegas comes out with these numbers. I absolutely think 6-6 shows we're trending up. Even assuming wins over Illinois, Buffalo, and SELA, that means we'd get 3 wins against the following group: @ Michigan St, Purdue, NW, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Wisconsin, and Iowa (Assuming losses to OSU and OU are 99.9% likely). Then get to a bowl game and maybe get a win. 7 wins would have me ecstatic. NU SP+ preseason rating is 30, we play 5 teams that are ahead of us in SP+. Minnesota is 31. So lets just say we win the games we're "supposed" to win (which has been a struggle for NU for forever) and lose the games we're "supposed" to lose. That's 7-5. And because we're @ MN and they're 1 spot behind us, you can make the case we'll be dogs in that game. Which would be 6-6. I don't think 6 or 7 wins is a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination- I actually would see that as a major step forward for the program to get back to a bowl game and be playing meaningful games in November. 

 

To be fair, the bolded you disagreed with is just my opinion. Others are free to feel how they wish. I understand that just getting over the hump to a bowl game may be looked at as progress to some. I'm just tired (oh so tired) of this program finding new bottoms and then digging further. And hey, I'm not saying anyone should be fired or massive changes made. I'm just saying 6 wins does not exhibit the required progress to me.

[seaofred92]

39 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

 

To be fair, the bolded you disagreed with is just my opinion. Others are free to feel how they wish. I understand that just getting over the hump to a bowl game may be looked at as progress to some. I'm just tired (oh so tired) of this program finding new bottoms and then digging further. And hey, I'm not saying anyone should be fired or massive changes made. I'm just saying 6 wins does not exhibit the required progress to me.

Yup totally. To each their own.