Nebraska and the Big Ten: A decade of struggle for stability

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

To determine if a class is successful, add up the number of 4* and 5* players. To compete, half your class needs to be in this category. Nebraska realistically can't do that, but they can shoot for 8 of them a season, which is closer to 40% of their class. If Nebraska recruits that many, the class is good. If they recruit less, the class is bad. It's that simple. 

That's one aspect.  Other aspects:

 

a). How big is the class?  For years, we weren't filling out the class.  So, we weren't cycling through as many scholarship players as someone who fills out every class, plus weeds out the under performers to fill them up with scholarship players again the next class.

 

b).  You need to develop and keep the top of the class.  Riley's 2017 class is a prime example of this.  On paper, it was a great class.  However, when almost all of the top of the class is gone within a year, the class might as well have been ranked 78th.

 

Both of those items have improved over Frost's tenure, but still needs to improve more.

[hunter49]

did we recruit any 5 star kids in the pat 3 years?  Ohio State is loaded with 4 and 5 star kids!

[BigRedBuster]

2 minutes ago, hunter49 said:

did we recruit any 5 star kids in the pat 3 years?  Ohio State is loaded with 4 and 5 star kids!

No, but Corcoran, Betts, Fidone and Robinson are very close.

[FrantzHardySwag]

Clemson Football Recruiting

2009: 36th

2010: 27th

2011: 10th

2012: 20th

2013: 15th

2014 16th

2015 ----First CFB Playoff appearance 

 

Average Rank leading up to CFB playoff was 21st for the 6 classes prior and 18th for the 5 classes prior. Nebraska recruiting ranking average under Frost = 20th. Show you can compete for conference titles with classes in the 20-25 range, and the top 10 classes will come. 

[BigRedBuster]

1 minute ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Clemson Football Recruiting

2009: 36th

2010: 27th

2011: 10th

2012: 20th

2013: 15th

2014 16th

2015 ----First CFB Playoff appearance 

 

Average Rank leading up to CFB playoff was 21st for the 6 classes prior and 18th for the 5 classes prior. Nebraska recruiting ranking average under Frost = 20th. Show you can compete for conference titles with classes in the 20-25 range, and the top 10 classes will come. 

I agree with this.  We have been recruiting well enough to compete for division championships and be at least competitive in the CCG.  Once that happens, the recruiting will improve from where we are at.  If we can get to a point where we win the CCG, it will improve even more.

[Undone]

As far as the Win/Loss columns are concerned, Frost's program needs to take small steps. But I feel like a lot of these discussions are had more in the context of jumping ahead all the way to where we're winning the West and then giving Ohio State a battle in a conference title game or something.

 

The "next step" for me would be defined as finally not f****** losing to Iowa. We need a season where we beat Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, & Iowa. Add in another win from one of the easy(ier) cross-divisional games plus two wins from the cream puff non-cons and that's a 7-5 season.

 

People can claim we can easily do that this season but Frost sure isn't making it look like it's an easy step to take.

 

Hopefully nobody says we need significantly better recruiting to accomplish the above. We need better coaching on fundamentals, special teams, and just a better process of mental preparation & motivation.

[jaws]

7 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Clemson Football Recruiting

2009: 36th

2010: 27th

2011: 10th

2012: 20th

2013: 15th

2014 16th

2015 ----First CFB Playoff appearance 

 

Average Rank leading up to CFB playoff was 21st for the 6 classes prior and 18th for the 5 classes prior. Nebraska recruiting ranking average under Frost = 20th. Show you can compete for conference titles with classes in the 20-25 range, and the top 10 classes will come. 

 

Now go find a Deshaun Watson level player at QB and transform your program. Sounds easy enough.

[Undone]

1 minute ago, jaws said:

 

Now go find a Deshaun Watson level player at QB and transform your program. Sounds easy enough.

 

Heh, and Brent Venables as your DC...

[hunter49]

2 minutes ago, jaws said:

 

Now go find a Deshaun Watson level player at QB and transform your program. Sounds easy enough.

Dabo is a helluva coach and has some great assistants.

[bugeater17]

16 minutes ago, jaws said:

 

Now go find a Deshaun Watson level player at QB and transform your program. Sounds easy enough.

Dylan Riola is probably our best bet.

 

I think Frost is building a solid foundation with area or under recruited kids in this class. He's had some splash/high 4 star kids in previous classes. This class is in an interesting spot with the number of freshman and rs freshman on the roster. 

[Cdog923]

4 minutes ago, bugeater17 said:

Dylan Riola is probably our best bet.

 

I think Frost is building a solid foundation with area or under recruited kids in this class. He's had some splash/high 4 star kids in previous classes. This class is in an interesting spot with the number of freshman and rs freshman on the roster. 

 

If they get Raiola, all bets are off. But, the way that recruiting is trending, that's going to be an immense long shot, even with the built-in advantage we have. 

[FrantzHardySwag]

33 minutes ago, jaws said:

 

Now go find a Deshaun Watson level player at QB and transform your program. Sounds easy enough.

Thats my point entirely...They were 22-4 the 2 years prior to Watson. If you win games with 20ish ranked classes, the good players will follow. 

[Dr. Strangelove]

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

That's one aspect.  Other aspects:

 

a). How big is the class?  For years, we weren't filling out the class.  So, we weren't cycling through as many scholarship players as someone who fills out every class, plus weeds out the under performers to fill them up with scholarship players again the next class.

 

b).  You need to develop and keep the top of the class.  Riley's 2017 class is a prime example of this.  On paper, it was a great class.  However, when almost all of the top of the class is gone within a year, the class might as well have been ranked 78th.

 

Both of those items have improved over Frost's tenure, but still needs to improve more.

Size of the class matters as far as increasing probabilities: a 3* player has about the same probability of being an All-Conference player, so recruiting more of them in a class helps increase the odds that one turns into a good player. 

 

Developing and keeping talent was a huge issue under Riley, but I would push back on the thought that Frost is better. He's had quite a few blue chip transfers and his own issues developing talent, at least on offense. 

 

The Blue Chip ratio is what matters for recruiting, at least if Nebraska wants a punchers chance at winning the conference. Recruit at least eight 4* players per class and retain them to constitute a successful class. Less than that is a recruiting failure. It's that simple. Nebraska recruited 4 such players last year and 0 so far this year, so the talent is trending down. 

[Jason Sitoke]

13 hours ago, teachercd said:

It is like this, think back to HS

 

Think of the top 5 hottest girls in your school...Now think of the top 50 hottest girls in your school.  Big drop off...NU has to start getting recruits close to the top 5 instead of the 37th.

Does anyone ever tell you that you spend a lot of time thinking about high school girls?  Occupational hazard?

[Dr. Strangelove]

11 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Thats my point entirely...They we're 22-4 the 2 years prior to Watson. If you win games with 20ish ranked classes, the good players will follow. 

I would say the recipe for them is easier: they have plenty of talent to recruit locally and play in a conference that isn't that difficult. Aside from FSU at the time (and recruiting in general being less top heavy even 5 years ago) allowed them to be successful. 

 

Now the gap between the top 3 or 4 classes and the rest of CFB is getting wider seemingly each year.