Nebraska and the Big Ten: A decade of struggle for stability

[VectorVictor]

21 hours ago, knapplc said:

 

We're recruiting at a top-20/top-30 level. We're getting top-50 results. That's a huge problem. 

 

We have a mental check-out game every season, and in bad seasons two or three. That's been going on for 20 years through five different regimes.

 

The decline coincides with the time Dr. Jack Stark left the program during the Solich run. Correlation isn't causation, but save for half of the 2009 team, have we had a mentally tough program and resilient program since Solich's last year? 

 

Maybe we have and I'm just not remembering...?

[knapplc]

1 minute ago, VectorVictor said:

 

The decline coincides with the time Dr. Jack Stark left the program during the Solich run. Correlation isn't causation, but save for half of the 2009 team, have we had a mentally tough program since Solich's last year? 

 

No, we haven't. And we've even heard from other teams that they knew they could just "punch us in the mouth" and we'd fold. 

 

I have no idea how much Dr. Stark's departure plays a role in that. I don't know how they replaced him. I know we have a sports psychology department, and that a lot of the volleyball players cite it as a reason for their success at the banquets. 

[VectorVictor]

15 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

No, we haven't. And we've even heard from other teams that they knew they could just "punch us in the mouth" and we'd fold. 

 

I have no idea how much Dr. Stark's departure plays a role in that. I don't know how they replaced him. I know we have a sports psychology department, and that a lot of the volleyball players cite it as a reason for their success at the banquets. 

 

Right--we used to be able to take a punch and give one back. But that's been absent for some time--it's part of the "Nebraska Toughness" people simply think was borne from tough practices, stadium stairs, and relentlessness. But all of that toughness was fostered in conjunction with Sports Psychology programs that Dr. Osborne himself felt were valuable and necessary (well before other schools started utilizing them).

 

And I've posted before that Sports Psychology for DONU isn't pulling its weight, and it's plainly evident to see by the mental errors/gaffes and lack of mental fortitude on display by our kids. I know some posters get butthurt or defensive about people mentioning Sports Psychology and mental health being a necessary part of the program, but like it or not, it's missing. 

As for current state, I would suggest that just because it works for one group of kids, doesn't mean it's going to work carte blanche--psychology isn't a one-size-fits-all kind of thing. Different kids, different problems, different techniques. And IIRC, they replaced Dr. Stark with a new group of Sports Psychologists because others under him left when Dr. Stark left. 

 

On more than one occasion, Dr. Stark has made mention he's willing to come back and help out DONU. Not sure why we don't take him up on his offer... 

 

EDIT: Dr. Stark came on board in 1993, left before the 2004 season began. Found online on his bio. He's also been helping Creighton Basketball, NASCAR teams, and Fortune 500 execs in recent years. 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Ahhh...and I forgot to go as far back as the 2018 class.

 

So, he's recruited 27 4* recruits out of 95 total.  That's 28.5% are 4*.  8 have transferred or not made it to campus.

 

Then add in the 4 or 5 transfers that were 4* players out of HS.

 

That's still better than Riley.

Did he?

 

In 2015, Nebraska recruited four 4* players, two left the program early. One of which was a player involved in the program for a few weeks.

 

2016: Nebraska recruited five 4* players, one left the program early.

 

2017 was the outlier. 4 out of the 5 4* players left early, although two of them were under Frost, which is par for the course in a coaching transition. 

 

If and when Frost is fired, his previous recruiting class is likely to feature as many departures as Riley's. I don't think there's a significant advantage for Frost as far as talent retention, both have suffered from it. 

[Nebraska55fan]

4 hours ago, VectorVictor said:

 

The decline coincides with the time Dr. Jack Stark left the program during the Solich run. Correlation isn't causation, but save for half of the 2009 team, have we had a mentally tough program and resilient program since Solich's last year? 

 

Maybe we have and I'm just not remembering...?

 NU used to come into games, stoic and extremely confident. Other teams would fight for a quarter or two and then often times look for a soft place to land like my friend boxer friend Mouse Strauss used to say. 

 

That may have had to do with NUs relentless physicality AND contributing style of play. 

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Did he?

 

In 2015, Nebraska recruited four 4* players, two left the program early. One of which was a player involved in the program for a few weeks.

 

2016: Nebraska recruited five 4* players, one left the program early.

 

2017 was the outlier. 4 out of the 5 4* players left early, although two of them were under Frost, which is par for the course in a coaching transition. 

 

If and when Frost is fired, his previous recruiting class is likely to feature as many departures as Riley's. I don't think there's a significant advantage for Frost as far as talent retention, both have suffered from it. 

Frost has had 29% of his 4 stars leave. If 2017 was effected by the coaching change and you leave it out, Riley had 33% leave. If you include 2017, 50% left.  If you don’t count the two that left when Frost was hired, 35% left under Riley. So, yeah. Especially when you consider one of the 8 that left under Frost still played most of his career here as was a major contributor. 

[UniversalMartin]

Literally just want a team that does the following:

1)Don't put yourself in holes that you cannot feasible dig out of.

2) Respond to adversity.

3) Don't have games where you look like you don't even remotely belong on the field.

 

If we go 6-6 with that, I will be fine, cause that is a sign of potential 

[funhusker]

17 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I tried to explain this previously, but comparing recruiting is a bit of a fools errand because it's relative. Recruiting better than Dabo on average is great, but does it matter?   

 

The talent distribution at the time was less top heavy. For example, in 2014 the #20 class in the country (Michigan) recruited one 5* and eight 4* players. 9 Blue Chip players in total. The #12 class that same year, Miami, recruited one 5* and seven 4* players for 8 blue chip players. The classes were very similar in terms of talent. Clemson had the #16 class and recruited ten 4* players, so most of those classes were similar in terms of talent. 

 

Fast forward and the problem is that the talent is not being distributed as equally. The top teams are hoarding more and more talent.  The #20 team goes from recruiting 9 blue chip players to recruiting 4. The #12 team goes from recruiting 8 blue chip players to 14. 

 

The distribution of talent is becoming more and more consolidated, the gaps between Nebraska and Wake Forest narrows while the gaps between Nebraska and Ohio State grows.

 

Dabo was able to win because he found a few key players, but played in a time where it was easier to win with less talent. He had about the same talent as teams ranked in the top 10, so by being a good coach and having good players at key positions, he won! 

 

It is much, much more difficult now. It isn't easy, and Nebraska needs baby steps and a good identity to win. 

I think expanding the playoff to 12 will help combat this.  Kids will see more opportunities than just OU, Alabama, OSU, Clemson, etc.

[ZRod]

19 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Does anyone ever tell you that you spend a lot of time thinking about high school girls?  Occupational hazard?

Jeffery needs to tone it down a bit

[Treand3]

2 hours ago, funhusker said:

I think expanding the playoff to 12 will help combat this.  Kids will see more opportunities than just OU, Alabama, OSU, Clemson, etc.

It's a reason Dabo is against expansion.