** 2021 Previews: CBS Sports Big Ten Expert Picks **

[Saunders]

Quote

 

Big Ten expert picks 2021: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

After a delayed start to play one year ago, the Big Ten is back in the swing of things entering 2021 with some intriguing storylines leading the way. Ohio State is again expected to dominate conference play, but Penn State is looking for a bounce back campaign in the East, while Wisconsin aims to again control the West. There's as much heat as ever on Michigan to live up to the lofty expectations of Wolverines fans, or else Year 7 may be the last for Jim Harbaugh.

It should come as no surprise that the Buckeyes enter as -220 favorites to win the Big Ten, according to Caesars Sportsbook, with no other team a close second. The Nittany Lions and Badgers are both next in line at +900. Illinois is projected to finish last in the league, but with new coach Bret Bielema leading the program, perhaps he and the Illini find a comfort level with one another that leads to immediate success.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-expert-picks-2021-most-overrated-and-underrated-teams-projected-order-of-finish-bold-predictions/

 

 

 

 

[Hilltop]

You can tell the majority of this group of "experts" pays a lot more attention to the East.  Anyone picking NW to finish 2nd in the west just isn't paying attention and Illinois at 3rd??  With a brand new everything?  Dude is just trying to generate clicks.  I think I would line up with Chip's predictions more than the rest.  

[Saunders]

1 hour ago, Hilltop said:

You can tell the majority of this group of "experts" pays a lot more attention to the East.  Anyone picking NW to finish 2nd in the west just isn't paying attention and Illinois at 3rd??  With a brand new everything?  Dude is just trying to generate clicks.  I think I would line up with Chip's predictions more than the rest.  

I listened to Tom's reason on the CBS podcast, and the other guys dragged him for it. Basically, he believes in Fitz' magic.

[Undone]

Picking who finishes in what place in the two divisions is one thing. Predicting final records is another.

 

Predicting Wisconsin to be 1st & Iowa to be second is a really safe one. But I think it'll be more of a mixing bowl where the 2nd - 4th place teams in the West probably have fairly similar records when it's all said done - not where the 2nd place team goes 10-2 like the guy in the other similar thread said about Iowa.

[teachercd]

Badgers could very well have 3 losses by the end of business day Oct 2nd.

[GSG]

4 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Badgers could very well have 3 losses by the end of business day Oct 2nd.

 

You wouldn't guess that from their 247 guy. He made it sound like 12-0, legit chance to beat tOSU for the title and make the playoffs

[Husker in WI]

18 minutes ago, GSG said:

 

You wouldn't guess that from their 247 guy. He made it sound like 12-0, legit chance to beat tOSU for the title and make the playoffs

 

A lot of their fanbase is really convinced that the real Mertz is the 20/21, 5 TD one from their first game. He and their receivers were knicked up the rest of the year, so I think he's better than he looked at the end of the year. And he's young so will still improve. But I don't think he's that good - that was a terrible Illinois defense that we just handed the ball to. 20/21 is crazy, but if you replace him with most other Big Ten QBs in that game most of them probably go 17-18 for 21. Chryst had a phenomenal gameplan, Mertz had couple very good throws and a lot of wide open throws to backs and the TE. 

 

The other major Badger fan misjudgment IMO is the receivers. Davis and Pryor have made some excellent individual plays and have some experience, but I hear some fans saying they're one of the better WR corps in the conference which is absurd. They don't have a single 100 yard game between them, and honestly have each kinda stagnated. Davis went from 26/418/5 as a freshman to 40/418/5 (more catches, less efficient) to 30/250/1 and then missed most of last year. Pryor's career has been 13/179/1, 23/273/3, 23/278/0, and then not much last year. The #3 is Jack Dunn, who is the classic "gritty" player who you would like to see succeed but is just not that good. 

 

The defense will be top 5. The OL will always be good, Mertz is almost certainly going to be better, the TE is a stud and I think the have 2 good backs this year (Berger/Mellusi) instead of half of one (Berger) last year. But the receivers are not scaring anyone, Mertz isn't Russell Wilson yet at least, and I don't think either of the backs are capable of carrying the entire offense like some of the guys they've had in the past. But the 247 guy is not alone in thinking this could be the year they dethrone OSU breaking in a new QB.

[teachercd]

1 hour ago, GSG said:

 

You wouldn't guess that from their 247 guy. He made it sound like 12-0, legit chance to beat tOSU for the title and make the playoffs

Yeah I am not seeing it.

[Dogs In A Pile]

3 hours ago, Hilltop said:

Anyone picking NW to finish 2nd in the west just isn't paying attention and Illinois at 3rd??  With a brand new everything?  Dude is just trying to generate clicks.  I think I would line up with Chip's predictions more than the rest.  

 

I don't know where NW will finish but they do have a very favorable schedule with MSU, Mich & Rut as their crossover games and Indiana St., Duke & Ohio as their OOC games. Even if they aren't very good this year with Fitzgerald as coach and that schedule they could be in the upper have of the division.

[GSG]

1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

 

A lot of their fanbase is really convinced that the real Mertz is the 20/21, 5 TD one from their first game. He and their receivers were knicked up the rest of the year, so I think he's better than he looked at the end of the year. And he's young so will still improve. But I don't think he's that good - that was a terrible Illinois defense that we just handed the ball to. 20/21 is crazy, but if you replace him with most other Big Ten QBs in that game most of them probably go 17-18 for 21. Chryst had a phenomenal gameplan, Mertz had couple very good throws and a lot of wide open throws to backs and the TE. 

 

The other major Badger fan misjudgment IMO is the receivers. Davis and Pryor have made some excellent individual plays and have some experience, but I hear some fans saying they're one of the better WR corps in the conference which is absurd. They don't have a single 100 yard game between them, and honestly have each kinda stagnated. Davis went from 26/418/5 as a freshman to 40/418/5 (more catches, less efficient) to 30/250/1 and then missed most of last year. Pryor's career has been 13/179/1, 23/273/3, 23/278/0, and then not much last year. The #3 is Jack Dunn, who is the classic "gritty" player who you would like to see succeed but is just not that good. 

 

The defense will be top 5. The OL will always be good, Mertz is almost certainly going to be better, the TE is a stud and I think the have 2 good backs this year (Berger/Mellusi) instead of half of one (Berger) last year. But the receivers are not scaring anyone, Mertz isn't Russell Wilson yet at least, and I don't think either of the backs are capable of carrying the entire offense like some of the guys they've had in the past. But the 247 guy is not alone in thinking this could be the year they dethrone OSU breaking in a new QB.

 

Well you covered pretty much everything they talked about. The basic thought process seemed to be if a player is returning, they're a million times better; if a player isn't returning, their replacement is a million times better. Best WR corps at Wisconsin, EVER. Best QB, EVER (minus that Wilson guy). Top 10 defense, EASY. 

[caveman99]

2 hours ago, Saunders said:

I listened to Tom's reason on the CBS podcast, and the other guys dragged him for it. Basically, he believes in Fitz' magic.

What was Dennis Dodd's reasoning for picking ILL as 3rd, that is worse IMO, I mean NW has at least been pretty successful the past few years. 

[Husker in WI]

2 minutes ago, GSG said:

 

Well you covered pretty much everything they talked about. The basic thought process seemed to be if a player is returning, they're a million times better; if a player isn't returning, their replacement is a million times better. Best WR corps at Wisconsin, EVER. Best QB, EVER (minus that Wilson guy). Top 10 defense, EASY. 

 

Which I think every fanbase is prone to, but yeah it's been pretty annoying. I do see it with their defense unfortunately, but for the offense I think they're overestimating what they've got. Same with Iowa really - IIRC going into last year they had an article unironically comparing Petras to John Elway. It was their sportsnation site so not the same as an actual writer saying that, but we are not the only fanbase that wildly overestimates the team we follow. This year they are very much ignoring how talented Smith-Marsette was (still think he was a great athlete but meh receiver), and how easily they'll replace him and their #2.

 

The fun part is when a team's fans are right about guys, we just haven't had much of that recently. Like I was skeptical of Ibrahim taking over as the #1 back for Minnesota, and their fans were right he's a stud. But every fanbase has their share of "I'm telling you dude, Tanner Lee is could be a first round pick!" type stuff. I am more guilty than most.

[Hilltop]

37 minutes ago, caveman99 said:

What was Dennis Dodd's reasoning for picking ILL as 3rd, that is worse IMO, I mean NW has at least been pretty successful the past few years. 

Guessing it is because they have a lot of returning seniors- I believe 17.

[Husker in WI]

11 minutes ago, Hilltop said:

Guessing it is because they have a lot of returning seniors- I believe 17.

 

Yeah, that feels like looking at the mess that is the middle/bottom of the Big Ten West and just picking a stat you think is correlated to success. Problem is, even things that take returning production heavily into account (like SP+) thinks Illinois is going to be pretty bad.

[Hilltop]

1 minute ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Yeah, that feels like looking at the mess that is the middle/bottom of the Big Ten West and just picking a stat you think is correlated to success. Problem is, even things that take returning production heavily into account (like SP+) thinks Illinois is going to be pretty bad.

Oh, I agree.  It was the only possible reason I could come up with other than the guy has pics of Bielema on his ceiling.