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Locks of the Weak


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13 hours ago, admo said:

ME:

 

parlay.jpg

 

Also ME:

4 bad weeks in a row (2 teamers, sometimes 3)

 

Tempting and fun, but so hard to parlay

Ha. I hit a 4 teamer on NHL yesterday. Was getting frustrated so I picked 4 dogs and put a couple bucks on it. Figured if I’m gonna lose might as well have good odds in the process. So……the first 3 hit and I’m ahead 1-0 in the 4th game, have a decent cashout option so I take it. 4th team goes ahead and wins so I left about 20% of my payout on the table :facepalm: I’m telling ya I’m cursed. But at least I didn’t lose.

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8 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

Ha. I hit a 4 teamer on NHL yesterday. Was getting frustrated so I picked 4 dogs and put a couple bucks on it. Figured if I’m gonna lose might as well have good odds in the process. So……the first 3 hit and I’m ahead 1-0 in the 4th game, have a decent cashout option so I take it. 4th team goes ahead and wins so I left about 20% of my payout on the table :facepalm: I’m telling ya I’m cursed. But at least I didn’t lose.

Good lord, NHL?

 

I love that you have a problem!  Hahaha

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8 hours ago, JJ Husker said:

Ha. I hit a 4 teamer on NHL yesterday. Was getting frustrated so I picked 4 dogs and put a couple bucks on it. Figured if I’m gonna lose might as well have good odds in the process. So……the first 3 hit and I’m ahead 1-0 in the 4th game, have a decent cashout option so I take it. 4th team goes ahead and wins so I left about 20% of my payout on the table :facepalm: I’m telling ya I’m cursed. But at least I didn’t lose.

That's awesome!  I love parlays (5 bucks max tho)

 

Been years since I hit on 3 teams or 4

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8 hours ago, teachercd said:

Good lord, NHL?

 

I love that you have a problem!  Hahaha

I put my last 5 on Washington (college hoops) -23.  With 3 minutes left in game, that super small cali team went on 12-0 run.  Huskies won by 22.  I know right?!

 

This was years ago and I stopped everything for 5 years because of it lol.  It's amazing

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13 hours ago, teachercd said:

Good lord, NHL?

 

I love that you have a problem!  Hahaha

 

Reminds me of a joke a friend and I only need the punch line to:

 

A guy calls his bookie (probably @teachercd but we'll just say a guy):

 

How'd I do on my NFL bets?

 

You were 0-10.

 

Ouch.  How'd I do on my MLB bets?

 

Well .... you were 0-10 there as well.

 

You're kidding me?!?!?!?  How'd I do on my NBA bets?

 

Sorry to say ... you're 0-10 there also.

 

Holy s#!t!!!!  How can I get some of that back?

 

Well ... there's a full slate of NHL games tonight.

 

Hockey?!?!??!  I don't know anything about hockey!!!!

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On 10/26/2021 at 1:15 AM, Mavric said:

 

Reminds me of a joke a friend and I only need the punch line to:

 

A guy calls his bookie (probably @teachercd but we'll just say a guy):

 

How'd I do on my NFL bets?

 

You were 0-10.

 

Ouch.  How'd I do on my MLB bets?

 

Well .... you were 0-10 there as well.

 

You're kidding me?!?!?!?  How'd I do on my NBA bets?

 

Sorry to say ... you're 0-10 there also.

 

Holy s#!t!!!!  How can I get some of that back?

 

Well ... there's a full slate of NHL games tonight.

 

Hockey?!?!??!  I don't know anything about hockey!!!!

I feel like hockey is really similar to betting baseball.  If you stay away from ever betting a -200 favorite and blindly bet any underdog that is priced above +175 you'll come out of the season doing not too bad.  Those big favorites absolutely kill you when they lose.

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1 hour ago, Xmas32 said:

I feel like hockey is really similar to betting baseball.  If you stay away from ever betting a -200 favorite and blindly bet any underdog that is priced above +175 you'll come out of the season doing not too bad.  Those big favorites absolutely kill you when they lose.

IMO baseball and hockey are nothing alike. Maybe just because I win at hockey and lose (lost) my a$$ on baseball. I will not bet on baseball. Period.

 

Baseball is basically a bunch of teams that are not far removed from .500 records. I have no feel for when any team is going to win or lose. In hockey there are good teams and bad teams and the style mismatches are more obvious. But yeah, it is a tough way to make money when you have to give -145 to -200 odds and foolish to start giving points. I try to stick with sub -175 odds or, if they’re higher and I really like them, I’ll parlay 2 or 3 together. Prop bets are notoriously bad bets but I’ve made a ton of money on player’s shots, goals, and points. I also like win/total combinations. Good way to tilt the odds in your favor.

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17 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

IMO baseball and hockey are nothing alike. Maybe just because I win at hockey and lose (lost) my a$$ on baseball. I will not bet on baseball. Period.

 

Baseball is basically a bunch of teams that are not far removed from .500 records. I have no feel for when any team is going to win or lose. In hockey there are good teams and bad teams and the style mismatches are more obvious. But yeah, it is a tough way to make money when you have to give -145 to -200 odds and foolish to start giving points. I try to stick with sub -175 odds or, if they’re higher and I really like them, I’ll parlay 2 or 3 together. Prop bets are notoriously bad bets but I’ve made a ton of money on player’s shots, goals, and points. I also like win/total combinations. Good way to tilt the odds in your favor.

With the way baseball is setup and how tanking is prevalent you're going to have a few dreadful teams.  The catch is, to avoid betting those dreadful teams laying high prices, similar to hockey.  They are some maxims you'll see people follow like not betting on Sundays or Thursdays because those are usually 'getaway' days for teams. 

 

I will gently disagree with you on the prop bet thing.  The main reason why it's beatable is because books have to put together so many prop lines and it's difficult to have each line be razor sharp.  Prop betting can be very lucrative but it's tricky for a few reasons.  One, the lines move quickly so when you see a line that is +EV you need to move quickly.  Two, you gotta have a ton of outs because books will limit you if you show a propensity to win consistently.  I've been pleasantly surprised on the prop market for the NFL this year so far as I've generally been able to get down between $300-$500/prop when I want to bet something without getting push back.  I'm not sure if the hockey market has that same level of liquidity.  Three, you also need to have a ton of outs to line shop and avoid taking bad numbers.

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