*** 2021 Game 7 "Expert" Picks: Michigan at Nebraska ***

[Saunders]

2021 Game 7 “Expert” Picks: Michigan (-3) @ Nebraska

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CollegeFootballNews.com

Why Michigan Will Win

It’s a rock-solid team that maintains a nice even keel. If that sounds boring, it’s because it’s been very, very business-like to the point of the Michigan faithful not believing that it could all look this easy. There was a little bit of sweating in the second half of the 20-13 win over Rutgers, but not really. And why? The lines are rock solid and the team isn’t screwing up. The offensive front has been a rock for a running game that predictably struggled against the Scarlet Knights and Wisconsin, but has been solid overall. There aren’t any plays allowed in the backfield – Michigan leads the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed, and it’s second in sacks given up – and everything else flows from there. There’s no real pressure on QB Cade McNamara and the backfield, there hasn’t been any need to force anything, and because of it, there’s been just one turnover in the first five games. Nebraska doesn’t do enough to force takeaways. On the flip side of the Michigan line, the Husker front five has allowed the most sacks per game of anyone in the Big Ten. But …

Why Nebraska  Will Win

The sack thing is a bit of a technicality because of Adrian Martinez’s mobility. He’s been brilliant so far – he’ll throw something different at the Michigan D. The Wolverines haven’t faced any dangerous dual-threat playmaking quarterbacks, and now they have to deal with a veteran who looks settled into the gig. He’s hitting 67% of his passes with over 200 yards in every game – averaging close to ten yards per throw – to go along with five rushing scores in his last two games. Thanks to Martinez, the Huskers are great on third downs, they’re dominating the time of possession battle, and the offense is averaging over 500 yards per game. It might have taken a while, but the O is starting to work. However …

What’s Going To Happen

It takes 500 yards for the Huskers to win. The Huskers aren’t getting 500 yards against Michigan. Nebraska is 7-1 over the last three seasons when it comes up with 500 yards, and it’s 4-14 – including 0-3 this year – when it doesn’t get there. Michigan is allowing fewer than 300 yards per game and hasn’t allowed 500 to anyone but Ohio State since 2015. It won’t be anything spectacular, but again, that’s Michigan. It’ll be efficient, it won’t screw up, and the steady drip will soon add up to 200 yards passing and rushing – and a 6-0 start.

Michigan 26 - Nebraska 20

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ESPN FPI

Michigan - 63%

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DRatings

Michigan 28 - Nebraska 24

Michigan - 63%

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ESPN Bill Connelly SP+

Michigan 27 - Nebraska 24

Michigan - 58%

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Sporting News

This is a trap game for the Wolverines. Michigan hasn't visited Memorial Stadium since a loss in 2012, and the Huskers have dominated in their home games. These are the two best rushing offenses in the Big Ten, too. There will be some anxious moments for Michigan, but they come through in the second half.

Michigan 31 - Nebraska 24

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Big Red Wrap-Up

Mike’l Severe: Michigan 24 - Nebraska 20

Jay Moore: Nebraska 24 - Michigan 20

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CBS Sports

Dennis Dodd: N

Tom Fornelli: N

Chip Patterson: N

Barrett Sallee: M

David Cobb: M

Shehan Jeyarajah: M

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The Athletic
Dan Santaromita: M

Jason Starrett: M

Chris Vannini: M

Ari Wasserman: M

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Dallas Morning News

Scott Bell: M

Chuck Carlton: N

Corby Davidson: M

Josephy Hoyt: M

Ric Renner: M

Selby Lopez: M

Kevin Sherrington: M

Brett Vito: M

Newy Scruggs: M

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247 Sports
Hummer: Michigan -3; I just think Michigan is better. The Huskers have quietly played excellent football since their loss to Illinois. But Nebraska is a run-first offense, and Michigan has defended the run as well as anyone early this year. I also just trust the Wolverine offense a bit more right now. This is a close game, but I like Michigan to cover. … Michigan 27 - Nebraska 21.

Crawford: Michigan -3; It would not surprise me at all if the Huskers hand the Wolverines their first loss on Saturday night in a sold-out setting. However, Michigan is the better team at the line of scrimmage and I do think Jim Harbaugh's group will be able to control that aspect of the matchup enough to prevail. ... Michigan 20 - Nebraska 16.

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AP - Ralph D Russo
Cornhuskers might be sneaky good, though they have lost 14 straight against ranked teams dating to 2016.

Nebraska 24 - Michigan 21, Upset Special

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Wolverines Wire

Trent Knoop: I think this game ultimately comes down to the Nebraska offense against the Michigan defense. Adrian Martinez does a great job with the read-option attack, but if the Michigan edge defenders can stop him, then the Wolverines should win this game fairly easy. Cade McNamara has done a great job managing the the Michigan offense, he has yet to throw an interception, and he will need to continue doing just that in a hostile environment at night. I’ll take the Wolverines to win their first game ever in Lincoln. Michigan 31 - Nebraska 17

Isaiah Hole: Nebraska is much better than its record, having lost all three games by just one score. The offense is high-powered and the defense is stellar. The biggest issue for the Huskers is that they make mistakes and are undisciplined, essentially beating themselves. This is a home game, at night. All these things favor Nebraska. Except, it hasn’t (theoretically) seen a defense like Michigan’s and they have the worst offensive line in the country. For me, the big question is how the Wolverine defense will handle Adrian Martinez, as I think the offense will be able to score, given what it was able to do vs. Wisconsin. I think this will be a tough game, but Michigan pulls away on the road. Michigan 42 - Nebraska 24

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OWH - Sam McKewon

Saturday Night Special. Unless Nebraska is playing Ohio State inside Memorial Stadium, it’s pretty tough in that environment with big wins over Michigan State, Miami and, yes, Michigan in 2012. That Wolverine team isn’t as good as this one, but this Husker D is much stingier. Scott Frost nabs the big one.

Nebraska 24 - Michigan 21

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The Athletic - Stewart Mandel
Nebraska is 3-3, but we know its defense is very good. And with a few personnel changes last week, the offense exploded last week against Northwestern. The time is ripe for Scott Frost to finally win a big game … I just don’t trust that the Huskers can beat a top-10 team with their penchant for self-inflicted wounds.
Michigan 27 - Nebraska 23

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CBS Sports Six Pack Picks

I'm not sold on Michigan yet. The unbeaten Wolverines climbed into the AP Top 10 after starting the season unranked, but they're simply too one-dimensional on offense. And that dimension has faded in recent weeks. The Wolverines rushed for 1,051 yards at 7.15 yards per carry in their first three games, but that average dropped to only 2.73 yards per carry against Rutgers and Wisconsin. 

Now, they're going on the road for a second consecutive week to face Nebraska. The Cornhuskers might not be Wisconsin defensively, but they profile similarly to Rutgers. Plus, with Michigan presenting little threat in the passing game, the Huskers can load the box. Maybe Nebraska doesn't pull off the upset, but I have this one being close, so I'll gladly take the 3.5 points.

Nebraska 24 - Michigan 23

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More to come...

[Saunders]

 

[Undone]

So I believe I'm showing that the spread as of yesterday (10/05) around noon was Michigan -2.5.

 

I think that says a ton about what we did Saturday night and where the experts think we're at. To me, Michigan is a better team than a lot of people think - but the obvious thing that casts a doubt is how they only put up 20 points against Rutgers.

 

If we win, I really believe it'll be because our defense does what it did against Michigan State.

[Saunders]

23 minutes ago, Undone said:

So I believe I'm showing that the spread as of yesterday (10/05) around noon was Michigan -2.5.

 

I think that says a ton about what we did Saturday night and where the experts think we're at. To me, Michigan is a better team than a lot of people think - but the obvious thing that casts a doubt is how they only put up 20 points against Rutgers.

 

If we win, I really believe it'll be because our defense does what it did against Michigan State.

It started at -1, then was up to -3 at some places. I normally just grab it from whatever preview I start with first.

[Undone]

1 minute ago, Saunders said:

It started at -1, then was up to -3 at some places. I normally just grab it from whatever preview I start with first.

 

Nice, that's good info - I didn't know it opened at -1. I could be off, but I think the opening line is the best thing to go off of in terms of an actual predicter of who is favored to win.

 

That's kind of amazing.

[Nebraska55fan]

I don't gamble on football- what are the analytics on moves?

 

I get it, they want as much action on each side as possible to siphon off as much juice as possible and not be caught holding the bag. 

 

Has there been any analytics on how accurate big money moves have been? Not aggregated moves by small time bettors. Its amazing how close the linemakers can be on this stuff- later in the season. 

[teachercd]

I would imagine the betting public is and will continue to pound Michigan.  Makes sense if you are not a NU fan.

 

Top 10 team that is playing well vs a team that loves to find ways to lose games.

1 minute ago, Nebraska55fan said:

I don't gamble on football- what are the analytics on moves?

 

I get it, they want as much action on each side as possible to siphon off as much juice as possible and not be caught holding the bag. 

 

Has there been any analytics on how accurate big money moves have been? Not aggregated moves by small time bettors. Its amazing how close the linemakers can be on this stuff- later in the season. 

There is but I forget which site shows that cash amount % and the pick % for each team.  If I can find it I will link it

[Nebraska55fan]

5 minutes ago, teachercd said:

 

There is but I forget which site shows that cash amount % and the pick % for each team.  If I can find it I will link it

 

I know they do, will rephrase my question. 

My question is- has there been any historical analytics that show the historical relationship between winning bets and very high stakes gambles that have moved the line?

[teachercd]

9 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

 

I know they do, will rephrase my question. 

My question is- has there been any historical analytics that show the historical relationship between winning bets and very high stakes gambles that have moved the line?

Oh, not that I know of but I am sure there is.

 

 

[Nebraska55fan]

2 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Oh, not that I know of but I am sure there is.

 

 

I realize fans are fans and will bet with their hearts and degenrate gamblers are just that. 

 

What would be interesting is the real pros with big money- how accurate have they been. 

[suh_fan93]

Michigan's quality win so far was against a Wiscy (1-3) team that is obviously down this year.  The weak prior they beat Rutgers (3-2) by a whopping 7 points.  I like our d's chances against their o and as far as 'rankings' Michigan is too high at #9.

 

The really interesting battle to say the least is going to be watching Prochazka primarily (and Corcoran) go up against Aidan Hutchinson who also lines up on the edge on the other side sometimes as well.  

[Mavric]

 

[teachercd]

5 minutes ago, suh_fan93 said:

Michigan's quality win so far was against a Wiscy (1-3) team that is obviously down this year.  The weak prior they beat Rutgers (3-2) by a whopping 7 points.  I like out d's chances against their o and as far as 'rankings' Michigan is too high at #9.

 

The really interesting battle to say the least is going to be watching Prochazka primarily (and Corcoran) go up against Aidan Hutchinson who also lines up on the edge on the other side sometimes as well.  

And Verdral is the only running QB they played

 

Here are the stats for that game.  Surprised me a bit

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=michigan+vs+rutgers+football+2021&oq=michigan+vs+rutgers+football+20&aqs=chrome.0.0i512j69i57j0i512l7j0i22i30.11566j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&safe=active&ssui=on#sie=m;/g/11rfd796k0;6;/m/012hfxch;ms;fp;1;;

[Hilltop]

8 minutes ago, teachercd said:

And Verdral is the only running QB they played

 

Here are the stats for that game.  Surprised me a bit

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=michigan+vs+rutgers+football+2021&oq=michigan+vs+rutgers+football+20&aqs=chrome.0.0i512j69i57j0i512l7j0i22i30.11566j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&safe=active&ssui=on#sie=m;/g/11rfd796k0;6;/m/012hfxch;ms;fp;1;;

Rutgers defense looked great until they played Ohio State.  They beat Michigan on paper in most areas. 

 

I can envision us holding Michigan fairly low as well.  Michigan put up points last week but a lot of that was Wisconsin's QB going out and their backup handing Michigan the ball with short fields.  Once the tide turned, Wisconsin's defense lost a lot of energy.  

 

I think we can put up quite a few yards, for sure more than Rutgers, but finishing drives is going to be a real challenge Saturday night.    

[Dogs In A Pile]

Currently at Mich -3.5. I thought it opened at -4.5