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Michigan: What did we learn


ndobney

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2 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

Obscure statistical rankings may make some feel better about their thoughts on their favorite teams. However Wins Losses- Points for Points Against and Turnovers are what matters most. 

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/27

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/28

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/29/p2

NU is 81st In Turnover Margin 

 

Middle Tennessee State must be dominating if they are 4th in the country in turnover margin.  

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12 minutes ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said:

Middle Tennessee State must be dominating if they are 4th in the country in turnover margin.  

The top 5 seem to be doing pretty well despite issues with other parts of their teams. Got to like Iowa, Oregon and Cincy in the top 5. Kent is 3-1 also:

 

1 iowa.svgIowa 6 4 16 20 3 2 5 15 2.50
2 oregon.svgOregon 5 4 9 13 1 1 2 11 2.20
3 kent-st.svgKent St. 6 4 12 16 2 2 4 12 2.00
4 middle-tenn.svgMiddle Tenn. 6 10 8 18 3 4 7 11 1.83
5 cincinnati.svgCincinnati
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12 minutes ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said:

Cincinnati and Oregon are playing great football for sure. Iowa is probably winning due to a lot of luck on turnovers, one QB injury, and just playing bad teams. I doubt their luck holds up all year even though they still wont play anyone good. 

Exactly my point. 

Iowa is winning because they are a turnover generating machine. Offensively they don't turn it over hence their TO margin being tops in the country.  Pretty good D- not so much on the O. 

 

Like you- I think Iowa is over rated. Would love to see Iowa come in here undefeated and have their luck finally run out. Unfortunately their strengths play really well into our weaknesses. 

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3 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

Exactly my point. 

Iowa is winning because they are a turnover generating machine. Offensively they don't turn it over hence their TO margin being tops in the country.  Pretty good D- not so much on the O. 

 

Like you- I think Iowa is over rated. Would love to see Iowa come in here undefeated and have their luck finally run out. Unfortunately their strengths play really well into our weaknesses. 

I think its a good point and definitely proved out with Iowa, but I still think there is some validity to adding in more context through advanced stats. 

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1 hour ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Yes.  As long as you have no follow up questions.

 

"Surely you children are aware of your Brahman heritage?"

 

"As long as you have absolutely no follow-up questions - Yes. Yes, we are. Fully. We have to go now."

 

*Door Closes*

 

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46 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

Unfortunately their strengths play really well into our weaknesses. 

 

I think there's a good argument that it might be the other way around though.

 

Iowa, like Wisconsin, isn't built to play from behind. They're not built for shootouts like the second half of the Michigan game. So if you pair them up against a dynamic offense that has the big play threat (which we finally have now, similar to the 2017 UCF team) they get off schedule.

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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Does anyone understand the numbers?

 

 

I see Nebraska with a good number I say "yes".

 

I see them with a bad number I say "no".

2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Does anyone understand the numbers?

 

 

I see Nebraska with a good number I say "yes".

 

I see them with a bad number I say "no".

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2 hours ago, Nebraska55fan said:

Obscure statistical rankings may make some feel better about their thoughts on their favorite teams. However Wins Losses- Points for Points Against and Turnovers are what matters most. 

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/27

48th in Offense

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/28

22nd in Defense

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/29/p2

NU is 81st In Turnover Margin 

 

I love statistics in management.  However, they can be overly relied upon. That can happen easily when someone relies on one specific statistic and manages around it.  You have to look at a wide range of statistics and also look at the big picture.  

 

The statistics provided earlier are valuable and so are the ones you provide.  Another one is relative strength schedule the programs have experienced that you're trying to compare.  

 

Obviously, wins and losses are the most important.  But, just using that one, you would look and think we are still the same sucky team we were 4-5 years ago.  All the other statistics (even the one's you provided) show improvement.  Then, compare our stats with a team that has played a relatively easy schedule, and you start getting a much bigger picture of where the program is.

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54 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

I think there's a good argument that it might be the other way around though.

 

Iowa, like Wisconsin, isn't built to play from behind. They're not built for shootouts like the second half of the Michigan game. So if you pair them up against a dynamic offense that has the big play threat (which we finally have now, similar to the 2017 UCF team) they get off schedule.

 I certainly hope you're correct. WHen I see Iowa at #1 for TO margin and NU at 81. Special Teams- Iowa usually in the top 10- NU at 100+. That concerns me. At the end of the day- we need to be comfortably ahead- they seem to have that Sooner Magic thing going on when it comes to how things turn out late in the game. 

 

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47 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

 I certainly hope you're correct. WHen I see Iowa at #1 for TO margin and NU at 81. Special Teams- Iowa usually in the top 10- NU at 100+. That concerns me. At the end of the day- we need to be comfortably ahead- they seem to have that Sooner Magic thing going on when it comes to how things turn out late in the game. 

 

 

I definitely hear you on turnover margin. Penn State threw some horrendous passes in that game (four of them) that skews the figure quite a bit after just 6 games played for them.

 

The other thing is that Iowa's QB gets off target quite a bit. He has a 58.5% career completion percentage (which in my opinion is bad for a pro style guy). Our strength is against the run; make him throw the ball to win the game.

 

The other thing for our team is, we have got to freaking get push when we're up in the 4th quarter so that we can just hand the ball off to Yant or Johnson to ice the game. I cannot overstate how big this issue is.

 

Easy to fixate on the bad punt against MSU, or Martinez's fumble against Michigan - but if we had a decent offensive line that could do this, those two games would have been iced and over with the 'W.'

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4 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

 

Easy to fixate on the bad punt against MSU, or Martinez's fumble against Michigan - but if we had a decent offensive line that could do this, those two games would have been iced and over with the 'W.'

 

Our turnover and special teams issues are not a one game aberration. One might make a case for the aberrations are the games we have done ok in special teams and turnover margin. They seem to be improving, but the numbers are the numbers. 

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39 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

 

Our turnover and special teams issues are not a one game aberration. One might make a case for the aberrations are the games we have done ok in special teams and turnover margin. They seem to be improving, but the numbers are the numbers. 

 

Note that you switched topics on me there.

 

I wasn't talking about special teams at all, but rather finishing games out with power running in the fourth quarter. I've got a well-documented history here of pointing out our years-long problems on special teams.   :)

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5 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Note that you switched topics on me there.

 

I wasn't talking about special teams at all, but rather finishing games out with power running in the fourth quarter. I've got a well-documented history here of pointing out our years-long problems on special teams.   :)

You said this" Easy to fixate on the bad punt against MSU, or Martinez's fumble against Michigan -"

 

So I addressed that special teams and turnovers aren't a one game thing- recency bias. Not fixating on something that rarely happens. 

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