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Your 2022 Nebraska Cornhuskers


Mavric

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On 7/29/2022 at 8:44 PM, admo said:

Stop.

 

Most teams play "bend don't break" on defense.  Not just Nebraska.

 

It goes from the 20 yard line to the defense' 25.  And that is where the rubber meets the road.

 

Did we move the ball between the 25's?  Yes

 

Did the opponent's defensive game plan necessitate that?  Yes 

 

Do stats show we were effective on offense between the 20's?  Yes

 

Does that mean we were super awesome on offense between the 20's,... or does it indicate that our opponent's defense was playing safe until you get around field goal range?  Yes

 

And then, .... the defense will tighten up to make you score touchdowns.

 

One would look at things both ways, and realize moving the ball from 25-25 is allowed across the board.  

 

It does not indicate you have a super efficient offense in between those lines.  

 

How does one not understand that? 

 

What you do from the 25 to the goal line is where you find truth in your offense.  Touchdowns, then FG's, then missed opportunities for any kind of points.

 

I suspect you're singling out my posts because it irks you that I've predicted we'll struggle again this year. I don't know how many times I need to say this: I want to be pleasantly surprised and be wrong so bad.   :)

 

But, back to the discussion at hand. Go to this link that runningblind posted a few pages back that shows red zone efficiency when both TD's and FG's are considered:

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

Search for 'Iowa' and then search for 'Nebraska.' Where does Iowa rank on the list?

 

Next question: What was Iowa's record last year, and what was ours?

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2 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

I suspect you're singling out my posts because it irks you that I've predicted we'll struggle again this year. I don't know how many times I need to say this: I want to be pleasantly surprised and be wrong so bad.   :)

 

But, back to the discussion at hand. Go to this link that runningblind posted a few pages back that shows red zone efficiency when both TD's and FG's are considered:

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

Search for 'Iowa' and then search for 'Nebraska.' Where does Iowa rank on the list?

 

Next question: What was Iowa's record last year, and what was ours?

 

Have I missed the part where ANYONE has said we don't need to be better on special teams?

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3 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Have I missed the part where ANYONE has said we don't need to be better on special teams?

 

No.

 

I'm back to arguing again that the focus on Lubick and the play calling having been atrocious is just not true.

 

Now one extra thing that I didn't put into that post above: Our red zone scoring efficiency would have gone up if Frost would have chosen to kick a couple field goals from inside the 5 instead of going for it on 4th & goal.

 

I think those decisions were made last year though based on the assumption that we just couldn't win some of those games without the TD. Which I understand - but just to be pedantic, it lowers the metric. I'm thinking about the Michigan & Minnesota games at minimum.

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4 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

No.

 

I'm back to arguing again that the focus on Lubick and the play calling having been atrocious is just not true.

 

Now one extra thing that I didn't put into that post above: Our red zone scoring efficiency would have gone up if Frost would have chosen to kick a couple field goals from inside the 5 instead of going for it on 4th & goal.

 

I think those decisions were made last year though based on the assumption that we just couldn't win some of those games without the TD. Which I understand - but just to be pedantic, it lowers the metric. I'm thinking about the Michigan & Minnesota games at minimum.

There were a number of times last year when we were in range and chose to not try to kick it.  Our kicker sucked and the staff knew it and didn't trust him to make them.  Make those kicks (that normal college kickers make) and the percentage of scoring in the red zone goes up.

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2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

There were a number of times last year when we were in range and chose to not try to kick it.  Our kicker sucked and the staff knew it and didn't trust him to make them.  Make those kicks (that normal college kickers make) and the percentage of scoring in the red zone goes up.

 

Thank you.

 

Another one in the data column for "Scheme & play calling was overblown as being a primary problem."

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Just going to say it straight out for the permanent record again:

 

If we play good special teams (which includes field goal kicking), the offensive penalties are reduced, and if Thompson is even just one tick better than Martinez I think we win 7 games and quite possibly 8 in the regular season.

 

Bringing in Bill Busch was the best move of the offseason, IMO. Whipple is an upgrade over Lubick. And having Joseph on staff helps as well.

There we go. There's nothing to conflate or be confused about with this post at all.

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32 minutes ago, Undone said:

No.

 

I'm back to arguing again that the focus on Lubick and the play calling having been atrocious is just not true.

 

Now one extra thing that I didn't put into that post above: Our red zone scoring efficiency would have gone up if Frost would have chosen to kick a couple field goals from inside the 5 instead of going for it on 4th & goal.

 

I think those decisions were made last year though based on the assumption that we just couldn't win some of those games without the TD. Which I understand - but just to be pedantic, it lowers the metric. I'm thinking about the Michigan & Minnesota games at minimum.


Totally agree here.  Not sure why people insist on showing stats that include Special Teams then insist that they show the offense was bad.

 

I was curious about that first (?) drive against Michigan last year.  We went for it on fourth & goal at the one and didn't get it.  Ordinarily I'd be a big fan on that so I don't have any complaints.  But I was curious if that decision was based on being aggressive or not wanting to try a field goal.  Those three points would have been handy later.

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1 hour ago, Mavric said:

I was curious about that first (?) drive against Michigan last year.  We went for it on fourth & goal at the one and didn't get it.  Ordinarily I'd be a big fan on that so I don't have any complaints.  But I was curious if that decision was based on being aggressive or not wanting to try a field goal.  Those three points would have been handy later.

 

And I'm not even attempting to call Frost out on that one. I'm not saying "what an idiot for not just kicking the field goal!" That's unintelligent hindsight analysis.

 

I'm just talking about how by definition it of course lowers the red zone scoring efficiency stats when you factor in the high percentage chance that your kicker will make what amounts to a 20 yard field goal in those scenarios.

 

I would however go on to argue that we probably felt like we had to go for the TD in these scenarios due to:

 

-Constantly playing terrible special teams

-Constantly having unforced errors (penalties and turnovers) on offense

 

It's all connected. But none of it really had anything to do with scheme, the run/pass play calling ratio, or the play calling in general.

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Just now, Undone said:

 

And I'm not even attempting to call Frost out on that one. I'm not saying "what an idiot for not just kicking the field goal!" That's unintelligent hindsight analysis.

 

I'm just talking about how by definition it of course lowers the red zone scoring efficiency stats when you factor in the high percentage chance that your kicker will make what amounts to a 20 yard field goal in those scenarios.

 

I would however go on to argue that we probably felt like we had to go for the TD in these scenarios due to:

 

-Constantly playing terrible special teams

-Constantly having unforced errors (penalties and turnovers) on offense

 

It's all connected. But none of it really had anything to do with scheme, run/pass play calling mix, or the play calling in general.

 

No, I totally agree with you.  I was just pointing that out as an example of what you were talking about.  :thumbs

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42 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

And I'm not even attempting to call Frost out on that one. I'm not saying "what an idiot for not just kicking the field goal!" That's unintelligent hindsight analysis.

 

I'm just talking about how by definition it of course lowers the red zone scoring efficiency stats when you factor in the high percentage chance that your kicker will make what amounts to a 20 yard field goal in those scenarios.

 

I would however go on to argue that we probably felt like we had to go for the TD in these scenarios due to:

 

-Constantly playing terrible special teams

-Constantly having unforced errors (penalties and turnovers) on offense

 

It's all connected. But none of it really had anything to do with scheme, the run/pass play calling ratio, or the play calling in general.

I don't blame him.  If I'm a coach and I'm less than 5 yards from the goal line I'm going for it every time especially if my defense is any good.  if you don't get it you have a chance to force a safety and get the ball back.  If you can force a punt you will end up with good field position and have another crack at it.  Especially if you can't count on your kicker 

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