Farms Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, SouthLincoln Husker said: As much as I stuck up for Martinez, what he had between the ears was an issue that cost us some wins. Yea I'm hoping that's where Thompson is an upgrade over AM. I believe in regards to overall talent they are very similar but Adrian was 0-15 on last drives to tie or win the game. Woof... Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 39 minutes ago, Saunders said: Purdue - 56% I am floored at us having a > 50% win expectancy here. We were god awful the last 40 minutes of that game. Purdue had more first downs than us, had 0 turnovers to our 4 INTs, had less penalty yards, and almost double to time of possession. We out yarded them, but that was due to us going 94 yards down 11 with 2:00 left to make it a one score game. I assume yards/play is a big input into that calculation, which we won Neb 58 plays 399 yards 6.9 ypp Pur 86 plays 349 yards 4.1 ypp After going up 17-7 in the 2Q we averaged 2.2 yards per play with 3 INTs over our next 8 drives until the TD drive in garbage time 3 plays for 0 yards 3 plays for 9 yards 2 plays for -4 yards INT 3 plays for -10 yards 4 plays for 29 yards 3 plays for 2 yards 1 play for 0 yards INT 3 plays for 22 yards INT 2 Quote Link to comment
Husker in WI Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Red Five said: I am floored at us having a > 50% win expectancy here. We were god awful the last 40 minutes of that game. Purdue had more first downs than us, had 0 turnovers to our 4 INTs, had less penalty yards, and almost double to time of possession. We out yarded them, but that was due to us going 94 yards down 11 with 2:00 left to make it a one score game. After going up 17-7 in the 2Q we averaged 2 yards per play with 3 INTs over our next 8 drives until the TD drive in garbage time 3 plays for 0 yards 3 plays for 9 yards 2 plays for -4 yards INT 3 plays for -10 yards 4 plays for 29 yards 3 plays for 2 yards 1 play for 0 yards INT 3 plays for 22 yards INT It took every single one of those turnovers and a missed wide open receiver before the half though. The defense needed to do a better job getting off the field, but they averaged 4 yards per play. Over a season, 4.0 yards per play would be 129th (ahead of New Mexico at 3.9). Purdue got a lot of breaks from Martinez - that was his worst game by far in his career - and needed every last one. Quote Link to comment
seaofred92 Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 3 hours ago, knapplc said: One of the local scribes/radio guys (Sipple) just said he wouldn't be shocked to see the Huskers go 10-2 this season. I think I'd fall off my chair if we had double-digit wins, especially after losing the guys we lost from last year and the wholesale changes to the offensive staff. Can you link this? Not because I don’t believe you but because I’d love to hear/see this for myself hahah Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, seaofred92 said: Can you link this? Not because I don’t believe you but because I’d love to hear/see this for myself hahah I didn't hear it, but a friend tweeted about it. He quoted Sipple as saying, "I think they're close." Not sure if this morning's podcast is up yet, but it would be here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/early-break-93-7-the-ticket-kntk/id1114569714 1 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Husker in WI said: It took every single one of those turnovers and a missed wide open receiver before the half though. The defense needed to do a better job getting off the field, but they averaged 4 yards per play. Over a season, 4.0 yards per play would be 129th (ahead of New Mexico at 3.9). Purdue got a lot of breaks from Martinez - that was his worst game by far in his career - and needed every last one. Yes, AM was turrible that game. But does win probability not take into account turnovers? If I were to look at just a box score and see Team A had 4 turnovers and Team B had 0 turnovers I would assume that Team B wins > 95% of the time. 1 Quote Link to comment
Husker in WI Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Red Five said: Yes, AM was turrible that game. But does win probability not take into account turnovers? If I were to look at just a box score and see Team A had 4 turnovers and Team B had 0 turnovers I would assume that Team B wins > 95% of the time. I'm not sure what all it takes into account, but I assume turnovers are part of it - again just goes to show how many things we had to have go wrong though. a 4-0 turnover margin is obviously a massive factor in Purdue's favor. But even with that a 6.9 - 4.0 yards per play advantage made it a toss up. Over a season, 6.9 ypp would have been 5th - so it's basically an elite offense versus one of the very worst, but the elite one turns it over 4 times. Quote Link to comment
DefenderAO Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Saunders said: I'd love to see it... but man... I just don't. Between HCSF and each O and D lines...I definitely cannot see it. 1 Quote Link to comment
Loebarth Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, DefenderAO said: Between HCSF and each O and D lines...I definitely cannot see it. Not to mention also, Thompson reminds me a lot of AM... he throws into some very scary fronts. I agree with the O-line issues but the depth of our LB corp might mask some of the D-line depth issues. If the D-line finds a solid anchor at nose then I think it will be a pleasant surprise. IMO, when looking at the schedule I simply can't see how we don't win a minimum of 6 games and if we are 6-6 going into the bowls, we should be favored in the bowl game too. Gotta win the first one though. (My 6 wins) Northwestern North Dakota Georgia Southern Indiana Illinois Minnesota My toss ups: Rutgers (road) Purdue (also road) Wisconsin (at home) 1 Quote Link to comment
Toe Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 3 hours ago, BigRedBuster said: It's very understandable to be very skeptical. This team did so many things right last year....yet so many things wrong. I'd say that there's really only a couple things we did wrong last year, but those couple things were pretty holy f#&%ing s#!t wrong... 3 Quote Link to comment
Cdog923 Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 5 hours ago, knapplc said: One of the local scribes/radio guys (Sipple) just said he wouldn't be shocked to see the Huskers go 10-2 this season. I think I'd fall off my chair if we had double-digit wins, especially after losing the guys we lost from last year and the wholesale changes to the offensive staff. Classic Sipple. 1 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 Gotta get the OL better or it could be a long year Quote Key stat to know: When pressured in 2021, Martinez completed 49.6 percent of his 115 throws for 1,143 yards and 9.9 per attempt, with three touchdowns and four interceptions, according to Pro Football Focus. At Texas, Thompson was under pressure on 31.2 percent of his dropbacks and connected on 42.9 percent of 70 throws for 437 yards and 6.2 per attempt, with two touchdowns and five interceptions. Thompson generated 21 first downs to Martinez’s 51 while under pressure. 2 Quote Link to comment
Lorewarn Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 35 minutes ago, Red Five said: Gotta get the OL better or it could be a long year People happy to see us move on from Adrian and excited about Casey are in for a rude awakening if the line and skill positions aren't shored up around him. Adrian was a great player asked to do too much; Casey is a very similar type of quarterback. The biggest difference between AM and some of his more successful peers is that they only need to make 10 baller plays per game, while we relied on him needing to make 15. Usually he'd make 14. 6 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 Ouch Quote “There’s a lot of unraveling that’s taken place,” a Big Ten assistant coach said. “And then try to mend that together and piece it together with an entire new offensive staff. … I don’t know.” The same coach said he’s regularly impressed with Nebraska’s talent. “They’ve got some dudes,” he said. But the coach questions some of the moves made this offseason — including the hire of Whipple, who coached Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett at Pitt last season. Whipple resigned days before taking the Nebraska job in December. “If you’re a player, you’d have to think, ‘Why would Mark Whipple come to us after he just coached one of the best quarterbacks in the country?’ Just bizarre, to say the least. “That’s how I would describe everything that’s gone on there, just bizarre. You’ve got receivers that are leaving. You’ve got (a quarterback) that’s leaving. You’ve got coaches that are leaving.” The Huskers were perhaps not as close to a breakthrough last season as they wanted to believe, the coach said. “They will hang their hat on the fact that they lost all those games by single digits. That’s the culture: ‘Yeah, we were 3-9. Yeah, we were 1-8 (in the Big Ten). But we lost all those games by one score, and we’re right there.’ “You can make the argument that they’re a long ways from being there, just because of the little things.” 1 Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Red Five said: Ouch It's no fun to hear that from someone outside the program, but it's no different than what we've been saying here. Quote Link to comment
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