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Your Predictions For The West


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btw...thanks for reviving the thread. It's pretty interesting how bullish the national media was on Nebraska pre-season, how foolish we felt for that optimism just five days ago, and how quickly we're back to handicapping our chances to win the division. 

 

My prediction? A total clusterfugg of flawed teams beating each other up, with Purdue somehow emerging to win with a tie-breaker.

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26 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

My next door neighbor is a big sports buff. We meet on the street every day and talk sports. He came over for the 49ers game last night. He went to Illinois and I asked him what he thought about the Wisconsin game. He didn't even know Illinois had won.  I asked him how he could become so disengaged from Illinois football and he said "years and years of experience." 

That is funny!

 

They have done a bad job winning but because of that the student game day culture is not at all about the game.

 

The campus has a huge Greek life and they rent out the bars on game day, so they open up like 2 hours early for the houses that rent it out and they all party...then no one wants to leave to watch, what is usually, a bad team. 

 

And it is just far enough from Chicago that fans that live there are not making the drive. 

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8 hours ago, BoSolich said:

ur aware they lost to indiana?

 

i would say the west is completely up for grabs

 

Illinois loss to Indiana isn't as important as a west matchup, it doesn't hurt you as a tie-breaker.  

 

Losing to an East team, (or even a crappy west team like NW who isn't going to be in it,) hurts you less.  They need the tiebreakers against Purdue and Minnie.  I'm not counting BB out.

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Just now, Red Five said:

Couple other interesting observations looking at that:

 

Big 12 = SEC w/o Bama, Georgia, and Vandy

 

Big Ten w/o Ohio St and Michigan = Pac 12 w/o Colorado = ACC

 

Interesting observations.  Pretty much everyone looks significantly worse without their best two teams.

 

Pac-12 without USC and Utah = AAC

 

ACC without Clemson = AAC without Temple & USF

 

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On 10/3/2022 at 11:54 AM, Red Five said:

Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI

 

Minnesota 41%

Purdue 32%

Illinois 15%

Iowa 7%

Wisconsin 4%

Nebraska 1%

Northwestern 0%

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5

 

Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI

 

Purdue 48%

Minnesota 25%

Illinois 19%

Wisconsin 7%

Iowa 1%

Nebraska 1%

Northwestern 0%

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5

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34 minutes ago, Red Five said:

 

Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI

 

Purdue 48%

Minnesota 25%

Illinois 19%

Wisconsin 7%

Iowa 1%

Nebraska 1%

Northwestern 0%

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5

Purdue's win over Maryland is huge. They keep only one loss to the East with Indiana remaining. They beat Minny who still has Penn St which will likely be a loss. Illinois still has Michigan and Wisky has to survive Maryland as well.

 

Purdue has to travel to Illinois and Wisky, but come out 1-1 there and they have done most of the work to win the division. 

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On 10/5/2022 at 9:48 AM, Red Five said:

Here is a composite of 6 different computer rankings based on "Expected point margin over an average team".  Minnesota still favorite for the West, then a cluster of Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, then Nebraska and Northwestern at the bottom.

 

 

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I love this graph.  Lays stuff out in a very readable fashion.

 

 

FexBBGZWQAAW8kL?format=jpg&name=4096x409

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On 10/11/2022 at 9:21 AM, Red Five said:

 

I love this graph.  Lays stuff out in a very readable fashion.

 

 

FexBBGZWQAAW8kL?format=jpg&name=4096x409


Through week 8.  Nationally there is a top 3, big gap to 4-6, small gap to 7-9, then a tiny gap to the rest.

 

For the West, computers have Minny and Illinois in a dead heat followed by Purdue /Wisc (Minny is preset much eliminated from winning the West).  NU is almost an “average team”.

 

FfZ68TPXEAEfWA3?format=jpg&name=large

 

 

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