Guy Chamberlin Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 btw...thanks for reviving the thread. It's pretty interesting how bullish the national media was on Nebraska pre-season, how foolish we felt for that optimism just five days ago, and how quickly we're back to handicapping our chances to win the division. My prediction? A total clusterfugg of flawed teams beating each other up, with Purdue somehow emerging to win with a tie-breaker. 1 Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 26 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said: My next door neighbor is a big sports buff. We meet on the street every day and talk sports. He came over for the 49ers game last night. He went to Illinois and I asked him what he thought about the Wisconsin game. He didn't even know Illinois had won. I asked him how he could become so disengaged from Illinois football and he said "years and years of experience." That is funny! They have done a bad job winning but because of that the student game day culture is not at all about the game. The campus has a huge Greek life and they rent out the bars on game day, so they open up like 2 hours early for the houses that rent it out and they all party...then no one wants to leave to watch, what is usually, a bad team. And it is just far enough from Chicago that fans that live there are not making the drive. Quote Link to comment
B1GRED Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 8 hours ago, BoSolich said: ur aware they lost to indiana? i would say the west is completely up for grabs Illinois loss to Indiana isn't as important as a west matchup, it doesn't hurt you as a tie-breaker. Losing to an East team, (or even a crappy west team like NW who isn't going to be in it,) hurts you less. They need the tiebreakers against Purdue and Minnie. I'm not counting BB out. Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Here is a composite of 6 different computer rankings based on "Expected point margin over an average team". Minnesota still favorite for the West, then a cluster of Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, then Nebraska and Northwestern at the bottom. 2 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Couple other interesting observations looking at that: Big 12 = SEC w/o Bama, Georgia, and Vandy Big Ten w/o Ohio St and Michigan = Pac 12 w/o Colorado = ACC Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Just now, Red Five said: Couple other interesting observations looking at that: Big 12 = SEC w/o Bama, Georgia, and Vandy Big Ten w/o Ohio St and Michigan = Pac 12 w/o Colorado = ACC Interesting observations. Pretty much everyone looks significantly worse without their best two teams. Pac-12 without USC and Utah = AAC ACC without Clemson = AAC without Temple & USF 1 Quote Link to comment
Guy Chamberlin Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 I think we might look back and realize that the Oklahoma loss was inevitable, Georgia Southern was actually better than Northwestern, and holy s#!t....we really should have beaten Northwestern. 1 Quote Link to comment
Undone Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 The reason Minnesota is looking so good right now as far as coming out on top is because these are their cross-divisional games: -Michigan State -Penn State -Rutgers They don't have to play Ohio State or Michigan...and they already beat Michigan State. 1 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 On 10/3/2022 at 11:54 AM, Red Five said: Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI Minnesota 41% Purdue 32% Illinois 15% Iowa 7% Wisconsin 4% Nebraska 1% Northwestern 0% https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5 Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI Purdue 48% Minnesota 25% Illinois 19% Wisconsin 7% Iowa 1% Nebraska 1% Northwestern 0% https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5 1 1 Quote Link to comment
deedsker Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, Red Five said: Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI Purdue 48% Minnesota 25% Illinois 19% Wisconsin 7% Iowa 1% Nebraska 1% Northwestern 0% https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5 Purdue's win over Maryland is huge. They keep only one loss to the East with Indiana remaining. They beat Minny who still has Penn St which will likely be a loss. Illinois still has Michigan and Wisky has to survive Maryland as well. Purdue has to travel to Illinois and Wisky, but come out 1-1 there and they have done most of the work to win the division. Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 On 10/5/2022 at 9:48 AM, Red Five said: Here is a composite of 6 different computer rankings based on "Expected point margin over an average team". Minnesota still favorite for the West, then a cluster of Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, then Nebraska and Northwestern at the bottom. I love this graph. Lays stuff out in a very readable fashion. 3 Quote Link to comment
runningblind Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 5 hours ago, Red Five said: I love this graph. Lays stuff out in a very readable fashion. I like it as well. Take note all that the 3 conference teams we have played already are all lower than us on here. 1 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 On 10/11/2022 at 9:21 AM, Red Five said: I love this graph. Lays stuff out in a very readable fashion. Through week 8. Nationally there is a top 3, big gap to 4-6, small gap to 7-9, then a tiny gap to the rest. For the West, computers have Minny and Illinois in a dead heat followed by Purdue /Wisc (Minny is preset much eliminated from winning the West). NU is almost an “average team”. 2 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 On 10/10/2022 at 11:15 AM, Red Five said: Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI Purdue 48% Minnesota 25% Illinois 19% Wisconsin 7% Iowa 1% Nebraska 1% Northwestern 0% https://www.espn.com/college-football/powerIndex/_/group/5 Chances to win the West according to ESPN FPI Purdue 48% Illinois 44% Minnesota 5% Wisconsin 1% Iowa 1% Nebraska 0% Northwestern 0% 1 Quote Link to comment
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