Did Frost know the onside success rate is 21%?

[Farms]

I’m not defending the call, just saying maybe it wasn’t as bad of a call as we all thought statistically. But since B1G coaches love to throw shade at Frost Im sure one of them will be analyzing our kickoff returns and if our guys turn their backs early one of them will pounce at the chance to try it against us. If successful it would be the ultimate way to throw shade at Frost and humiliate him. Somebody will try it if we give them an opening I guarantee it. 

[thexyz]

I’m sure that Frost was aware of his own success rate for onside kicks attempts. Before the try it was 0/5. He hadn’t had 1 successful attempt other than on one occasion when it was nullified due to penalty.

 

I’m not opposed to onside kicks. It didn’t necessarily cost us the game. It just wasn’t the time to do it. With everything else that was going on, we didn’t need to add one more thing to the mix as a likely hindrance. The odds weren’t in our favor. And the timing of it didn’t match up with it’s implementation.

[Husker in WI]

1 minute ago, M.A. said:

I’m sure that Frost was aware of his own success rate for onside kicks attempts. Before the try it was 0/5. He hadn’t had 1 successful attempt other than on one occasion when it was nullified due to penalty.

 

I’m not opposed to onside kicks. It didn’t necessarily cost us the game. It just wasn’t the time to do it. With everything else that was going on, we didn’t need to add one more thing to the mix as a likely hindrance. The odds weren’t in our favor. And the timing of it didn’t match up with it’s implementation.

 

He also hadn't had a special teams coordinator. I don't like the call either but this was literally the time the odds were in our favor. And even with our defense getting pushed around, I don't think NW would've come back from 3 scores down. It was too risky for my taste even with better odds with the lead, but this is the kind of thing that would be lauded as a genius move and Frost doing what it takes to win if it's just a better kick. 

[suh_fan93]

2 minutes ago, Farms said:

I’m not defending the call, just saying maybe it wasn’t as bad of a call as we all thought statistically. But since B1G coaches love to throw shade at Frost Im sure one of them will be analyzing our kickoff returns and if our guys turn their backs early one of them will pounce at the chance to try it against us. If successful it would be the ultimate way to throw shade at Frost and humiliate him. Somebody will try it if we give them an opening I guarantee it. 

 

Not a bad call when your team aka Nebraska literally returns one of the worst if not the worst special teams units in the entire conference if not all of college football???

 

I think it's laughable to expect that Nebraska would have a good chance of successfully executing it because statistically other teams have.  That's tin foil hat territory imo based on the team attempting said onside kick when up by only 11 points is Nebraska.

[Husker in WI]

4 minutes ago, suh_fan93 said:

 

Not a bad call when your team aka Nebraska literally returns one of the worst if not the worst special teams units in the entire conference if not all of college football???

 

I think it's laughable to expect that Nebraska would have a good chance of successfully executing it because statistically other teams have.  That's tin foil hat territory imo based on the team attempting said onside kick when up by only 11 points is Nebraska.

 

Got it, so numbers don't apply to your team because it's different. Most people aren't a fan of the call, but it's at the very least defensible. 

[suh_fan93]

2 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Got it, so numbers don't apply to your team because it's different. Nebraska.  Most people aren't a fan of the call, but it's at the very least defensible. 

 

FIFY

[hskrfan4life]

Does the OP know we can move on to North Dakota?

[thexyz]

1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

 

He also hadn't had a special teams coordinator. I don't like the call either but this was literally the time the odds were in our favor. And even with our defense getting pushed around, I don't think NW would've come back from 3 scores down. It was too risky for my taste even with better odds with the lead, but this is the kind of thing that would be lauded as a genius move and Frost doing what it takes to win if it's just a better kick. 

It's a high risk, high return situation in my opinion. If his decision works, it's a brilliant move. The way our defense was playing could give him pause to consider it. One has to weigh all the potential consequences of it being unsuccessful including, how it could negatively influence not only the outcome of the game. There's lots to consider. And, it's convenient to criticize. 

 

I'm not sure what favorable "looks" Northwestern was giving that would indicate it working. It might be useful to go back and review each of the kicks. On that particular play, Northwestern's players were seemingly doing what they should've been doing at the precise moment ready. It wasn't a great kick, either as you say. 

 

In hindsight, perhaps a fake onside kick attempt sometime during the game would've helped our cause. The defense wasn't playing well and couldn't catch a break.  

[Mavric]

1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

Got it, so numbers don't apply to your team because it's different. Most people aren't a fan of the call, but it's at the very least defensible. 

 

Yep.  Once you fail at something you should never try that thing again for the duration of the program.

 

I don't expect us to attempt any field goals this year because we were so bad at that last year.

[irafreak]

The problem with stats is they really don't tell the whole story. You may have a 60% chance to recover the kick but the mentally weak Scott Frost era teams won't recover from that kind of failure.

 

Here's how I look at it. Which would you be more comfortable betting your house on?

1) they recover the kick and go on to win

2) they don't recover and go on to lose

I know which one I'm betting on. 

[Husker in WI]

Just now, irafreak said:

The problem with stats is they really don't tell the whole story. You may have a 60% chance to recover the kick but the mentally weak Scott Frost era teams won't recover from that kind of failure.

 

Here's how I look at it. Which would you be more comfortable betting your house on?

1) they recover the kick and go on to win

2) they don't recover and go on to lose

I know which one I'm betting on. 

 

What about 3) they don't recover the kick but still win, because they were up by two scores and up to that point moving the ball just fine. IMO assigning an arbitrary 100% loss rate after not getting the kick based on our beliefs about the team's psyche is pretty ridiculous. And yes, I've watched the team in the Frost era. 

[knapplc]

6 minutes ago, irafreak said:

The problem with stats is they really don't tell the whole story. You may have a 60% chance to recover the kick but the mentally weak Scott Frost era teams won't recover from that kind of failure.

 

Here's how I look at it. Which would you be more comfortable betting your house on?

1) they recover the kick and go on to win

2) they don't recover and go on to lose

I know which one I'm betting on. 

 

The risk/reward analysis favors kicking it deep.

 

Your defense is gassed and hasn't slowed Northwestern much all day. You have a two-score lead. Kick it deep and let your defense defend the length of the field. This is the lowest-risk option. 

 

The high-risk option is the onside kick. If you recover, your defense gets more rest and you have the potential to blow the game open with another score. If you fail, you give Northwestern the ball in plus field position against your gassed, ineffective defense, and you make it a one-score game whether they kick a field goal or score a TD.

 

The odds may say surprise kicks are recovered 60% of the time, but that's not a good enough bet in that situation. 

[DefenderAO]

Someone told him the odds were close to his one score win %.  Since he didn't know that he "let it rip!"

[suh_fan93]

 

[Husker in WI]

4 hours ago, suh_fan93 said:

 

 

And we still had a 78.8% win probability after they scored on the following possession. Us blowing games we are in control of is Frost's biggest issue for sure, and failing the onside kick hurt. But we did not lose the game solely because of the onside kick.