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Define Expectations


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When Scott Frost was hired to coach this dumpster fire, he was given a seven year contract.  I was all for that.  But now, thinking back I had expectations.  I was all for seven years to return us to being competitive on the national championship level.  At least being in the conversation consistently.  I just assumed he'd have winning records from year one, even if it was just 6-6 the first year.  I certainly didn't even suspect it would go the other way.

 

At one point, I felt that a good coach could come in and turn things around by year two and be near the top by year four.  But the Huskers have been a mess for almost 20 years now.  Begs the question, how long will it take for even a good coach to get the ship righted?  The transfer portal and the endorsement $$ opportunities do change the equation I think.

 

Forget who gets hired,   If we get a "good" guy, what are the expectations for:

Year 1:

Year 2:

Year 3:

Year 4:

 

When does the leash end and we look for the next coach up?

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Right the ship next season (maybe this season) and turn at least half of those one score losses into wins using the same talent. 

 

If you can't do better than the old coach with the same talent, why are you even here?

 

After that?  Better recruiting and player development. A team that's easy to root for. Nebraska enters the Thanksgiving weekend still in contention for the Big 10 West, however that looks and however you got there. 

 

That doesn't seem too much to ask.

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Year 1: 6 wins.

Year 2: 5 wins.

Year 3: 5-7 wins.

Year 4: 7-8 wins. This should not be a losing season.

Year 5: 7-9 wins.

Year 6-7: I want a team that can win 10 games. You don't have to, but I want to see proof that you can.

By Year 8 you should be consistently finishing in the top 25 and competing for a spot in the 12-team playoff.

 

Year 1 won't tell me much but how much better a gameday coach we are. Are we making dumb mistakes? 

Year 2 will tell me more about Frost than the new guy. There are very serious depth issues that need to be fixed via HS recruiting. It's hard to project how we'd portal since there's so much variance in results anytime you portal someone in. This is going to be a tough year depth-wise.

Year 3 is where we see proof of concept. Can we be tough? Can we recruit some depth? Maybe some freshmen show out. I want to be hopeful after year 3.

Year 4 - can you win with your scheme, your guys, and ultimately your program? I'm happy with a bowl here. 

Year 5 - I want to be in the hunt for a division title. Development should be evident and we should be consistently winning the games that matter.

 

Along the way we should see serious improvement in HS recruiting and the quantity of guys that go in rounds 3-7 of the draft.

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1 minute ago, TonkaSker said:

Year 1: 6 wins.

Year 2: 5 wins.

Year 3: 5-7 wins.

Year 4: 7-8 wins.

Year 5: 7-9 wins.

Year 6-7: I want a team that can win 10 games. You don't have to, but I want to see proof that you can.

By Year 8 you should be consistently finishing in the top 25 and competing for a spot in the 12-team playoff.

 

 

Linear progressions like this are exceedingly rare.

 

If the coach ends up being the long term solution we all hope and want it'll probably be something closer to

 

Year 1: 6-7

Year 2: 7-10

Year 3: 7-10

Year 4: 6-8

Year 5: 10-12

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Makes me think back, and how there are so many words to describe what's happened here.  They're all over the place.  The main thing is that now we're hoping that Joseph can take these same kids and make them do different things by just enough to give us a winning season, otherwise why fire Frost at this point instead of letting him continue through October or even the rest of the season?  Somebody expects something.

 

My expectations can't coalesce much right now as to the new coach coming in (IF a new coach comes in, T.O. and others are intimating that Mickey Joseph can do well here).  If we hire a new guy for megabux then here we go again on the "next season" thing, lather/rinse/repeat. 

 

I just don't know what to expect anymore.  It'd be wonderful to have that Husker dream come true, wherein we see 9+ wins per season.  But.........

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10 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

Linear progressions like this are exceedingly rare.

 

If the coach ends up being the long term solution we all hope and want it'll probably be something closer to

 

Year 1: 6-7

Year 2: 7-10

Year 3: 7-10

Year 4: 6-8

Year 5: 10-12

 

+1 your point about linear progression - we agree.

 

The roster is set up for serious regression after next year. That said, this team should be bowling by year 3 and missing a bowl game should be cause for concern after that. It's definitely going to look closer to your projection because it has more variance but the absolute floor will be 6 wins going forward. I worry about next year, with a ton of returning starters will set up for the same disappointment we're experiencing this year. The portal will help and likely improve upon what I think but it's impossible to project what you can pull out of the portal.

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Old Husker Expectations: 

Year 1  Win the West

Year 2  Win the Conference

Year 3 Win the NC    chuckleshuffle

 

 

Realistic Expectations:

Year 1   Develop the OL and DL - via recruit, transfer and player development.  Hold onto your gifted skilled position players  (6-7 wins)

Year 2   Beat at least one of these:  Iowa, Wisc, Mini  (beat 2 would be huge)   (7-8 wins)

Year 3  Contend for the west division or our 'pod' (depending on realignment)  (8 wins)

Year 4   Win the West/Our POD  - Not sure if by then there will be 4 pods, 2 divisions or just a wide open conference  (8-9 wins)

Year 5   Contend for the Conf Championship  (8-10 wins)

 

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Putting win numbers, championships by a certain year, or any other measurable is a bit of an over reach imo.  Crawl before we walk... run.  My real expectation is to field a team that is fun to watch, wins more than they lose, and makes Saturday's fun again.  

 

 

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Solid progression without any major setbacks, with noticeable player development.   Getting back to yearly bowl games, with the shear number of available spots, should be the minimum target the first couple years, then steady progress to better bowls in the 3-5 year range, and then competing every few years for the division/conference championships at 5 year on.  

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Year one: Improvement throughout the season, and at least solid O and D line play by the end of the year.

 

Year two: Make a bowl game. Any bowl game. It can be a bad one in Detroit or NYC. Just make one and get those extra practices.

 

Year three: If there are still divisions in the Big 10 by then, be a contender in the division.

 

Year four and beyond: Be a favorite (or at least heavily in the mix) to win the division every year.

 

My hopes for Nebraska don't end at winning the division. But they haven't done that since 2012. They haven't been in the mix in mid November since 2014. Until they get there again first, everything else is irrelevant. 

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