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What did we learn? Purdue


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18 hours ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Yards per play and explosive plays. If you outgain your opponents by over 3 yards per play (9.2 to 6.0) you will win more often than not - the fact that we "lost" most other metrics explains why it was only a 60% chance. And I get it, the only stat that ends up mattering is points scored versus points allowed. But you can give up sacks, lose the TO battle, and give up a lot of yardage and still win averaging 9 yards per play. We did just enough to lose in spite of that.

 

Great stuff.

 

I disagree with that Tweet by the Purdon't guy saying "Nebraska was never really in the game" or however it was phrased.

 

We were playing from behind until the 4th quarter because of the bad start but we were absolutely in it in the second half. If Thompson hits Alante in the back of the end zone and the defense just holds them to a field goal on their last score that was a TD, we probably win.

 

Here's a question: If this year's 'skers play last year's team, who wins? My answer is that this team probably wins 4 out of 5 times.

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33 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Great stuff.

 

I disagree with that Tweet by the Purdon't guy saying "Nebraska was never really in the game" or however it was phrased.

 

We were playing from behind until the 4th quarter because of the bad start but we were absolutely in it in the second half. If Thompson hits Alante in the back of the end zone and the defense just holds them to a field goal on their last score that was a TD, we probably win.

 

Here's a question: If this year's 'skers play last year's team, who wins? My answer is that this team probably wins 4 out of 5 times.

 

I honestly think last year's team was better, mainly due to the older players that were on the defense, plus with Jurgens the o-line was not as big of a disaster as this year.  What is your opinion that this year's team would win based on, the new skill players alone?

 

Special teams are much better in 2022, offenses are very similar, except for o-line, but the 2021 defense was much better.

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28 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Here's a question: If this year's 'skers play last year's team, who wins? My answer is that this team probably wins 4 out of 5 times.

Maybe it was my rose glasses, but I never got the feeling that last years team was "bad".

 

This years team sickens me. It is really, really... Really really really.. Bad. 

 

Last years team wins 4 out of 5. Last years team with CT at QB wins 5/5. This years team w/ AM at QB is actually a better team, imo, than what we currently have.  It is the most Nebraska conundrum ever. 

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37 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said:

 

I honestly think last year's team was better, mainly due to the older players that were on the defense, plus with Jurgens the o-line was not as big of a disaster as this year.  What is your opinion that this year's team would win based on, the new skill players alone?

 

Special teams are much better in 2022, offenses are very similar, except for o-line, but the 2021 defense was much better.

 

Good stuff, good stuff. Jurgens and then the senior D-linemen were big for sure.

 

I think it's having a good punter and not constantly screwing up special teams, and then on offense the big play ability is just undeniable.

 

The offensive line is considerably worse than last year (IMO) in yet the passing upgrade in Thompson combined mainly then with Palmer's ability to streak downfield wide open will probably make this year's team have a considerably higher points per game number by the end of the year.

 

It is admittedly currently not "considerably higher," but there's a lot of football to be played.

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44 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said:

I honestly think last year's team was better, mainly due to the older players that were on the defense, plus with Jurgens the o-line was not as big of a disaster as this year.  What is your opinion that this year's team would win based on, the new skill players alone?

 

Special teams are much better in 2022, offenses are very similar, except for o-line, but the 2021 defense was much better.

 

The more I watch the more I think Martinez helped cover up for the OL the last few years.

 

If we had Martinez back there, their DEs would be able to just try to outrun our OTs around the outside to get to the QB because they are opening a huge gap that someone like Martinez could just take off and run through.

 

Also, I saw it pointed out over the last couple of days that we seem to be setting up really deep in the pocket.  Martinez would the the shotgun snap and basically stay on that spot to look for a place to throw.  Thompson is getting the snap and then dropping a few more steps.  That makes it really hard for the OTs because it's much harder to defend against a speed rush if the QB is that deep.  I assume that is a Whipple thing.

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41 minutes ago, Husker03 said:

Maybe it was my rose glasses, but I never got the feeling that last years team was "bad".

 

This years team sickens me. It is really, really... Really really really.. Bad. 

 

Last years team wins 4 out of 5. Last years team with CT at QB wins 5/5. This years team w/ AM at QB is actually a better team, imo, than what we currently have.  It is the most Nebraska conundrum ever. 

 

When you play atrocious special teams in the B1G, it's my opinion that you can basically never possibly have a good outcome.

 

I love Martinez and what he brings and was & am a huge defender of his, but I think we're in a better spot with a running back that's elite (Grant) and a QB that is a throw-first guy. There's just more big play ability there and more potential to convert 3rd downs.

 

If I put on my rose-colored glasses, I think if Bill Busch had been coaching the defense for Northwestern & Georgia Southern and we played more of the Indiana game plan in those two we absolutely win and we're 5-2 instead of 3-4. Not at all a "good" 5-2, but we're setup to win more games than Frost ever could.

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21 hours ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Yards per play and explosive plays. If you outgain your opponents by over 3 yards per play (9.2 to 6.0) you will win more often than not - the fact that we "lost" most other metrics explains why it was only a 60% chance. And I get it, the only stat that ends up mattering is points scored versus points allowed. But you can give up sacks, lose the TO battle, and give up a lot of yardage and still win averaging 9 yards per play. We did just enough to lose in spite of that.


Here is the advanced box score where a lot of the win probability is built off of.

 

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One interesting thing I noticed looking at this is that we ran the ball 100% of the time in the pistol and under center (I would like to see snap counts behind those numbers).

 

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3 hours ago, Undone said:

 

Great stuff.

 

I disagree with that Tweet by the Purdon't guy saying "Nebraska was never really in the game" or however it was phrased.

 

We were playing from behind until the 4th quarter because of the bad start but we were absolutely in it in the second half. If Thompson hits Alante in the back of the end zone and the defense just holds them to a field goal on their last score that was a TD, we probably win.

 

If you look at Purdue's play calling on that game-killing drive, they absolutely did not trust their defense to stop Nebraska. 

 

Nebraska fans would have blown a nut if Whipple called a 4th and 1 pass play. 

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