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2023/24 Outlook


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With last night's loss to the gophers, it appears the 2022/23 season is over.  There is a very slim chance to make the NIT, but no one is holding their breath on that.

 

I'm just wondering what everyone is thinking about next season.

 

I will try to do an analysis of all the returning players (including Tominaga) like I did last year, but it will take a few days to get my thoughts together.  I think they have some good pieces that can/should come back, but losing Walker is going to hurt.

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I posted this in the transfer thread.

 

The last part of the season got me more excited for the young guys than I was.

 

Lawrence - Looks like a shooter that can really help if Tominaga doesn't come back.  If he DOES come back, it will be great to have two good shooters.

Keita - I really hope he keeps developing to become a force on the inside.  He has the body and athleticism to do it.  Hopefully this year got him used to playing in the Big Ten.  And, hope he stays healthy.

Lloyde - Don't know much about him, but it sounds like he's doing well on the practice squad and is a guy who can drive and get to the rim.

Gary - Hopefully he comes back.  I thought he showed some good things this year till he got hurt.  Hopefully, he keeps developing.

 

I don't see much from anyone else on the roster.  I just don't ever see Kojenets developing into anything.  It would be fantastic if he could with his length.  But, I just don't see it.  Dawson??? Maybe...but, I just haven't seen anything spectacular.

 

We really need to find transfers to go with the 5 I listed above.  Another big guy would be.....well.....big.

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1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

I posted this in the transfer thread.

 

The last part of the season got me more excited for the young guys than I was.

 

Lawrence - Looks like a shooter that can really help if Tominaga doesn't come back.  If he DOES come back, it will be great to have two good shooters.

Keita - I really hope he keeps developing to become a force on the inside.  He has the body and athleticism to do it.  Hopefully this year got him used to playing in the Big Ten.  And, hope he stays healthy.

Lloyde - Don't know much about him, but it sounds like he's doing well on the practice squad and is a guy who can drive and get to the rim.

Gary - Hopefully he comes back.  I thought he showed some good things this year till he got hurt.  Hopefully, he keeps developing.

 

I don't see much from anyone else on the roster.  I just don't ever see Kojenets developing into anything.  It would be fantastic if he could with his length.  But, I just don't see it.  Dawson??? Maybe...but, I just haven't seen anything spectacular.

 

We really need to find transfers to go with the 5 I listed above.  Another big guy would be.....well.....big.

This and a couple of replies is what made me make the thread.

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2 hours ago, gobiggergoredder said:

It’s neat to win a few games.  Sometimes in a row.

 

I don’t see much reason to believe anything will be different next year.  
 

Little bit too much excitement generated by a few wins and the play of Japanese Steve Kerr.  
 

Lawrence appears to have some upside, but after that it looks like the typical big red basketball.

Definitely an opinion as 2 of our freshman played meaningful minutes & Lloyd was a good propect before he redshirted.  Keita was playing really good in the big10, but had an ankle injury.   Yes, we need some help out of the portal,  but there is a nice core who have played together.  I not sure I could have said that in the past years.

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On 3/10/2023 at 8:44 PM, gobiggergoredder said:

It’s neat to win a few games.  Sometimes in a row.

 

I don’t see much reason to believe anything will be different next year.  
 

Little bit too much excitement generated by a few wins and the play of Japanese Steve Kerr.  
 

Lawrence appears to have some upside, but after that it looks like the typical big red basketball.

Too much excitement by whom?   I happened to have fun watching it.  What’s the harm in that?

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On 3/10/2023 at 8:44 PM, gobiggergoredder said:

It’s neat to win a few games.  Sometimes in a row.

 

I don’t see much reason to believe anything will be different next year.  
 

Little bit too much excitement generated by a few wins and the play of Japanese Steve Kerr.  
 

Lawrence appears to have some upside, but after that it looks like the typical big red basketball.

I disagree.

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20 minutes ago, gobiggergoredder said:

The good thing is we'll find out.

 

I'll go out and say we are again in the bottom half of the league next year.  No dance.  No NIT.  I suppose the portal could help that, but I doubt it.

 

I'd really like to think differently but at this point I think I have to agree.  We seemed to overachieve against a watered-down B1G this year.  Perhaps it will still be watered-down next year but we are also likely having to completely rebuild our rotation (again) and I don't like our chances of replacing Walker or (probably) Tominga.

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Alphabetically by class:

 

Henry Burt - Freshman walk on.  Will be a redshirt freshman next year because he redshirted this year.  Didn't really see anything in warmups that indicates he will get much playing time next year, but I thought the same thing about Sam Hoiberg after last season so you never know.

 

Denim Dawson - Redshirt freshman.  Will be a third year (really 2.5 since he joined the team in January 2021) sophomore next year.  Should have some good upside if he can become a consistent three point shooter.  Long & very athletic.  Good defender.  If his shooting becomes consistent, he could be a 3 & D guy off the bench next year.  His role seemed to diminish as the season progressed and if he doesn't improve his shooting, it will be similar next year.

 

Jeffrey Grace III -Redshirt freshman walk on.  Will be a sophomore next year.  Same as Henry Burt - didn't really see anything indicating he will play much next year, but could see him becoming a crowd favorite in mop up time.

 

Sam Hoiberg - Redshirt freshman walk on.  Will be a third year sophomore next year.  Pleasant surprise when everyone started going down with injuries.  May not play as much next season, but certainly deserves to be in the rotation.  Good shooter, instinctive defensively - typical "coaches kid".  If he had his dad's height, he would probably be on scholarship somewhere.

 

Cale Jacobson - Freshman Walk on.  Will be a redshirt freshman next year.  Same as Henry Burt & Jeffrey Grace III - didn't see anything showing that he will play much next year.

 

Oleg Kojenets - Redshirt freshman.  Will be a sophomore next year.  Tall, but needs to put on at least 20-25 pounds (7', 232).  Looks kind of awkward at times, but seemed to improve as the season progressed.  Looks to have a decent outside shot (based on warm ups).  Decent rebounder at times, but would be better with more strength so he didn't get pushed around as much.  I'm not sure how much he will play next year, but two years ago I wondered what Purdue was thinking with Zach Edey, so who knows.  I'm not saying he will turn into a national POY, but he could become much better since he's still a project.

 

Jamarques Lawrence - Freshman.  Will be a sophomore next year.  Really improved as the season progressed.  Good three point shooter & seemed to be a willing driver.  Will need to develop a floater to make his driving bear fruit.  Seems pretty instinctive defensively.  Will probably have to become a point guard, because he's only 6' 3", but I don't see any reason why that can't happen because he seems to be a pretty good ball handler.  He just needs to be able to set up teammates, but there were times toward the end of the season he seemed to play point (or something similar) when Greisel was out.

 

Ramel Lloyd Jr. - Freshman.  Will be a redshirt freshman next year.  Was highly rated out of HS & sounds like he was pretty good on the scout team this year.  Didn't really see much in warmups, but hopefully he gets some PT next year.

 

Quaran McPherson - Redshirt freshman.  Will be a third year sophomore next year, but could apply for a medical hardship.  Blew out his knee in preseason practice, but indications were that he would get a lot of PT as the backup point.  Might have forced Lawrence to redshirt if he hadn't been injured.  Hopefully he comes back 100% next year & picks up where he left off before the injury.

 

Wilhelm Breidenbach - Sophomore. Will be a junior next year, but could apply for a medical hardship because he only played 10 games last year before blowing out his knee.  Seemed to improve as the season went, at least from a rebounding standpoint and understanding what a good shot is (fewer threes & more put backs).  Seems to be able to make three pointers in warmups, but doesn't translate to games.  Maybe it will come as he gets older and the game slows down for him.  Always hustles, but needs to pull it back a little at times as he gets fouls that could be easily avoided.  He won't wow anyone with his athleticism (looks awkward a lot).  Needs to get stronger in the post, especially on defense.  Has the ability to put the ball on the floor, but needs to keep his dribbling more under control as he too frequently dribbles off his foot or too far from his body leading to steals/turnovers.

 

Blaise Keita - Sophomore.  Will be a fourth year junior next year.  Seemed to be more comfortable with his role as the season went on.  Needs to be a defense/rebounding guy right now, but shows some ability on the offensive end.  This season was slowed by multiple ankle injuries - hopefully he can take some time off in the next couple of weeks and get it back to 100%.  At times looks a little awkward, but I think that had to do with comfort with the speed of the game and his role.  Hopefully he makes a big step forward next year since he should be used to the size/speed of the B1G.

 

C J Wilcher - Sophomore.  Will be a fourth year junior next season.  His three point shot never really got on track this year, but did start to drive more and has developed a floater & some craftiness around the basket.  Better defensively this year than last, but it is still an area he needs to work on.  If he can get back to a 40% three point shooter like he was in 21/22, he could be very dangerous next season.

 

Juwan Gary - Junior.  Will be a fifth year senior next year.  Crazy athletic.  Great rebounder for his size (6' 6", 220).  Great perimeter defender.  Needs to become a more consistent three point shooter.  Really need him to come back from his shoulder injury next year.  Hopefully some if his shooting issues were due to the shoulder which wasn't 100% before the season ending injury to it.

 

Keisei Tominaga - Junior.  Will be a fifth year senior next season (if he comes back).  Great shooter with unlimited range.  Great enthusiasm.  Very crafty in the paint so he can get his shot up without it being blocked.  His defense got better as the season went along, but he's never going to be great because of his size (listed as 6' 2', 175).  Would be great to get him to use his covid year and come back next year.  Needs to become a point guard because at his size he is too small to be a shooting guard in most professional leagues.  Seems to have a pretty good handle, but most of his passes are just to move the ball from point A to point B, not really set up teammates for scoring opportunities.  Still has a tendency to take "bad" shots, but with his range it is sometimes hard to judge good from bad.

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59 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

I'd really like to think differently but at this point I think I have to agree.  We seemed to overachieve against a watered-down B1G this year.  Perhaps it will still be watered-down next year but we are also likely having to completely rebuild our rotation (again) and I don't like our chances of replacing Walker or (probably) Tominga.

Just don't see them replacing Walker.  For the most part, prior to emergence of Tominaga, if Walker struggled, then so did the team.

 

Beating the teams that we should beat, hanging with the ones that we should hang with and still getting blown out by the ones that are where we'd like to be doesn't make me confident going into next year.  The Creighton win was nice, but I'm glad we played them during their 6 game slump.

 

I know very little about basketball, but I watch almost every game.  I wish we could just get into the top 3rd of the conference. 

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