Our model says there’s an 81 in 100 chance that Biden wins the popular vote — compared to his 71 in 100 chance in the Electoral College. That means there’s about a 10% chance that Trump *again* wins the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. https://t.co/gkIglh1LL5 pic.twitter.com/CmES37oqyf

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 12, 2020