According to the polls, Trump was meant to win:
- Iowa by 53 points (he won by 30)
- New Hampshire by 18 points (he won by 11)
- South Carolina by 28 points (he won by 20)
- Michigan by 62 points (he's up by 42)

4 states yields 4 examples of him dramatically underperformed polls

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 28, 2024