2009 Hoops forecast

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dawhuskerkc

Well-known member
2008 season 18 wins 13 losses

Margin of victory in wins = 259 pts/18 wins avg pts+ in wins 14, 2 games won under 3 pts

Deficit in losses =123 pts/13 losses avg deficit pts -9 in losses, 4 games lost by 1 or 2 pts.

Projected Differences from 08 to 09.

Offensive put backs -10 in losses, project net 25pts shift +15 overall picks up 2 games

Cookie drives to hoop -14pts in B12 games. Jeter or b.rich +6 pts +8 picks up 1 game

08 Velander/bench missed shots -34 pts, versus bigger men….

09 Bear Gallegos, Mcray Richardson +20 net +14 picks up 1 game

Projected record for 09 ………………………………......................................22-7

 
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Hell yeah I will take 22-7 :) :w00t

I think the backcourt will be very underated this year and as long as the frontcourt can hold their own I think this team will be a big surprise.

 
We are far too young to make that big of a splash this season. Better size and a lot of athleticism, but I don't think we have a go to guy which was Dagunduro last season, but he's gone. I like the potential of this squad though for sure.

 
KansasHusker said:
We are far too young to make that big of a splash this season. Better size and a lot of athleticism, but I don't think we have a go to guy which was Dagunduro last season, but he's gone. I like the potential of this squad though for sure.
Click to expand...

ADag was our best player last year....

however harley velander, miler and ballham now gone were also our biggest liabilities.

Productivity across offense and defense clearly illustrates that these players, were the right ones to lose.

Nothing personal....the challenge is to subdivide the minutes played across the new talent applied to the game factors.....

This years team should by playing in Docs system, make up for the deficits of last years players.

We had a good year last year...however the players that got the most minutes were not our best players accept for AD.

The stats indicate that the players handicaps accounted for the deficit in the current forecast for 09/10 record of 22-7. What we compare is understanding deficit productivity....the data are clear.

 
We were in desperate need of a growth spurt last season. And we have one for this year. Hankins and Diaz should be very useful this year. Diaz will continue to get better all four years in Doc's system.

 
EZ-E said:
We were in desperate need of a growth spurt last season. And we have one for this year. Hankins and Diaz should be very useful this year. Diaz will continue to get better all four years in Doc's system.
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completely agree. Last years minutes illustrate that the players not returning played 57% of total minutes played. The rebounding stat best illustrates the deficit as in those combined minutes, those players got only 47 % of all rebounds. That is a deficit within a multi valued reference space.

Diaz, UBEL, & Hankins will greatly enhance the teams overall rebounding, and rebounding has major consequences on game outcomes. Be they put backs for points or new starts for the offense, rebounding deficit between us and opponents will be a big factor in meeting this next teams potential for a 22-7 season.

The wild cards are referees.....a factor that keeps gamblers whole.

 
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dawhuskerkc said:
EZ-E said:
We were in desperate need of a growth spurt last season. And we have one for this year. Hankins and Diaz should be very useful this year. Diaz will continue to get better all four years in Doc's system.
Click to expand...
completely agree. Last years minutes illustrate that the players not returning played 57% of total minutes played. The rebounding stat best illustrates the deficit as in those combined minutes, those players got only 47 % of all rebounds. That is a deficit within a multi valued reference space.

Diaz, UBEL, & Hankins will greatly enhance the teams overall rebounding, and rebounding has major consequences on game outcomes. Be they put backs for points or new starts for the offense, rebounding deficit between us and opponents will be a big factor in meeting this next teams potential for a 22-7 season.

The wild cards are referees.....a factor that keeps gamblers whole.
Click to expand...

Rebounding Improvement will make a big difference

Last years rebounding

About Last Season

861 total rebounds versus 1066 by opponents

Offense 225 avg 7.25 per game

Defense 636 avg 20.5 per game

205 fewer rebounds than opponents

87 fewer on offense

118 fewer on defense

NU's 09/10 squad must minimmaly cut the deficit in rebounding totals versus opponents by 80%

Last year we had serious trouble getting points on offensive put backs, there were many games where two and three attempts were rejected or just would not fall. Our offensive rebounding numbers need to improve, in quantity and quality, meaning the ball scored or we get to eat a new shot clock. Our Size was the shortcoming as the totals and results showed sloppy play and lack of bodies in position to help.

A realistic target total would be +140 on offense and +120 on defense bringing us to parity and better than last years opponents totals. Raising the Of R to 12 per game, allows the game to increase Docs systemic advantage. Kick the ball out or score, are both areas where the O f rebounding will enhance the Skers record. The points from rebounding put backs needs to really ramp, our misses last year cost us two games, minimum.

On defense the rebounding deficit accounts for + points against us. This again needs to be cut. Our new height should enable this margin to cut in half at a minimum. It may not come in all games, especially against B12 powers, but getting this gain at all, helps improve our chances to achieve a forecast for a plus 4 win column move..

 
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You are making a lot of assumptions. You are saying "all these guys are going to be better than those other guys" and arbitrarily assigning numbers to their projected productivity.

I will be surprised if NU wins 20 or more games this year. I'll take it, but I will be in disbelief.

 
captain obvious said:
You are making a lot of assumptions. You are saying "all these guys are going to be better than those other guys" and arbitrarily assigning numbers to their projected productivity.

I will be surprised if NU wins 20 or more games this year. I'll take it, but I will be in disbelief.
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your right of course. Lots of assumptions

We are taller, so projecting that we will get more rebounds isnt such a leap of understanding. You did see last years rebounding totals? We better improve on those numbers and its not a great leap to suggest we will.

shooting % last year were only fair. To suggest that these numbers might get better with this group is wishful thinking but not out of the relm of possibility.

CS is a player....that is clear. Is he going to be better than Ade? We dont know. If he produces during his limited season up to Ade, we are a better team in total.

Jeter & B rich each needs to do better than miller...should not be that difficult.

Jeter is closer to Collins of KU than Miller, so measure the tangibles because that is all we have at this point.

Ryan now gets to play a more natural position, and Sek as well.

Ubell, Hankins Cole and Diaz....all bring missing tangibles compared to last years team...those three add ht, at natural positions, can they play better than smaller guys playing unnatural positions?

Velander played miserably the 2nd half of the season.....was his play due to being out of position?

Probably some truth in that.

that leaves Mccray...MCCray needs to beat his last years production...no leap of understanding to project that responsibility to him unless his injury prevents it, a year of maturity on a team with better tangibles should enable him to surpass his production from last year.

If Doc coaches his system and applies his schemes, with this Height improvement, we can and should do better. Team Chemistry, is a wild card, if we find it early we are better off, last years guys surpassed expectations by playing Docs system, even though 2/5ths of them found themselves outside of their natural positions much of the time.

your sceptisim is as right as my optimism....

 
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No McCray, freshmen taking longer to cope with Big 12 play, and being in the toughest conference in the nation don't help.

 
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