As most of you all know, I like looking at stats when gauging how a game or a season could turn out. So, I'm doing more of the same here.
Pythagorean projections for football were developed by the stats website, Football Outsiders. It attempts to project how many wins a team should have based upon how many points they have scored and how many points they have allowed. Here's the link to the formula for those of you who may be curious as to what it is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation
Before going any further, here are a couple of rules that are useful when applying the numbers:
- If a team won a game or more more than their Pythagorean projection, that team is expected to regress the following season
- If a team lost a game or more than their Pythagorean projection, that team is expected to improve the following season, especially if that team was over .500 despite underperforming
Overall, Pythagorean projections are valuable predictors of year-to-year improvement. Note that valuable doesn't mean always correct. There is a lot of variance in football that can't be accounted for by points scored and points allowed. For example, a team which underperformed may have changed coaching staffs (see Auburn); or a team might have lost a game changing player. Nevertheless, here is how the season stacks up next year based on Pythagorean projections.
Nebraska
First of all, it's important to gauge what kind of team we are going to have so that we can compare ourselves to the teams on our schedule. Here are Nebraska's Pythagorean numbers:
- Wins in 2013-14: 9
- Pythagorean expectation: 8.376 wins
- Difference: 0.624 wins
So according to expectations, we shouldn't expect a significant leap forward or a big step backwards next season (doesn't that sound familiar). A couple of factors which may change what actually happens that Nebraska can control are reducing the number of turnovers and gaining more experience on the defensive side of the ball. First, turnovers absolutely killed Nebraska in a few games last season, namely the Michigan State and Iowa games. Both of those games could have been wins had the Huskers not have turned the ball over as many times as they did. Second, the defense was very young last year, and we saw them come into their own late in the season. A front seven that has more experience and has as much athleticism as they do can dramatically improve a team. But, going off the expectations, we shouldn't expect a big leap forward nor backwards. Now let's turn our focus to the teams on our schedule.
Florida Atlantic
- 2013-14 wins: 6 wins
- Pythagorean expectation: 7.204 wins
- Difference: -1.204 wins
According to the projection, Florida Atlantic should be an improved team this upcoming season. But improved enough to beat Nebraska in Lincoln? Nebraska did struggle with their home opener last season against Wyoming, almost dropping the game after having a three score lead. However, while Florida Atlantic is expected to improve next year, I don't think they will improve enough to beat a team of Nebraska's caliber. Might they beat more conference opponents? Yes, but not Nebraska.
Nebraska should win this game. Confidence: 10/10
Fresno State
- 2013-14 wins: 11
- Pythagorean expectations: 9.108 wins
- Difference: 1.892 wins
The expectation for Fresno State is that there will be a drop in performance from a season ago. Part of that could be due to the loss of quarterback Derek Carr, who threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns last season. That kind of production is going to be hard to replace, especially for a mid-major talent. However, Fresno's location in California may allow them to reload easier than a mid-major school in Idaho. This game is on the road, so I'm expecting Fresno State to hang in the game for longer than most of us would like to see. But, the loss of Carr and an improving Husker defense should allow us to win this game on the road.
Nebraska should win this game, but it might be close. Confidence: 7.5/10
Miami
- 2013-14 wins: 9 wins
- Pythagorean expectation: 8.262 wins
- Difference: 0.738 wins
The Hurricanes were termed one of the surprise teams last season when they beat then #12 ranked Florida 21-16. But injuries hampered the Canes's season as they struggled against North Carolina and Wake Forest before losing three straight to Florida State, Duke, and Virginia Tech. Miami rebounded nicely, winning their last two games to save a 9-4 year. Stephen Morris is gone, but running back Duke Johnson returns for the Hurricanes. Johnson is expected to miss spring practice but should be ready for next season. Johnson was a driving force behind Miami's early season success, and he could cause problems for Nebraska's defense. This game is at home, so that should give Nebraska better odds.
Nebraska should win this game, but it might be close. Confidence: 6.5/10
Illinois
- 2013-14 wins: 4 wins
- Pythagorean expectation: 4.759 wins
- Difference: -0.759 wins
The Illini return to Lincoln in 2014 after losing to the Huskers 39-19 last season. According to the projection, there shouldn't be much of a difference from the Illini team that was on the field last year. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase leaves the team, handing the reins over to Riley O'Toole, who only attempted 16 passes last season. The Illini also lose leading receiver Steven Hull, but return leading rusher Josh Ferguson. At Memorial Stadium, Nebraska should do enough to win this game.
Nebraska should win this game. Confidence 8.5/10
Michigan State
- 2013-14 wins: 13 wins
- Pythagorean expectation: 12.165 wins
- Difference: 0.835 wins
Michigan State experienced a magical turnaround from their 2012-13 season in which they went 7-6 last year, losing a slew of close games. FYI, Michigan State's difference in wins versus expected wins was -1.042 wins, signaling a potential for improvement the following season (2013-2014). Lo and behold, the Spartans won the conference, won the Rose Bowl, and won 13 games on the year. And there isn't any indication of a free fall back to .500. This game is in East Lansing, and it will be tough for the Huskers to win this game.
I'm not giving Nebraska much of a chance to win this game. Confidence: 2.5/10
Northwestern
- 2013-14 wins: 5 wins
- Pythagorean expectation: 5.755 wins
- Difference: -0.755 wins
Talk about a nightmare season for Wildcat fans, enduring injury after injury and suffering close loss after close loss. Especially after winning their first bowl game in 50+ years, the season Northwestern had was excruciatingly difficult to endure. Northwestern's difference in wins versus their expectation last season was -1.009, which projected the Wildcats to have a worse season than last year; but nobody could have expected a 5 win drop. Heading into this year, Northwestern loses quarterback Kain Colter, but will return running back Venric Mark who didn't face the Huskers last year. The game is in Evanston, which should help Northwestern, but not enough in my opinion to make a difference.
Nebraska should win this one, but it might be close. Confidence: 7/10.
Rutgers
- 2013-14 wins: 6 wins
- Pythagorean expectations: 5.621 wins
- Difference: 0.379 wins
New to the Big Ten, Nebraska will face Rutgers for the first time in 94 years and the second time in school history. Rutgers, based on their projection, shouldn't be much better nor worse than the 6 wins they accumulated last year. Quarterback Gary Nova returns for the Scarlet Knights, and he poses a mobile threat. But Nova appears to be as turnover prone as a freshman Taylor Martinez. The Huskers will face the Scarlet Knights at Memorial Stadium and shouldn't have too difficult of a time improving to 2-0 all time against Rutgers.
Nebraska should win this one. Confidence 8/10
Purdue
- 2013-14 wins: 1 win
- Pythagorean expectation: 1.180 wins
- Difference: -0.180 wins
Purdue endured a difficult season under new head coach Darrell Hazell, managing just 1 win. The Boilermakers lost 44-7 against the Huskers last season. The difference doesn't indicate much of an improvement, and any improvement in wins shouldn't come at the hands of a victory in Lincoln. Probably one of the easiest win on the Husker's schedule.
Nebraska should win this one. Confidence: 10/10
Wisconsin
- 2013-14 wins: 9 wins
- Pythagorean expectation: 11.155 wins
- Difference: -2.155 wins
Wisconsin played normal Wisconsin football under new head coach Gary Andersen last season: run the ball and play physical defense; and the projection (and reality [i.e. Arizona State]) indicates that they were rather unlucky to end the season with 9 wins. The staggering difference means that Wisconsin could be poised to have a big year next season. Quarterback Joel Stave as well as running back Melvin Gordon return for the Badgers, and Wisconsin has always played tough defense no matter who they lose. A pivotal game in the West division and in Madison, Wisconsin takes this one.
Nebraska doesn't win this game. Confidence: 2/10.
Minnesota
- 2013-14 wins: 8 wins
- Pythagorean wins: 7.604 wins
- Difference: 0.396 wins
The most disappointing loss from last year, Minnesota comes to Nebraska looking to win back to back games against the Huskers for the first time since 1954. According the projection, Minnesota should bring roughly the same team to Lincoln next season that the Huskers faced this season. It will be a physical game, but if Nebraska can limit the Gophers's ground attack, the Huskers should win this game.
Nebraska should win this game, but it might be close. Confidence: 6.5/10.
Iowa
- 2013-14 wins: 8 wins
- Pythagorean expectations: 8.916
- Difference: -0.916 wins
The traditional Black Friday matchup, Iowa won in Lincoln 38-17 last season, firmly placing Bo Pelini on the hot seat. Iowa will probably improve on their 8 win season next season. Quarterback Jake Rudock and running back Mark Weisman return for the Hawkeyes and Iowa has always been known for playing tough defense like Wisconsin. At Kinnick, this game will be difficult for Nebraska to win.
I don't know what to expect from this one. Literally, a toss-up. Confidence: 5/10.
For now, give Nebraska losses @ Michigan State and @ Wisconsin, but a win @ Iowa; we've always seemed to have won at least one game we shouldn't each year. However, I think we go undefeated at home on our way to a 10-2 regular season record. 2 conference losses might be enough to keep us out of the conference championship game, but could put us in line for an at-large BCS bid (Michigan, comes to mind).
