4 More Games

Fru said:
11-1 is best case scenario. One regular season loss and a shot at the B1G title, and in all likelihood playing in the biggest bowl game since 2001.

10-2 with competitive losses to UW and OSU would also signal (at least to me anyway) an improvement. Not losing a dumb game to a lesser team a la Iowa St 2009, Northwestern in 2011, Minnesota in 2013 and 2014, or any game from last season. This scenario would also set up a chance at an 11 win season. Something NU hasn't done in 15 years.

9-3 status quo. More of the same. Not bad, not great. No shot at conference title. Lame bowl. Keep hoping that "next year is the year."

8-4 Would be very disappointing.
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Well, after OSU, here are our odds (based on ESPN's FPI)

11-1 0% chance

10-2 24% chance

9-3 48% chance

8-4 25% chance

7-5 3% chance

 
Nebraska's odds of winning w/ 2 conf losses = 24% x 27.8% (odds of Wisc not winning out) = 6.7%

Wisconsin's odds of winning w/ 2 conf. losses = 72.2%

Minnesota's odds of winning w/ 2 conf. losses = 2.9%

That still leaves an 18.2% chance of a 3-loss West Champion!

 
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