-7.5

R

RADAR

Banned
The opening line for Nebraska vs Illinois to start the B10 conference season.

What do you think.. We cover?

 
I don't think the odds makers know what to expect from this team. Is Illinois better than Southern Miss? Who would win that game?

I think the Huskers left a lot of points off the board and will emphasize that going forward (red zone touchdowns). I need to know more about Illinois and their strengths and weaknesses. My initial gut reaction says the Huskers win by 13+. I look forward to saunders matchup thread later in the week.

 
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admo said:
I don't think the odds makers know what to expect from this team. Is Illinois better than Southern Miss? Who would win that game?

I think the Huskers left a lot of points off the board and will emphasize that going forward (red zone touchdowns). I need to know more about Illinois and their strengths and weaknesses. My initial gut reaction says the Huskers win by 13+. I look forward to saunders matchup thread later in the week.
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I'd be shocked if more than 10% picked us to lose, but we can't afford to play like we did in the 4th quarter.

 
Yeah we've been consistent at having an awful quarter (or two) in 3 games so far. Traditionally this looks like a trap game on paper. But I don't think the Huskers are looking past Illinois towards Wisconsin. Maybe if they were undefeated that would be the case. There's just too much for the Huskers to work on to better themselves this week.

Illinois can throw and our weakness is pass coverage. But do they have enough talent built around their QB? Looks like teams can throw on Illinois and run on them too. We should get our 34-40 in this one and they'll probably get 20-24. Close throughout but not too close IMO.

 
admo said:
Yeah we've been consistent at having an awful quarter (or two) in 3 games so far. Traditionally this looks like a trap game on paper. But I don't think the Huskers are looking past Illinois towards Wisconsin. Maybe if they were undefeated that would be the case. There's just too much for the Huskers to work on to better themselves this week.

Illinois can throw and our weakness is pass coverage. But do they have enough talent built around their QB? Looks like teams can throw on Illinois and run on them too. We should get our 34-40 in this one and they'll probably get 20-24. Close throughout but not too close IMO.
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Illinois had looked pretty good in their first 2 games, then got blown out by North Carolina (who use the same pass D scheme we used to). Last week, they struggled with Middle Tennessee State, after MTSU had a big 4th quarter, but the Illini hit a FG with 2 minutes left to win by 2.

Tommy should be able to have a big day in the air, and on the ground.

 
unlfan said:
I once read an article that studied betting patterns. It showed that the public bets on teams that have brand recognition/ bluebloods that have been great in the past (no surprise there). So what does it mean for the bookmakers? It means they take a team like Nebraska, which much of the public remembering the 1990s domincance, and they try to push that line as high as they can while keeping the money on Nebraska. They do this thinking this actual 2015 Nebraska team is not as good as a lot of the public's perception of Nebraska of years past.

The blueblood programs with strong fanbase/brand recognition are giant cash cows for Vegas when they go on a slump (which 100% of them do at some point)
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For sure there is an element to that. Sportsbooks often "take a position" on games rather than simply trying to always balance the money on both sides of the bet.

The blueblood programs often are overvalued. Or even programs who have been successful the last few years but struggling this year. Michigan State, despite being 4-0 has not played very well this year and they're 0-4 against the spread. Alabama is 1-3 ATS, Auburn 0-4, Oregon 1-3, Ohio St. 1-3, Texas 1-2-1.

With that said, I think we cover this week, but I wouldn't take Nebraska unless and until the line drops to -7 or -6.5.

 
The problem is that Illinois has been just as streaky in their play as Nebraska has been - and like Nebraska it hasn't always been game to game but quarter to quarter. Nebraska wins this easily if they come to play for 4 quarters but they haven't shown that yet. I think this game will go to whichever team actually comes out and plays all 4 quarters. Nebraska comes out fast but then loses defensive secondary focus through the middle of the game making it much closer than it should be but ultimately wins by 10.

 
All bets are gambles
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Having said that I'm betting on NU -7 this game. The continued rise of Tommy! (If he gets hurt we are in huge trouble). NU should have it's best starting lineup this year (unless I'm lost on the injury status but whatever we'll cover).

 
unlfan said:
I once read an article that studied betting patterns. It showed that the public bets on teams that have brand recognition/ bluebloods that have been great in the past (no surprise there). So what does it mean for the bookmakers? It means they take a team like Nebraska, which much of the public remembering the 1990s domincance, and they try to push that line as high as they can while keeping the money on Nebraska. They do this thinking this actual 2015 Nebraska team is not as good as a lot of the public's perception of Nebraska of years past.

The blueblood programs with strong fanbase/brand recognition are giant cash cows for Vegas when they go on a slump (which 100% of them do at some point)
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Interesting. But after 16 years, can we still consider not winning anything a slump? I don't think so. We are far beyond a slump.

 
unlfan I'd like to read that article wonder if you can recall enough for a successful Google search?

There is a fact at odds with that idea. Vegas lines are the best predictor compared to dozens of systems. Distorting lines to scalp dumb money would reduce Vegas line predictive results.

Not sure the effect now of online betting. However, local betters often are scalped by local books. Any local better who places such bets proves his ignorance before kickoff.

 
One example....Giants in the Super Bowl. That's a powerful case. /sarc

Vegas does not do this generally (SB is a betting thing of it's own btw...massive dumb money) which is why I was intrigued to read a *solid* case for it. They don't do it because they'd lose. Most of the money would know what's up and beat Vegas on its predictably bad lines. Public perception is irrelevant only bettor perceptions money weighted matters. That money vote is not the same as "the public". The only slight edge sometimes available is home team dogs. NFL and college are rather different too.

 
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This should be a Saturday poll. Huskers win by 7.5 or not. That way we can gauge what kind of board it will be before and after game (keep people honest).

 
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