-7.5

admo said:
This should be a Saturday poll. Huskers win by 7.5 or not. That way we can gauge what kind of board it will be before and after game (keep people honest).
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By being 2-2 in the non-con, Riley has Husker Nation on edge, especially those that thought the hire was questionable. The next two games, Illinois and Wisconsin, are going to be huge for the psyche of the team and fanbase. Lose vs Illinois, and we will be limping into a grudge game vs Wisconsin, which could get ugly. If they beat the Illini and Badgers, we can feel good about the start to B1G play (maybe even overlook the non-con a little). We could even stick our chest out a little as Wisconsin has had our number the last couple of years.
The margin for error is thin right now, based on their record and defensive play.

 
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unlfan said:
No, it happens with some regularity. I looked for one minute and found an example, and you discredit it with "oh, that's just the giants in the superbowl. the superbowl and the nfl are different". They know what teams the public overvalues. Either way, I don't have a dog in this fight, so I don't care if you choose to beleive it or not.
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Sports books don't work that way. At all. It's not a casino. They don't try to make money by having people lose bets, because others would win that take the other side. They don't want to be wrong and then have an upset make them pay a ton out. They want guaranteed income.
They try to balance out the sides by moving the spread and collect on the fees. Fees are guaranteed money.

 
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In the Deed the Glory said:
unlfan said:
No, it happens with some regularity. I looked for one minute and found an example, and you discredit it with "oh, that's just the giants in the superbowl. the superbowl and the nfl are different". They know what teams the public overvalues. Either way, I don't have a dog in this fight, so I don't care if you choose to beleive it or not.
Click to expand...
Sports books don't work that way. At all. It's not a casino. They don't try to make money by having people lose bets, because others would win that take the other side. They don't want to be wrong and then have an upset make them pay a ton out. They want guaranteed income.
They try to balance out the sides by moving the spread and collect on the fees. Fees are guaranteed money.
Click to expand...
You're wrong. In general the casino tries to balance the bets on each side so that they can just collect the vig, but they do regularly take positions in games (taking a position being intentionally having more bets on one side of the bet). If you would like proof, you just have to read the book The Odds, wherein the long time director of the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook, Bob Scucci talks about regularly taking a position on games.

 
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HuskerExpat said:
In the Deed the Glory said:
unlfan said:
No, it happens with some regularity. I looked for one minute and found an example, and you discredit it with "oh, that's just the giants in the superbowl. the superbowl and the nfl are different". They know what teams the public overvalues. Either way, I don't have a dog in this fight, so I don't care if you choose to beleive it or not.
Click to expand...
Sports books don't work that way. At all. It's not a casino. They don't try to make money by having people lose bets, because others would win that take the other side. They don't want to be wrong and then have an upset make them pay a ton out. They want guaranteed income.They try to balance out the sides by moving the spread and collect on the fees. Fees are guaranteed money.
Click to expand...
You're wrong. In general the casino tries to balance the bets on each side so that they can just collect the vig, but they do regularly take positions in games (taking a position being intentionally having more bets on one side of the bet). If you would like proof, you just have to read the book The Odds, wherein the long time director of the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook, Bob Scucci talks about regularly taking a position on games.
Click to expand...
Edit: nevermind, if you want to talk about this more you can pm me. I am not wrong, and neither are you. Books are complicated.

 
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RedRex said:
That's a LOT of $$$ getting dumped on Illinois then...
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For sure, but I was just wondering why. Some forecasts are calling for heavy wind gusts. I guess that means neither team will be able to pass as well and the margin of victory is likely to be lower. I like our ability to run vs Illinois', however.

 
Vegas found out we're wearing all whites...
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