Best/Worst case seasons

[Excel]

Something that Phil Steele does, take all the close games (TD or less) and see the best and worst a team could have done:

Luckiest: Nebraska and Penn State (4 close wins each)

Worst Luck: Northwestern (4 close losses)

Most Close Games: Michigan and Penn State (6 close games each)

Team with the best Best Case Scenario: Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin (12-0 each)

Team with the worst Worst Case Scenario: Purdue (0-12)

Team hurt the worst by its close losses: Michigan State

Illinois

Regular Season Record: 4-8

Close Wins: Purdue 20-16

Close Losses: PSU 17-24, Northwestern 34-37

BC/WC: 6-6, 3-9

Indiana

Regular Season Record: 5-7

Close Wins: None

Close Losses: Navy 35-41, Minnesota 39-42

BC/WC: 7-5, Indiana achieved its worst case scenario

Iowa

Regular Season Record: 8-4

Close Wins: ISU 27-21, Northwestern 17-10, Michigan 24-21

Close Losses: NIU 27-30

BC/WC: 9-3, 5-7

Michigan

Regular Season Record: 7-5

Close Wins: Akron 28-24, UConn 24-21, Northwestern 27-19*

Close Losses: PSU 40-43, NU 13-17, Iowa 21-24,

BC/WC: 10-2, 4-8

Michigan State

Regular Season Record:12-1

Close Wins: None

Close Losses: ND 13-17

BC/WC: 13-0, Michigan State achieved its worst case scenario

Minnesota

Regular Season Record: 8-4

Close Wins: Northwestern 20-17, Indiana 42-39

Close Losses: None

BC/WC: Minnesota achieved its best case scenario, 6-6

Nebraska

Regular Season Record: 8-4

Close Wins: Wyoming 37-34, Northwestern 27-24, Michigan 17-13, PSU 23-20

Close Losses: None

BC/WC: Nebraska achieved its best case scenario, 4-8

Northwestern

Regular Season Record: 5-7

Close Wins: Illinois 37-34

Close Losses: Minnesota 17-20, Iowa 10-17, Nebraska 24-27, Michigan 19-27*

BC/WC: 9-3, 4-8

Ohio State

Regular Season Record: 12-1

Close Wins: Wisconsin 31-24, Michigan 42-41

Close Losses: None

BC/WC: Ohio State achieved its best case scenario, 10-3

Penn State

Regular Season Record: 7-5

Close Wins: Syracuse 23-17, Michigan 43-40, Illinois 24-17, Wisconsin 31-24

Close Losses: UCF 31-34, Nebraska 20-23

BC/WC: 9-3, 3-9

Purdue

Regular Season Record:1-11

Close Wins: Indiana State 20-14

Close Losses: ND 24-31, Illinois 16-20

BC/WC: 3-9, 0-12

Wisconsin

Regular Season Record:9-3

Close Wins: None

Close Losses: ASU 30-32, OSU 24-31, PSU 24-31

BC/WC: 12-0, Wisconsin achieved its worst case scenario

Rutgers

Regular Season Record:6-6

Close Wins: Arkansas 28-24, SMU 55-53, Temple 23-20

Close Losses: Fresno State 51-52

BC/WC: 7-5, 3-9

Maryland

Regular Season Record: 7-5

Close Wins: UVA 27-26, VT 27-24

Close Losses: Boston College 26-29

BC/WC: 8-4, 5-7

Just for fun:

Auburn

Regular Season Record: 12-1

Close Wins: Washington State 31-24, Miss St 24-20, TAMU 45-41, Georgia 43-38, Alabama 34-28

Close Losses: None

BC/WC: 12-1, 7-5

Florida State

Regular Season Record: 13-0

Close Wins: None

Close Losses: None

BC/WC: Florida State achieved both its best and worst possible seasons

Some caveats: Yes I know this is pointless and doesn't show much. The results of close games can be attributed to any number of things; officiating, coaching, skill, chance etc. This is just for fun.

 

[mrandyk]

I don't think I'll ever agree with Michigan State suffering their worst case scenario, and suffering the most from their close losses, when they are 12-1 with the conference title.

 

[Excel]

Their one close loss kept them out of the National Championship picture, no other B1G team can say that. As far as "suffering their worst case scenario" that's where the terminology may be a bit flawed but I mean...Florida State also suffered its worst case scenario and is playing for the national championship.

 

[deedsker]

I don't believe FSU's worst case scenario was going undefeated.

They had the same setup last year and failed to NC State. That has been FSU football for several years now.

 

[HuskerShark]

Their one close loss kept them out of the National Championship picture, no other B1G team can say that. As far as "suffering their worst case scenario" that's where the terminology may be a bit flawed but I mean...Florida State also suffered its worst case scenario and is playing for the national championship.

Ohio State?

 

[Excel]

Their one close loss kept them out of the National Championship picture, no other B1G team can say that. As far as "suffering their worst case scenario" that's where the terminology may be a bit flawed but I mean...Florida State also suffered its worst case scenario and is playing for the national championship.

Ohio State?

Not a close loss.

 

[Coqui]

Their one close loss kept them out of the National Championship picture, no other B1G team can say that. As far as "suffering their worst case scenario" that's where the terminology may be a bit flawed but I mean...Florida State also suffered its worst case scenario and is playing for the national championship.

Ohio State?

Not a close loss.

Run Hyde instead of Miller on that 4th and 1 and the score is either OSU wins by 4 or loses by three.

 

[Excel]

Their one close loss kept them out of the National Championship picture, no other B1G team can say that. As far as "suffering their worst case scenario" that's where the terminology may be a bit flawed but I mean...Florida State also suffered its worst case scenario and is playing for the national championship.

Ohio State?

Not a close loss.

Run Hyde instead of Miller on that 4th and 1 and the score is either OSU wins by 4 or loses by three.

Irrelevant. They lost by 10. Not a close loss for these purposes.

 

[mrandyk]

Their one close loss kept them out of the National Championship picture, no other B1G team can say that. As far as "suffering their worst case scenario" that's where the terminology may be a bit flawed but I mean...Florida State also suffered its worst case scenario and is playing for the national championship.

Ohio State?

Not a close loss.

Run Hyde instead of Miller on that 4th and 1 and the score is either OSU wins by 4 or loses by three.

Scoreboard is the only mark that matters. MSU with the blowout.