GAME OF THE WEEK
Missouri (7-0) at Nebraska (6-1) Oct. 30, 3:30, ABC
Here’s The Deal … For 26 straight years from 1979 to 2004, Nebraska dominated Missouri. This wasn’t a rivalry, since there have to be two sides to form one, and then Missouri got good. Really good. The Tigers have had their moments against the Huskers with blowout wins in 2005, 2007, and 2008, but because it’s still Nebraska, and because it’s still Missouri, there’s always going to be an assumption that things will restore back to the old ways. Forget that the 2010 Tigers just beat the No. 1 team in the nation, and forget that Nebraska lost at home to a miserable Texas team, getting exposed along the way by a defense that wanted to play, it’s just assumed that this is where the fun ends. Missouri loses, Nebraska wins, Nebraska goes on to play for the Big 12 title before leaving for the Big Ten, and Missouri is left to hope for an at-large BCS game. There. Clean, easy, and simple.
Maybe not.
This Missouri team doesn’t have the superstar power of the Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman version, but this is a more complete, tougher team. Those Tiger teams tended to melt down with things got tight against the better teams, but this year’s version is on an even keel with a veteran, swarming defense and an unflappable quarterback in Blaine Gabbert who doesn’t try to do everything himself. Yes, the Missouri Tigers really are good enough to be in the hunt for the national title. Nebraska is pretty good, too.
A week after getting pantsed by the Longhorns, Nebraska and Taylor Martinez decided to play a little offense, rolling up 51 points to end Oklahoma State’s unbeaten season. With road trips at Iowa State and Texas A&M, along with home dates against Kansas and Colorado, this is it. Missouri is the one road block between the Huskers and the Big 12 title, and while the national championship would be a tough sell considering how bad Texas is and because the game is at home, it could get close. Missouri also gets relatively smooth sailing with road trips to Texas Tech and Iowa State along with a home game with Kansas State and a neutral site game against Kansas. In other words, welcome to the 2010 Big 12 North Championship. You’ll miss this next year.
Why Missouri Might Win: Nebraska faced one defense with any measure of talent, and it failed. Oklahoma State has one of the worst defenses in America, but it’s the 2000 Baltimore Ravens compared to Kansas State and its 118th ranked run defense, Washington and the nation’s 104th ranked run defense, Idaho and the 85th ranked run D, and Western Kentucky and the 93rd ranked run defense. Texas, for all its problems, is sixth in the nation in total defense and 30th against the run with an aggressive front line and a fast enough back seven to keep Martinez and the Husker runners from turning small runs into backbreaking home runs. Missouri’s defense is better. The Tigers have allowed just 92 points all year and have been dominant against everyone’s offensive front. Last week, they were able to clamp down on the Oklahoma backs DeMarco Murray (49 yards) and Roy Finch (59 yards), and while Landry Jones wasn’t under a ton of pressure, he didn’t have too many places to go with the ball. He threw for 303 yards, but there were plenty of mid-range throws. Martinez is coming off a great game against Oklahoma State, but he’s not the passer that Jones is.
Why Nebraska Might Win: Missouri’s defense is terrific, and it’s going to be playing a half-step faster in a game like this, but it hasn’t faced a slew of top running teams. As great as Murray and the Sooner backs are, the OU offense is based on the passing game. San Diego State got a 228-yard day out of Ronnie Hillman and Illinois provided a possible glimpse of what’s about to come as QB Nathan Scheelhaase, in his first game, ran for 76 yards and Mikel Leshoure ran for 112. Defensively, Nebraska’s secondary got beaten up by Oklahoma State last week for 283 yards, but 80 of them came on a trick flea-flicker. Brandon Weeden only completed 18-of-35 passes, but at least he had Kendall Hunter to take the heat off with 201 rushing yards. Blaine Gabbert doesn’t have that, and with the way the Huskers make great quarterbacks (Washington’s Jake Locker and Idaho’s Nathan Enderle) look silly, it could be a long day for the Mizzou offense.
What To Watch Out For: Missouri dominated last year’s game in Columbia for three quarters, and then the turnovers started to come and the Huskers pounced in a rain-soaked fourth quarter. Roy Helu, who has taken a backseat to Martinez this year, took control was tough 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. A bit out of the mix over the last two weeks with Texas clamping down and the Oklahoma State game a shootout, he’s overdue to come up with a big performance. He has 500 rushing yards on the year with five touchdowns with three 100-yard games, and while he’s not normally a workhorse, he might be this week. Helping the Husker rushing game should be the absence of a key piece of the Tiger run defense. Nose tackle Dominique Hamilton was lost for the year in the Oklahoma game with a broken ankle, and it’s going to take a steady rotation of players to try to replace him on a full-time basis.
What Will Happen: Nebraska’s pass defense is going to make Blaine Gabbert look silly, it always does that to top quarterbacks, and Missouri’s run defense is going to hold surprisingly firm against Martinez and the running game. This will be a sloppy game with a few too many turnovers, lots of stalled drives, and few explosive drives. Missouri will drip, drip, drip its way to points, staying alive on field position and a few Grant Ressel bombs, and then Martinez will make two critical late mistakes, throwing a pick to end one drive and misfiring on another as the Tigers sneak away with a very, very hard win.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 19 … Nebraska 16 … Line: Nebraska -7
Must See Rating: NBA Opening Night – 5 … Teen Mom -1 … 5
