Kansas State (6-5) at Nebraska (7-3), 7:45 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: When college football fans like to throw out the “every game matters” cliché, it truly applies to this week’s game for Kansas State. The Wildcats have hit the six-win mark, but thanks to poor scheduling, playing two FCS teams (UMass and Tennessee Tech) and with a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette in what was supposed to be a cupcake game, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Not only will they get a 13th game with a win, but they’ll get a 14th as the North representative in the Big 12 Championship. Missouri or Iowa State could technically tie for the title, but KSU and Nebraska win all the tie-breakers. For the Huskers, a win would mean a trip back to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2006, and it would be a tremendous next step in the Bo Pelini era. Thanks to a stifling defense, the Huskers are on a three-game winning streak, with the D playing well in a loss to Iowa State before the run of wins. Because of Pelini and the D, Nebraska has a shot at giving Texas a hard time in the championship game, but first comes the must-win game against Bill Snyder’s resilient squad. The Huskers still have to play Colorado next Friday, but that game won’t matter for anything more than the bowl pecking order.
Why Kansas State might win: For Kansas State to pull this off, all the periphery parts need to be working and all the breaks need to go their way. Brandon Banks needs to come up with a big kick return or three, and KSU has to be +2, at the very minimum, in turnover margin and might have to be around +4 if the running game isn’t working. That’s a possibility considering the Wildcats are 19th in the nation and second in the Big 12 in turnover margin helped by 24 takeaways, and Nebraska has been disastrous at times turning the ball over. Overall, Nebraska hasn’t been too bad, with eight of the 23 turnovers coming in the loss to Iowa State, but there will be a few fumble chances and KSU has to pounce on every one of them.
Why Nebraska might win: This is an awful matchup for Kansas State. The Huskers can be beaten by a decent passing game and nice offensive balance, if everything is working, but they’re great at stomping strong running games. Virginia Tech was held to just 86 yards on the ground, and only Iowa State has gained more than 100 yards rushing against the Huskers in the last six games. The swarming defensive front should be all over Daniel Thomas from the start, meaning Grant Gregory and the KSU passing game will have to be effective early. They won’t be. On the other side, KSU doesn’t generate enough pressure to bother …
Who to watch: … Nebraska junior QB Zac Lee, who was benched for a stretch but came back to have an efficient, effective 13-of-21, 196-yard, 53-yard rushing day in last week’s win over Kansas. He wasn’t being blamed by the coaching staff for the team’s offensive problems, but he threw three interceptions in the loss to Iowa State and the team was looking for a spark. Cody Green was fine, but with a possible North title looming, it wasn’t time to experiment with a true freshman under center. Lee doesn’t have to be Drew Brees, but he needs to keep the turnover to a minimum, as in none, and he has to do just enough to keep the heat off Roy Helu and the running game. The Nebraska defense can win this game; it’s up to Lee to not get in the way.
What will happen: The Husker defense will pitch a near-perfect game to overcome a shaky performance from the offense. The turnaround won’t be complete under Pelini, but it’ll be a big step forward.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 24 … Kansas State 9 ... Line: Nebraska -16.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 4.5
