Chatelain: Year-One Collapses

[Mavric]

But first, just how unusual is it to find a coaching transition like Nebraska’s in 2015.


I was curious this week. I wanted to know what happened to teams that fired a coach after a “successful” season — eight regular-season wins or more.

Do they get better or worse in year one? And what happens after that? What I found (no surprise) is that programs don’t fire coaches with good records very often. And when they do, they certainly don’t back up in year one as the Huskers have.

Since 2000, I found five cases similar to this year’s Huskers.

OWH

Didn't figure I should quote the whole thing so you can go read it for yourself.

Cliffs Notes: All five got significantly worse in the first year. A couple got marginally better somewhere in years 2-4 but all were fired (or resigned) in 3-6 years except Charlie Strong who isn't looking really great in year two.

Kind of backs up what I've said since long before the season started. At first glance these may be cited as evidence of transition year issues. But it's more likely that having such a bad year in your first year simply means you're not going to get it done.

 

[cm husker]

I did some similar research back in '04. As I recall, no national championship winning coach has ever taken a program over and had a worse first season than his predecessor's last.

 

[Saunders]

IIRC, 20 out of 25 coaches in the final top 25 poll of 2014 had same or better year one records than their predecessor.

 

[Undone]

At first glance these may be cited as evidence of transition year issues. But it's more likely that having such a bad year in your first year simply means you're not going to get it done.

Agreed.

 

[flfmrredfan]

It would be interesting to know the career records of those coaches Chatelain looked at. Were any of them .500 career coaches like Riley?

 

[SuperBigFan69]

At first glance these may be cited as evidence of transition year issues. But it's more likely that having such a bad year in your first year simply means you're not going to get it done.

Agreed.

Yeah...but NONE of those first year coaches had to deal with the ___________ (insert crazy word/phrase) that Riley has had to deal with...NONE

 

[olddominionhusker]

At first glance these may be cited as evidence of transition year issues. But it's more likely that having such a bad year in your first year simply means you're not going to get it done.

Agreed.

Yeah...but NONE of those first year coaches had to deal with the ___________ (insert crazy word/phrase) that Riley has had to deal with...NONE

Of course not. No coach in history has faced the extreme conditions and adversity facing MR here. I thought everyone knew that

 

[cm husker]

People claimed that Callahan had to deal with the _______.

Remember the Pederson Elevator Ride picture?

Solich and his staff left NU with a terrible culture... right? Remember when Perly said the program "just looked tired" to him?

 

[huskerfan92]

It would be interesting to know the career records of those coaches Chatelain looked at. Were any of them .500 career coaches like Riley?

Wannstedt had a .485 winning percentage, hearing him talk on that Big 10 Live show is rough, the guy does not come off as very smart

Edsall was 4 games above .500

Callahan was just under .500

Strong and Rich Rod had great records, but weren't exactly warmly received by the higher ups making it an uncomfortable feeling during their tenure.

 

[Undone]

Yeah...but NONE of those first year coaches had to deal with the ___________ (insert crazy word/phrase) that Riley has had to deal with...NONE

That kind of reinforces the point though, doesn't it? It takes someone *really* special to come into Lincoln and bring championship football back here. That was (part of) Eichorst's stated goal.

It seems to me that Riley isn't that guy. I love the guy. I just don't think he's very good at putting together a staff, plan, and recruiting system to win championships in Lincoln. And I might end up being wrong; really hope so.

 

[beorach]

It's certainly not a good sign...and you had to wonder about how the hire was made when the Oregon State fans weren't exactly thrilled about the guy. If he's not good enough for them and Nebraska is a greater program then...? I am more inclined to listen to folks who take this measured approach as opposed to making definitive statements on the future with Riley. This isn't some video game and we just put in another coach. So many people act like he should just be doing things the way they know they need to be done...but a coach trying to run a system he's not familiar with would probably always be worse than a a coach trying to teach players to run his system...especially when you're talking about sacrificing progress in the long term with the former.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

Yeah...but NONE of those first year coaches had to deal with the ___________ (insert crazy word/phrase) that Riley has had to deal with...NONE

That kind of reinforces the point though, doesn't it? It takes someone *really* special to come into Lincoln and bring championship football back here. That was (part of) Eichorst's stated goal.

It seems to me that Riley isn't that guy. I love the guy. I just don't think he's very good at putting together a staff, plan, and recruiting system to win championships in Lincoln. And I might end up being wrong; really hope so.

I hear that!