My path to the National Championship game:
1. BigTen. We win out, we're ahead of every team in our conference.
2. Pac12 - - WAY too much parity. The only team with a chance of coming out with one loss is Oregon.
3. SEC - - Same as Pac12. The Mississippi schools will fall on their faces when the pressure mounts. Nobody from the Eastern Division is getting to the CCG without two loses. If this is Georgia, they will face the lone team (if any) from the West with one loss. If Georgia wins, the entire SEC has two losses. If the West Division team wins, that virtually ensures that they are the only team in conference with one loss. No way a team with two losses, that didn't even play for the SEC title, passes a Nebraska team with one loss who just beat #3 Ohio State for the title.
4. ACC. Winston won't play the whole season. FSU has barely gotten by with him. They will lose two games before season's end. I see potential losses against Notre Dame, Louisville, and Miami. Also, Boston College, Virginia, and even Florida have a chance. FSU has clunked along all season. No reason they couldn't lose two games. If they had been winning games 63-3 the entire season, then this prediction would be folly. However, they should have already lost to Clemson, and darn near lost to NC State. They are completely vulnerable.
5. Big12. Too much parity. However, Baylor is a beast. If they win out, that means Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and K-State have (at a minimum) two losses. TCU will lose somewhere else, as well. In short, only Baylor is coming out of here.
6. Notre Dame. They almost lost to North Carolina. They're not that good. Have you seen them? FSU, USC, Arizona State, and Louisville could easily turn into two losses.
Under this scenario, the top 4 would be Baylor, SEC champ, Oregon, and Us. In a year where there is no true dominant team, this scenario is not unrealistic IF we win out. And yes, that's a fairly big "if" but the pathway is there if we take care of business.