Could Nebraska Make The Playoff this year? Any chance with total domination from here on out?

[skersfan]

Why would a 1 loss Big 12 team let Nebraska/Michigan State or Ohio State move ahead.

They would have beaten at least 2 top ten team and lost to a top 10 team. No way a 1 loss big 10 team would go in front. They have beaten no one out of conference that is ranked. Not going to happen.

I do not think in this playoff system, when you lose is going to make that big of difference when playing against top teams.

 

[JTrain]

There's no way the committee will leave out a power five conference champion in the first year of the playoff.

The last two spots will come down to four teams:

the winner of the Pac-12 (where everyone already has one loss),

the winner of the Big XII (who has no championship game).

the winner of the B1G (where everyone already has one loss),

and Notre Dame, who is currently undefeated.

Well there are only four spots, so they will certainly leave out a conference champion. And there's no reason they wouldn't leave out two, if one non champion is clearly more impressive. A 12-1 team with one top 25 win (maybe barely two with the addition of something like #25 Iowa) is not going to beat out an 11-1 team with five top 25 wins, just because the former technically won a conference (ie. went 1-1 vs. Michigan St.).

In addition, Nebraska would certainly not beat out:

One-loss ND

One-loss Oregon (champ)

One-loss FSU (champ)

One-loss Baylor (champ)

One-loss OU (champ)

One-loss TCU (champ)

One-loss Okie St (champ)

Every one of those teams are not only currently ranked higher, but also have more impressive remaining schedules than Nebraska. So even if the committee refused to put two teams from the same conference in the playoff, multiple of the above teams would need two losses. The chances of that happening? Perhaps around 1%.

 

[BigRedBuster]

There's no way the committee will leave out a power five conference champion in the first year of the playoff.

The last two spots will come down to four teams:

the winner of the Pac-12 (where everyone already has one loss),

the winner of the Big XII (who has no championship game).

the winner of the B1G (where everyone already has one loss),

and Notre Dame, who is currently undefeated.

Well there are only four spots, so they will certainly leave out a conference champion. And there's no reason they wouldn't leave out two, if one non champion is clearly more impressive. A 12-1 team with one top 25 win (maybe barely two with the addition of something like #25 Iowa) is not going to beat out an 11-1 team with five top 25 wins, just because the former technically won a conference (ie. went 1-1 vs. Michigan St.).

In addition, Nebraska would certainly not beat out:

One-loss ND

One-loss Oregon (champ)

One-loss FSU (champ)

One-loss Baylor (champ)

One-loss OU (champ)

One-loss TCU (champ)

One-loss Okie St (champ)

Every one of those teams are not only currently ranked higher, but also have more impressive remaining schedules than Nebraska. So even if the committee refused to put two teams from the same conference in the playoff, all of the above teams would need two losses. The chances of that happening? Perhaps around 0.01%.

Here is what drives me crazy about the bolded statement. More impressive based on what?

It is absurd to look at schedules and say...well...team A beat team B so that makes them more impressive than team C because they only beat team D. That argument gets blown up every single season what a team D goes and then beats a team A. Ever hear of upsets? Do those happen every year?

The only way I could see taking a non conference champion over a conference champion is if that non champion already beat the champion. So, let's say Oregon is not the Champion of the Pac 12. They might get in over MSU because they have already beat them head to head.

 

[skersfan]

You got across in a matter of seconds what I have been trying to say for days. Good Post. +1 ed ya. Do not give many of those.

 

[JTrain]

Here is what drives me crazy about the bolded statement. More impressive based on what?

It is absurd to look at schedules and say...well...team A beat team B so that makes them more impressive than team C because they only beat team D. That argument gets blown up every single season what a team D goes and then beats a team A. Ever hear of upsets? Do those happen every year?

The only way I could see taking a non conference champion over a conference champion is if that non champion already beat the champion. So, let's say Oregon is not the Champion of the Pac 12. They might get in over MSU because they have already beat them head to head.

More impressive based on the facts. The best systems we have in place to rate teams are unbiased systems that are able to do calculations based on tens of thousands of connections between all 128 FBS teams. These systems will all have, for example, an 11-1 Miss St. team far ahead of a 12-1 Nebraska team because Miss St will have played many teams that rank far higher than those Nebraska played. I don't understand what is difficult to comprehend about that. Your second line of "argument" is incoherent. Upsets are all factored into the system. There is no need to throw out the system because upsets happen.

Also, conference championship games are arbitrary games created for money. Sometimes they are necessary and break ties (like last year's B1G game) but often they do not. They do not tell us anything more about teams than any other game of the season, but they are given arbitrary added value because they are at the end and labeled "championship" games. If, say, 5-3 Florida plays 8-0 Alabama in the CCG and Florida wins (after losing to Alabama in the regular season), do I think Florida is the most accomplished team in SEC play for that season? Not even close. They finish 6-3 while Alabama finishes 8-1. And the teams are 1-1 head to tead, Florida gets a trophy because of the label.

 

[HuskerinSunDiego]

In addition, Nebraska would certainly not beat out:

One-loss ND

One-loss Oregon (champ)

One-loss FSU (champ)

One-loss Baylor (champ)

One-loss OU (champ)

One-loss TCU (champ)

One-loss Okie St (champ)

Baylor, OU, TCU, and OK State all play each other. No possible way for all four end with one loss. Maybe one of these teams ends with 1 loss.

 

[skersfan]

Of course there is.

Baylor loses to Oklahoma

That gives you at least three.

Oklahoma State could play into it to. But it would take Oklahoma out.

but likely two of them will have one loss and possibly one without a loss.

And even with two losses they might end ahead of Nebraska due to strength of schedule. Cupcakes have to go away with the playoff. They will hurt you almost as bad as a loss I think.

 

[JTrain]

In addition, Nebraska would certainly not beat out:

One-loss ND

One-loss Oregon (champ)

One-loss FSU (champ)

One-loss Baylor (champ)

One-loss OU (champ)

One-loss TCU (champ)

One-loss Okie St (champ)

Baylor, OU, TCU, and OK State all play each other. No possible way for all four end with one loss. Maybe one of these teams ends with 1 loss.

I did not mean they would all have one loss. I meant, independently, Nebraska would not pass any of them as Big 12 champion with one-loss. Of course, there is a chance that Nebraska could be behind two of them (12-0 Baylor and 11-1 TCU). Or even three, if there is a three-way tie in the Big 12 and a Rock-Paper-Scissors instance (11-1 Baylor beat 11-1 TCU beat 11-1 Oklahoma beat 11-1 Baylor). I don't think anyone is going to make Nebraska jump two of those teams just because one of them is awarded the conference via tiebreaker rules.

 

[JTrain]

The short answer is, of course it's mathematically possible, but it's highly unlikely.

It's too bad we hadn't come out and punched MSU in the mouth. We would have been top ten and right in the thick of things.

Anyway, if we can go 12-1 and play in a "BCS" bowl (Orange, Cotton, Peach, Fiesta) that would be huge.

 

[Abdullah the Butcher]

I don't see any possibility unless it's a 2007 all hell breaks loose year. We play no marquee games the rest of the year, our best hope would be a highly rated Ohio State in the B1G title game. Urban's team still carries more cachet than Sparty but even with a win I don't see Nebraska higher than 5th.

 

[Landlord]

I don't see any possibility unless it's a 2007 all hell breaks loose year. We play no marquee games the rest of the year, our best hope would be a highly rated Ohio State in the B1G title game. Urban's team still carries more cachet than Sparty but even with a win I don't see Nebraska higher than 5th.

A scenario like this is entirely plausible:

1. Florida State (13-0) ACC Champs

2. Ole Miss (12-1) SEC Champs

3. Oklahoma (11-1) Big XII Champs

4. Nebraska (12-1) B1G Champs

5. USC (11-2) PAC-12 Champs

Basically, we'd need to win out, and have another P5 conference champion have two losses. If something like this plays out, then that takes care of:

Notre Dame (10-2 w/ losses to FSU and USC)

Baylor (10-2 w/ losses to OU and Okie State/K-State)

TCU (10-2 w/ losses to Baylor and Okie State)

Okie State (10-2 w/ losses to FSU and OU)

Mississippi State (11-2 w/ losses to Bama and Ole Miss)

Georgia (10-3 w/ loss to SC and Ole Miss in championship game)

Auburn (11-2 w/ losses to Miss St. and Bama)

Bama (11-2 w/ losses to Ole Miss and LSU)

Ohio State

Michigan State

Arizona (same division as USC)

Arizona State (same division as USC)

there's a few teams that could I guess make at-large runs but if it played out that way we'd be on the inside, imo.

 

[Abdullah the Butcher]

I don't see any possibility unless it's a 2007 all hell breaks loose year. We play no marquee games the rest of the year, our best hope would be a highly rated Ohio State in the B1G title game. Urban's team still carries more cachet than Sparty but even with a win I don't see Nebraska higher than 5th.

A scenario like this is entirely plausible:

1. Florida State (13-0) ACC Champs

2. Ole Miss (12-1) SEC Champs

3. Oklahoma (11-1) Big XII Champs

4. Nebraska (12-1) B1G Champs

5. USC (11-2) PAC-12 Champs

Basically, we'd need to win out, and have another P5 conference champion have two losses. If something like this plays out, then that takes care of:

Notre Dame (10-2 w/ losses to FSU and USC)

Baylor (10-2 w/ losses to OU and Okie State/K-State)

TCU (10-2 w/ losses to Baylor and Okie State)

Okie State (10-2 w/ losses to FSU and OU)

Mississippi State (11-2 w/ losses to Bama and Ole Miss)

Georgia (10-3 w/ loss to SC and Ole Miss in championship game)

Auburn (11-2 w/ losses to Miss St. and Bama)

Bama (11-2 w/ losses to Ole Miss and LSU)

Ohio State

Michigan State

Arizona (same division as USC)

Arizona State (same division as USC)

there's a few teams that could I guess make at-large runs but if it played out that way we'd be on the inside, imo.

I think two SEC west teams are getting in, especially if it's one loss. Could be both Mississippi schools or Auburn/Alabama winner.

 

[JTrain]

Notre Dame (10-2 w/ losses to FSU and USC)

Baylor (10-2 w/ losses to OU and Okie State/K-State)

TCU (10-2 w/ losses to Baylor and Okie State)

Okie State (10-2 w/ losses to FSU and OU)

Mississippi State (11-2 w/ losses to Bama and Ole Miss)

Georgia (10-3 w/ loss to SC and Ole Miss in championship game)

Auburn (11-2 w/ losses to Miss St. and Bama)

Bama (11-2 w/ losses to Ole Miss and LSU)

Ohio State

Michigan State

Arizona (same division as USC)

Arizona State (same division as USC)

That's a nice Rubik's cube you put together, my friend. You'd have to go back to late 2001 to see that type of craziness coming together.

 

[Redux]

Okay I'm gonna throw my last two cents at this and be done with this thread. The question was: "If Nebraska kicks a$$/runs the table and blasts Sparty in the title game, can they make the playoff?"

Yes. at 12-1 Nebraska would definitely be a candidate for the playoff. To say there is no way Nebraska could get in with a loss the way this season is unfolding is silly. Maybe we get left out because there are other higher ranked conference champs or Notre Dame, whatever. But still YES Nerbaska can still get in with that record.

 

[skersfan]

Is there a chance the sun won't come up in the morning. Yes there is. About the same.