Special teams and turnovers will define the season. All the other stuff is nice, but until we can do more than fair catch a punt, and not turn it over 2-3 times a game, we'll still be the same team.
Don't forget penalty and penalty yard differential. Between the bad field position differential, either brought upon by poor returns or turnovers, and penalty yards, we've been digging ourselves a hole for years.
For the most part, penalties are overrated. in 2013, NU's penalties per game was the lowest it's been in almost 10 years. If you look at the national rankings, the top 25 teams are all over the map.
Things like false starts on a 3rd & 2, or a PI on 3rd down can certainly have an effect on the outcome, but this past year it wasn't very common, especially when compared to years past.