ESPN FPI Says 5.5-6.5 for the Huskers

I remember when Kirk Herbstreit said Scott Frost would end up at Florida. That was another ESPN prediction.

 
Husker John said:
I remember when Kirk Herbstreit said Scott Frost would end up at Florida. That was another ESPN prediction.
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While he was wrong about that prediction, ESPN was agonizingly right about how poorly Nebraska would do in 2017.  In fact, we were measurably worse than even their FPI indicated.  Whether this is a "broken clock" phenomenon or actual foresight predictions... :dunno

I know some Nebraska fans have an "ESPN hates us" mentality and maybe they do.  Or, and I'm just tossing idea out there, that maybe their criticisms and predictions that we're not (or won't be) very good stems from the past 7 years of on the field performance.  Just my "mentally ill" thoughts.

:ahhhhhhhh

 
The problem is that the FPI is done by a computer, so, don't get mad at some metric that every other FBS team is measured by.  I heard an interview the other day on Hail Varsity -- part of the algorithm is "did you lose a coach", and if so, assume there will be a step back.  It also takes into account the past 4 or 5 years in terms of performance -- looking for consistency, with most recent being weighted most heavily, along with the obvious metric of -- returning starters.  With returning QB weighted more than other returning starters.  Then, to some extent it takes into account recruiting.  Having a highly ranked class does imply better FPI.  However, if you have highly rated players, it's assumed that even if they weren't starters, they probably played a decent enough amount of snaps, so that gets a team a small bump.  Then, of course, the schedule....

So - taking all that into account, and taking any of personal bias out of it, i can see how we've arrived at this prediction.

All that said, I think the computer will likely be wrong, as it was last year, but this time in our favor.  Dumb computers need to add the "Frost Effect plugin".

 
Dilly Dilly said:
The problem is that the FPI is done by a computer, so, don't get mad at some metric that every other FBS team is measured by.  I heard an interview the other day on Hail Varsity -- part of the algorithm is "did you lose a coach", and if so, assume there will be a step back.  It also takes into account the past 4 or 5 years in terms of performance -- looking for consistency, with most recent being weighted most heavily, along with the obvious metric of -- returning starters.  With returning QB weighted more than other returning starters.  Then, to some extent it takes into account recruiting.  Having a highly ranked class does imply better FPI.  However, if you have highly rated players, it's assumed that even if they weren't starters, they probably played a decent enough amount of snaps, so that gets a team a small bump.  Then, of course, the schedule....

So - taking all that into account, and taking any of personal bias out of it, i can see how we've arrived at this prediction.

All that said, I think the computer will likely be wrong, as it was last year, but this time in our favor.  Dumb computers need to add the "Frost Effect plugin".
Click to expand...


The "Frost Effect" plug-in...I like it!

:lol:

:thumbs

 
I am making a trip to a road game for the first time since Mizzou in '07 to see NU in Columbus in November.

That night, I will be content if we make Ohio State punt for the first time in 3 years.  :D

Every other game I would be surprised if each is not competitive.  I expect close games all year with way more fight than has been shown in a long time.

 
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