knapplc
International Man of Mystery
I'm hoping this topic looks silly at the end of November, but it's worth asking about.
We're 2-1 on the season. We NEED to get to a bowl game this year. The premise of this thread is that a 6-6 season won't guarantee a bowl bid. We need seven wins.
That said, where are the other five wins on the schedule? How hard will it be to get there? Or if this is crazy-pants talk, tell me we've got this in the bag.
For the record, based on the first 1/4 of the season, I see it panning out like this:
Illinois - Win
Ohio State - Loss
Northwestern - Win
Minnesota - Win
Indiana - Win
Purdue - Win
Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland - Win
Iowa - Loss
I have pretty good confidence picking wins for: Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana. Illinois being the most confident, with Minnesota and Indiana being basically "pretty sure." I think we out-talent these teams enough that unless we royally screw up, we're not going to lose.
I have pretty good confidence picking losses against: Ohio State, Wisconsin & Iowa. The Buckeyes just have too much talent, and Day has gotten their ducks in a row after last year's curious malaise under Urban. I think Wisconsin & Iowa are still just too good at what they do, too good at playing error-free ball, and too good at finishing games for me to be confident in a win. But I'm less confident we'll lose to these two than to Ohio State.
That leaves Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland. I think we can beat all of these teams - should beat them. But nothing is ever easy against Northwestern, and we've lost to them three of the last four years. With Purdue, I'm just more confident in what Brohm is doing there than I am with what Fleck is doing at Minnesota, and that gives me pause. Plus with it being a road game just before Wisconsin, maybe we overlook them. Still, we have a Bye between Purdue & Wisconsin, so maybe that's an unwarranted fear. With Maryland, I just don't know what we're going to see. I don't know how they score 60+ points against two early victims, then lose to Temple. Which team do we see? I think we win, but this is also a potential look-ahead game to Iowa, who comes to Lincoln just six days after this game.
So, basically, I have five wins in the bag - the two we already have, plus Illinois, Minnesota & Indiana. Maybe a couple more from Northwestern, Purdue & Maryland.
I think we're going bowling. It's a question of who we beat to get there.
We're 2-1 on the season. We NEED to get to a bowl game this year. The premise of this thread is that a 6-6 season won't guarantee a bowl bid. We need seven wins.
That said, where are the other five wins on the schedule? How hard will it be to get there? Or if this is crazy-pants talk, tell me we've got this in the bag.
For the record, based on the first 1/4 of the season, I see it panning out like this:
Illinois - Win
Ohio State - Loss
Northwestern - Win
Minnesota - Win
Indiana - Win
Purdue - Win
Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland - Win
Iowa - Loss
I have pretty good confidence picking wins for: Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana. Illinois being the most confident, with Minnesota and Indiana being basically "pretty sure." I think we out-talent these teams enough that unless we royally screw up, we're not going to lose.
I have pretty good confidence picking losses against: Ohio State, Wisconsin & Iowa. The Buckeyes just have too much talent, and Day has gotten their ducks in a row after last year's curious malaise under Urban. I think Wisconsin & Iowa are still just too good at what they do, too good at playing error-free ball, and too good at finishing games for me to be confident in a win. But I'm less confident we'll lose to these two than to Ohio State.
That leaves Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland. I think we can beat all of these teams - should beat them. But nothing is ever easy against Northwestern, and we've lost to them three of the last four years. With Purdue, I'm just more confident in what Brohm is doing there than I am with what Fleck is doing at Minnesota, and that gives me pause. Plus with it being a road game just before Wisconsin, maybe we overlook them. Still, we have a Bye between Purdue & Wisconsin, so maybe that's an unwarranted fear. With Maryland, I just don't know what we're going to see. I don't know how they score 60+ points against two early victims, then lose to Temple. Which team do we see? I think we win, but this is also a potential look-ahead game to Iowa, who comes to Lincoln just six days after this game.
So, basically, I have five wins in the bag - the two we already have, plus Illinois, Minnesota & Indiana. Maybe a couple more from Northwestern, Purdue & Maryland.
I think we're going bowling. It's a question of who we beat to get there.