drfish
Five-Star Recruit
[SIZE=medium]Was curious about point differentials of the last three coaches. (Scores from Wikipedia. Note: the scores for 2014 on three losses are switched.)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Callahan 1st year[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Average point differential all games: -1.9/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Average differential in losses (7): -18.3/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]His last year:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games: -4.5/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses (7) -22.8/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Pelini 1st year[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games + 4.4/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses - 20/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]His last year:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games +11/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses (4) -11.7/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Riley 1st year.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games. +5/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses (7) -2.3/ game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Note: Callahan changeover was the most significant in terms of offense. Pelini's first year the offensive plan and terminology didn't change much, only the defense. Riley's offense shares a lot more with the previous one than BC's did as well, plus he had more tools that fit (e.g., the WR corps) than BC did. The Defensive changeover from Pelini to Riley was the more significant changeover. Also, this analysis is limited by the fact that I made no attempt to account for quality of competition.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Obviously, the stat that is most important is the W-L stat, but from a point differential analysis, there is, I think, something to be optimistic in terms of the chances for next year to be significantly better in the win loss category. I am hoping that a year in the system will make a big difference in overall performance, though as can be seen from the Callahan numbers, more experience in the system is far from a guarantee. You still have to be able to coach. I would expect a jump in overall defensive performance probably led by better pass efficiency defense numbers and probably not quite as good overall rush defense. 9th in yards per game, but around 23rd in yards per attempt. Then again who needs to run a lot against a defense that makes every QB look good. I expect rush yd per game up but yards per attempt may be down a bit (hopefully). Offense, I expect a mild improvement.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Callahan 1st year[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Average point differential all games: -1.9/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Average differential in losses (7): -18.3/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]His last year:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games: -4.5/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses (7) -22.8/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Pelini 1st year[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games + 4.4/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses - 20/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]His last year:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games +11/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses (4) -11.7/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Riley 1st year.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]All games. +5/game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Losses (7) -2.3/ game[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Note: Callahan changeover was the most significant in terms of offense. Pelini's first year the offensive plan and terminology didn't change much, only the defense. Riley's offense shares a lot more with the previous one than BC's did as well, plus he had more tools that fit (e.g., the WR corps) than BC did. The Defensive changeover from Pelini to Riley was the more significant changeover. Also, this analysis is limited by the fact that I made no attempt to account for quality of competition.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Obviously, the stat that is most important is the W-L stat, but from a point differential analysis, there is, I think, something to be optimistic in terms of the chances for next year to be significantly better in the win loss category. I am hoping that a year in the system will make a big difference in overall performance, though as can be seen from the Callahan numbers, more experience in the system is far from a guarantee. You still have to be able to coach. I would expect a jump in overall defensive performance probably led by better pass efficiency defense numbers and probably not quite as good overall rush defense. 9th in yards per game, but around 23rd in yards per attempt. Then again who needs to run a lot against a defense that makes every QB look good. I expect rush yd per game up but yards per attempt may be down a bit (hopefully). Offense, I expect a mild improvement.[/SIZE]
