Hail Varsity Stats Six-Pack: Oregon-Nebraska

[Saunders]

1. Find 4 MinutesI typically pay no attention to time of possession. Old football coaches love it, but programs like Oregon have largely made it irrelevant. Against the Ducks, however, it appears to mean something.

Between 2009 (Chip Kelly’s first year as head coach) and 2015, the Ducks won 84 percent of their games, second-best nationally, while possessing the ball for an average of 26:41. Oregon lost the possession battle on average every game over that span. Round it off and call it 27 minutes for Oregon to 33 minutes for the opponent. That’s the usual Oregon gap, so simply winning the possession battle isn’t enough.

Widen the gap, however, and teams have found a way to beat Oregon. It’s the “best defense is avoiding the Oregon offense” method. In the Ducks’ 15 losses since 2009, Oregon’s average possession time is 23:32 compared to 27:47 in wins. Every team that has beaten the Ducks since 2009 has held at least a 6-minute edge in time of possession, but the average difference in those losses is all the way up at 13 minutes.

So if the average time-of-possession in an Oregon game is 33/27, how does Nebraska find the extra 4 minutes it would take to make that difference something closer to 37/23? The way everyone, including Nebraska linebacker Michael Rose-Ivey, is identifying as Nebraska’s path to victory — run the ball. Take out sacks, which are really clouding the issue in this particular case, and Oregon is giving up 5.42 yards per carry.

Nebraska has shown the willingness in two of its past three games to keep things almost exclusively ground based, but it has arguably never been more important that I think it will be in this one. If Nebraska holds the ball for 36 minutes or more and loses, something crazy probably happened.

Stat to Watch: Nebraska’s time of possession. (Number to hit: 36:30)

http://hailvarsity.com/news/stats-six-pack-oregon-nebraska/2016/09/

 

[Scratchtown]

Such a long winded article for "play championship level defense, and you will beat Oregon"

 

[Saunders]

Such a long winded article for "play championship level defense, and you will beat Oregon"

Well, sure, you could also say "score more points" if you wanna be pedantic. But they're showing which stats actually matter. The stats about Oregon and fast starts are particularly interesting.

 

[Blackshirt96]

Since our depth at DB is so good, I would just make sure the DB's have a few leg cramps. Nothing pisses off a fast pace offense running tempo like a leg cramp.

 

[TAKODA]

I think time of possession is a huge stat for teams who play Oregon. Yes, we need to play solid defense but we also want to keep their Offense off the field as much as possibly. Seriously, Oregons Offense is one that predicates itself by putting the Defense on their heals and not being ready for the snap.

 

[VectorVictor]

Since our depth at DB is so good, I would just make sure the DB's have a few leg cramps. Nothing pisses off a fast pace offense running tempo like a leg cramp.

I fully expect us to have fake IVs and extra trainers on hand to help with the subterfuge.

 

[MichiganDad3]

I never cared for time of possession unless you are an inferior team. Points per possession and points surrendered per possession are the stats that matter. If you are inferior, then high TOP reduces the number of possessions and gives you a better chance of getting lucky. As the number of possessions rise, steady-state kicks in, and the best team wins. If we win the turnover battle, we will beat Oregon, unless or special teams is really bad.

 

[BigRedBuster]

Didn't think it was possible. But, for some reason, that article got me even more pumped (and nervous) for this game.