How hard is it to find a gem QB?

H

Huskers44

Five-Star Recruit
I'm just wondering what your guy's views are on finding a gem QB in recruiting. Like how many do you think they are per class and how much rankings take into affect.

First of all, look how many gems are in the NCAA now. ( I probably won't get them all listed.

Lamar Jackson LOU

Sam Darnold USC

Jake Browning WASH

Deshaun Watson Clem

Baker Mayfield OKLA

Those are the QB's right now I'd say are performing the best. Now I'll list some QB's that I think could become gems, feel free to add some.

Josh Rosen UCLA

Deondre Francois FSU

Wilton Speight MICH

Jacob Eason UGA

Jake Bentley SCAR

These are just a few guys I see performing well, also there's probably more or some disagreements. But, saying I probably missed about 10-15 QB's in the NCAA now that are elite or will be would make 25 elite QB's of 5 classes. Including red shirts. So do you think there are 5 or more elite QB's in each recruiting class? Do you think we have any in Gebbia or O'Brien. I for one am very excited for Gebbia. I think he is very talented QB and seems like a good kid that could become a team leader. Paired with O'Brien who also has a fantastic arm. So another question I have do you think O'Brien or Gebbia will be a gem? Maybe just a great career? Good career? Thought it would be fun to see everyone's opinions since it varies so much with this position. I think we are in good shape with these two guys. Personally I think one of them will have a great season and either a good to great career. These guys look the part but college is a whole new ball game. Thank you!

 
It's not easy. But you also need to develop that QB when they are in your program, and sometimes that's even harder.

 
Roughly 120 FBS schools. Figure 4 per school. That's 480 QBs at FBS schools.

If you are saying there are 25 elite QBs at those schools, that means 5% of the current FBS QBs are elite.

That's your answer.

 
Assuming there are about 120 FBS schools and each has 3 QBs on scholarship and one walk on that means there are around 480 players that individual FBS coaches have determined are worthy of recruitment (presumably becasue the believe that have the talent to be a good college QB - otherwise they wouldn't waste the time and money to pursue them at all).

There are more colleges out there than 120 though - maybe even that many more. Presumably a small % of those have potential 'elite' level QBs on their rosters as well. Let's add another 20 or so from there.

So, a total of 500 (divided by 4.5 years as not all guys redshirt of course) = 111 on average per year coming out of high schools.

From that, perhaps a total of 10 per year get a serious shot at the NFL - suggesting they have 'elite' QB skills after they finish college. Of that number, probably more than half don't make it. Leaving roughly 5 prove to be NFL caliber after college.

The odds therefore of landing an eventual NFL caliber QB for most FBS school is less than 1% as the top 20 perennial power 5 schools are going to have the inside track to nearly all of them IF they are identified and recruiting successfuly and they continue playing football and want to play pro ball after all this time.

Assuming that POB and Gebbia are 'elite' potential recruits - I don't know if that can be said at this point - then we are recruiting at a very HIGH level in that position currently. That is a BIG IF though. I think one could argue that those two players are two of the top 5 QB recruits to Nebraska in the past 40 years and maybe ever - on paper! Time will tell.

Vince Feragamo was a pretty highly sought after JUCO QB and Turner Gill also. Not sure how many other Nebraska QBs were all that highly regarded as recruits - unless you are going to include the so-called dual threat QBs as equivalent to the traditional QB recruits. I don't think most would do that at this point although the dual threat is no longer the negative rap it once was by many raters.

 
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