How to Win in the NFL: Trade Your Young, Star QB?

[Mavric]

I was ready to shrug this off.  But the more I read about it, there might be something to it.

The cheat code to unlock a Super Bowl-caliber team in the modern NFL is to find a useful quarterback on a rookie deal. It has been clear going back to the early days of this CBA, when the Seahawks surrounded Russell Wilson with stars and nearly claimed consecutive championships. Last year, the Eagles built a team around Carson Wentz talented enough to win even after Wentz down because of a torn ACL. Tom Brady is obviously not on a rookie deal, but the Patriots have made it to the Super Bowl four times under the new CBA with Brady on a below-market contract.

...

The 3-0 Rams are a model to teams like the Bears and Browns, who are building around quarterbacks taken at or near the top of the draft. The Rams are structuring their extension schedule around Goff, who has two years and $16.5 million in cap charges remaining on his rookie deal. Los Angeles will have one more year of cost control in 2020 with Goff's unguaranteed fifth-year option, which comes to more than $25 million, though teams traditionally use that year to sign their star quarterback to a long-term contract extension.

Time is of the essence with these moves. Wilson eventually got a market-value deal, and while he has continued to play well, the Seahawks' roster has gotten worse around him. Joe Flacco signed a massive contract after playing out the fifth year of his rookie deal with the Ravens, who have been pinching pennies ever since. Cam Newton signed an extension with the Panthers before his 2015 MVP season and subsequent Super Bowl appearance, but his cap hit during that 2015 campaign was a relatively modest $13 million before jumping to $19.5 million and higher. He hasn't been back to the Super Bowl. Even Brady's cap hit -- which hadn't topped $15 million since 2010 -- jumped to $22 million this year, leaving the Patriots with what looks like a thin roster in spots during their indifferent start to the season.

 

[Ulty]

Teams need to be able to afford a wide range of talent in order to balance out their rosters. The Patriots have typically not tied up all of their salaries in long-term deals on expensive superstars, with the exception of Brady. Look at the Packers. Aaron Rodgers deserves to be highly paid, but I don't see them making it to more Super Bowls any time soon, they will have a tough time affording the other pieces they need to make it to the next level under the salary cap. Team success often means guys outperforming their contracts.

 

[Cdog923]

This sounds incredibly stupid.....until you think about it. The Seahawks were very successful until they had to start paying Wilson; this diverted money away from the strength of that team, which was the defense. This is partially why I want KC to win as much as possible, because in a few years, they're going to have to pay Mahomes, Hunt AND Hill.